Powder Ridge Ski Area Snow Report

770 FXUS63 KMPX 120640 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 140 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain arrives Monday, but forecast rain amounts continue to trend lower. - A cooler pattern has arrived with highs in the 60s to low 70s through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue across western WI early this morning ahead of a wavy cold front located from around Lake Mille Lacs southward to Buffalo and Hutchinson to St. James. Cooler and drier air is slowly filtering into western MN, along with clearing skies. Some wind gusts are noted in the CAA regime but they are still relatively light. Winds will ease throughout the day as a high pressure ridge axis builds in making for a pleasant day as temperatures climb into the 70s. A short wave will rotate southeast across MN into WI Sunday. This may bring a chance of showers across southern MN into IA and SD, but dry high pressure to the north will limit the northern extent of any precip. The high will slide east to the Great Lakes Sunday night and warm air advection will begin across the Upper Midwest as a potent trough advances into the northern Plains. Very strong moisture advection will be brought on by a 55 kt LLJ Monday and pwats are expected to increase to just short of 2 inches. Isentropic lift will allow widespread showers to develop across the region, but the trough will swing through quickly and limit the residence time of the activity. In addition, the surface warm front will remain well to the south across southwestern IA and keep the more efficient thunderstorms anchored there. Models continue to trend down on QPF, ranging from a GEFS mean around a 1/3 inch on the low side to 1/2-3/4 inch with most of the other ensemble systems. Given the lift and moisture in place, thinking at least a half inch is probable. If heavier rates sustain themselves for a little while longer then we`ll see numbers closer to an inch. A front will drape itself from northern WI to southeast MN and northwest IA Monday night. The entrance region of the LLJ will strengthen across IA and impinge on the front allowing for another round of showers and storms to develop along it before sliding southeast Tuesday. The highest QPF will be found in this corridor with 1-2 inches expected. For the rest of next week, zonal flow will continue with mid level ridging remaining anchored in place across the south. A nearly stationary front will draped from the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley and will keep the hot and humid air well to the south. It will also act as a focus for numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms. At this time the odds of being under the influence of dry high pressure outweigh the prospects of any significant rain associated with the front for us. Seasonably cool air will remain in place until further notice with highs in the 60s and low 70s and lows in the 40s or 50s. Some 30s are possible across northern MN and northern/central WI at times. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Line of showers and storms will be east of EAU to open the 6z period. Cannot rule out a trailing shower at RNH/EAU early in the period, however heavier precipitation chances have largely diminished. A passing cold front has resulted in a wind shift out of the WNW at RWF & AXN and will continue eastward through daybreak. Made a few minor updates to timing of the expected wind shift at the eastern MN/western WI terminals. WNW winds will gust up to 20kts or so through much of the day. Otherwise, VFR with mid-to-high clouds moving across the Upper Midwest. KMSP...Precipitation chances have departed to the east of the terminal to open the 6z period. Winds shift out of the WNW as a frontal passage occurs between 7-9z. Breezy WNW winds gust up to 20kts late morning through the afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...-SHRA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 10-15G30kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Strus