North York Ski Centre (Earl Bales) Snow Report

296 FXUS61 KBUF 170644 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 244 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The potential for severe thunderstorms has increased Saturday and Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Smoke from active wildfires across south-central Canada will continue to cause poor air quality across far western NY today. 2) There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night, with locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Smoke from active wildfires across south-central Canada will continue to cause poor air quality across far western NY today. The upper level flow became more northerly last night, pushing the main wildfire smoke plume from Canada mostly south of our area though it continues to impact southwestern NY this morning. The flow is expected to back today, allowing the smoke to move north across the region through tonight. Latest HRRR model and REFS show improving conditions near the surface, with most of the smoke staying aloft. The worst conditions remain concentrated across far western NY where an Air Quality Alert remains in effect until midnight. Key Message 2...There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night, with locally heavy rainfall. A potent shortwave trough will dig across the Great Lakes region tonight through Saturday. Surface low pressure will deepen as it moves from the Upper Great Lakes region to the Saint Lawrence River. A warm front will lift northward across the forecast area Friday night with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Can`t rule out an isolated strong storm along the warm front late tonight. The region will be in the warm sector Saturday with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s. The pressure gradient ahead of the surface low and cold front will tighten and southwest winds will increase across the region. A 30-40knot low level jet will move overhead and wind gusts up to 30 mph, with some gusts up to 35 mph northeast of the Lakes are expected. There remains uncertainty in the coverage of convection in the morning, however surface based instability is expected to develop with the potential for 1000-2000 J/kg across western NY. A line of storms may initially form on a pre-frontal trough inland from the Lakes late Saturday morning, with a secondary line of convection with the front Saturday afternoon through evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible during this time with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall as the main threats. An isolated tornado is possible in a favorable environment ahead of a surface low. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for the entire forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. There will be periods of dry time between expected rounds of thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday evening. The threat for thunderstorms will come to an end behind the cold front Saturday night. A few showers may linger into Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Smoke from wildfires in Canada continues to impact terminals across western NY this morning. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue across the western Southern Tier and portions of the far western Finger Lakes region. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere, however ceilings between 035-050 are possible near KBUF/KGVQ this morning. High pressure will remain across the region today with variable winds. Near surface smoke is expected to improve across western NY today, however the HRRR and REFS indicates that less dense smoke moving back northward. VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening, however we will need to monitor upstream observations closely. A warm front is expected to move across the region Friday night. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible. Outlook... Saturday through Saturday night...Restrictions likely in periodic showers and thunderstorms. Lingering smoke possible. Sunday and Monday...Fair weather and VFR expected. Monday night and Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Smoke from Canadian wildfires will result in periods of reduced visibility on the lower Great Lakes today. The worst of the conditions will be through tonight on Lake Erie, where a Dense Smoke Advisory remains in effect through 4 AM this morning for visibility down to one nautical mile. The advisory may be extended if visibility is at one nautical mile or less. Light winds and gentle waves will continue on the Lakes today. A warm front will pass across the lower Great Lakes late tonight into Saturday with south-southwest winds freshening to 15-20 knots. Waves will build to near 3 feet Saturday. A cold front will move across the region late Saturday with west and northwest winds developing behind it, with a period of small craft conditions likely developing on Lake Ontario late Saturday and Saturday night. Thunderstorms chances will increase starting early Saturday with the warm front and be possible throughout the day until the cold front moves through. High pressure builds in Sunday and persists through Monday with winds and waves subsiding. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001-002- 010>012-019-020-085. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK/TMA