Mt Holiday Ski Area Snow Report

103 FXUS61 KILN 120620 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 220 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Saturday into Saturday evening. 2) Additional chances for precipitation are expected during the middle part of next week, along with warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) As surface high pressure over New York moves east, and ridging over the southeastern states does the same, southerly flow over the Ohio Valley will increase today. There is already considerable theta-e advection occurring at 850mb-700mb ahead of a shortwave, with convection ongoing in southern Indiana. This elevated convection will represent the first of several chances of storms over the next 24-48 hours. Precipitable water values are already well over an inch and a half across the area, and some heavy rainfall will be possible as the storms move into the Cincinnati tri-state region after 09Z. The larger concern for heavy rain today will be with diurnally-driven storms ahead of the approaching shortwave this afternoon. Precipitable water values will be about 2 inches, if not slightly higher, suggesting that storms will be capable of efficient rain rates. HREF PMM products suggest the potential for 2-4 inch rainfall amounts in areas with training or slow-moving storms, though certainly the exact placement of where this will occur is outside of the scope of this prediction. The flood watch will remain in place as previously issued, as the diurnal timing and greatest atmospheric moisture content are most aligned with the eastern ILN CWA. Could not discount the possibility of a strong storm this afternoon, but thin CAPE profiles and marginal shear will preclude a larger threat. Going into Sunday, attention will turn to a surface cold front, which is lagging well behind the shortwave moving in on Saturday. This front will remain north of the ILN CWA until Sunday, which means that temperatures will be able to get warm ahead of it, with highs in the lower to upper 80s. This also means that enough instability (around 1500 J/kg SBCAPE) will build to produce some degree of a severe threat. Shear is not especially impressive, but there is some reasonably favorable deep-layer westerly flow. Storm coverage is not looking hugely impressive, though, with PoPs still in the chance range. KEY MESSAGE 2) With the frontal boundary well south of the region on Monday, and high pressure settling in over the Great Lakes, dry conditions are expected for the ILN CWA on Monday. This will also be the coolest day of the period, with highs only in the mid to upper 70s. A larger shift to the weather pattern is expected to begin Tuesday, with strong ridging (or even a closed high) setting up over the southeastern states. The main storm track and frontal zone will remain north of the ILN CWA to begin on Tuesday, but will shift southward as the ridge breaks down going into Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of this occurring, temperatures may get quite warm, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Wednesday. Storm chances will increase on Wednesday, then more significantly on Thursday, as the frontal zone drifts southward into the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An initial round of showers and storms will move into the area after 09Z. A PROB30 for TSRA was included at the Cincinnati sites, and may need to be included elsewhere as the precipitation gets closer. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the area this morning as these showers and storms move through, with the potential for brief IFR conditions. Chances for rain will continue through the day, with a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings. Afternoon thunderstorm chances have been indicated with another PROB30 group. Precipitation will come to an end from late afternoon through early evening, with the potential for MVFR to IFR conditions building into the area early Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for OHZ055-056-064-065-073-074-079>082-088. KY...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for KYZ097>100. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hatzos AVIATION...Hatzos