North York Ski Centre (Earl Bales) Snow Report

487 FXUS61 KBUF 110637 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 237 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor adjustments with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periodic chances for showers and storms will continue toward the western Southern Tier through midweek, with mainly dry weather expected for the remainder of western and north-central NY. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Periodic chances for showers and storms will continue toward the western Southern Tier through midweek, with mainly dry weather expected for the remainder of western and north- central NY. A cold front sagging slowly southward across the area early this morning will settle somewhere just south of the NY/PA state line by late morning/midday. This will serve as the focal point for periodic showers and thunderstorms as ill-timed convectively augmented shortwaves/ridge riders travel southeast along or near this boundary. Due to the close proximity of the stalled boundary to the western Southern Tier, it is expected that this area may at least be grazed by the northern periphery of these systems as they slide by just to the south, bringing the potential for periodic rounds of showers and storms through midweek. Otherwise, aside from a few showers/storms from the Genesee Valley westward this morning, drier air residing to the north of the stalled front over northern PA is expected to provide mainly dry weather for the remainder of our area through at least midday Wednesday before the next system within a persistent northwesterly flow regime approaches from the northwest bringing the next chance for a few showers/storms by Wednesday afternoon. The passage of the cold front will bring little change in our temperatures through midweek, with highs right about where they should be as we head toward the middle of August. However, there will be a noticeable drop in humidity levels, making it feel more comfortable. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the 06Z TAFs, a muggy airmass lingers across the TAF region, and this should result in IFR flight conditions developing across the western Southern Tier...either by ceiling or visibility, and remaining just past sunrise. A weak frontal boundary will drop across the TAF region just after sunrise, and ahead of this feature a few showers and thunderstorms may develop across far WNY, centered upon 08Z to 14Z and generally from KIAG/KBUF and points southward to the KJHW terminal. Behind the front a weak bubble of high pressure will bring slightly drier air southward such that VFR flight conditions are likely, expanding southward to include the KJHW terminal by late morning...with these flight conditions then persisting through the remainder of the TAF cycle. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of periodic showers and thunderstorms with localized MVFR or worse conditions possible. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A cold front will settle slowly southward through lower Great Lakes region this morning, before stalling out near central Lake Erie by around midday. An overall weak pressure gradient is expected to remain in place through much of the work week, with no more than mainly light to gentle breezes expected through at least Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...JM