Mohawk Mountain Snow Report

513 FXUS61 KALY 020616 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 216 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures are expected today before a cold front and rain showers track across the region from northwest to southeast. 2) A mostly dry and seasonable weekend is expected. Thereafter, a strong cold front brings breezy and cooler weather for early next week along with the potential for valley frost at night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... It will be a mild start to the day with temperatures in the 60s for most areas as warm air advection continues ahead of an approaching cold front. Partial sunshine for most areas will allow for temperatures to warm quickly after sunrise prior to the arrival of the front and rain showers. Most areas outside of the Adirondacks will rise into the 70s except lower 80s are likely for portions of the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT. These values will fall short of current daily record highs. Rain showers associated with a cold front will track northwest to southeast during the day reaching areas north and west of Albany this morning and areas south and east this afternoon. Wet bulb effects shortly after the onset of rain will cause temperatures to fall back through the 70s into the 60s. There may be some weak instability present across portions of the mid- Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT for a rumble of thunder to occur if any taller shower can develop. Rainfall, overall, will be rather light with most areas picking up 0.15 inches or less, though some locally higher amounts up to 0.50 inches are possible across portions of the Adirondacks as well as the mid- Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT should a thunderstorm develop. Still, no hydrological impacts are expected. Rain showers fully exit the region by this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure builds into the region behind the cold front tonight and tracks across the region this weekend. Saturday will be a very nice day with plenty of sun and near seasonable temperatures. Similar temperatures are expected on Sunday but there will be an increase in high clouds during the day as separate northern and southern stream systems approach. Sunday looks to remain dry. The best rain chances will be for areas north and west of Albany Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. This front crosses the region on Monday bringing breezy conditions and a brief push of much cooler air as 850 hPa temperatures fall to below 0C. High temperatures in the 50s and 60s Monday will trend down to the upper 40s to upper 50s on Tuesday. Temperatures look to fall back into the 30s for most areas Tuesday night which would increase the potential for frost formation, including within the Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT where the growing season continues. Temperatures rebound back to near normal values for the mid to late week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06z/Sat...VFR conditions will be in place to start the TAF period. Rain showers along a cold front will track across the region from northwest to southeast on Sunday. VFR conditions at the onset of showers may trend to periods of MVFR for vsbys and/or cigs as showers continue. In the wake of the front and showers, some lingering MVFR cigs could continue for a brief time before drier air advancing in brings decreasing clouds and the return to VFR conditions by the end of the TAF period. Winds will remain south to southwesterly 5-10 kt through the early morning hours, then shift to the west to northwest at similar speeds this afternoon into tonight. A few brief gusts to around 20 kt are possible at some sites Sunday afternoon. Periods of LLWS are possible at all sites until around 12z/Sun as winds at 2000 feet remain around 35 kt from the southwest. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...33