Ski Dagmar Snow Report

061 FXUS61 KBUF 020705 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 305 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes made with this forecast update as current forecast trends remain on track with current observations and model guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. Some storms may be severe through tonight, with the best timing late this afternoon into the overnight hours. 2) Quieter weather, overall, expected Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. Some storms may be severe through tonight, with the best timing late this afternoon into the overnight hours. A potent shortwave trough across northern Ontario, Canada this morning will fill in as it moves further east, entering the Quebec province. Meanwhile at the surface, a lingering synoptic from will continue to remain rather stationary across the region today, lying between the southern shores of Lake Ontario and the northern shore of Lake Erie. As the low drifts east today, expect the surface front to gradually shift northward across Lake Ontario. Given the placement of the front, areas south of the front are currently lying within the warm sector of the surface low and are experiencing a warm, soupy airmass as seen by observations at 06Z, where temperatures range in the mid 60s to near 70, with a 2 degree spread in temperatures and dewpoints. A cold front is progged to cross the area late today/tonight, however ahead of the frontal passage, the aforementioned high humidity currently in place will play a contributing factor to the potential for heavy rainfall today and tonight. Isolated scattered showers/thunderstorms currently across the Hudson Bay this morning, will continue to drop east-southeastward across the Lake Ontario and into the Genesee Valley this morning. While the previous evening`s sounding depicted quite the elevated mixed layer, and models are depicting a downward trend, a few stronger storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging straight line wind gusts, will be possible around daybreak and into the morning hours. A couple more additional rounds of organized showers and thunderstorm are expected for the remainder of the day, with attention drawn to the late evening into the overnight hours. Deep layer bulk shear will remain moderate to strong with some weak to moderate CAPE (including elevated CAPE) due to moist isentropic lift ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough axis passage, along with moist, low-level convergence ascent along both surface trough axes of the warm and cold fronts will support favorable environments for low-level vertical wind shear. The greatest coverage for showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and will last towards midnight, as daytime heating in the warm and moist sector will yield moderate to strong boundary layer CAPE. This is also when The greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon through early evening, when Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy rainfall are expected Wednesday through Wednesday night. This is when severe storms in the form of multicells, including bow echoes, and supercells, appear most-likely. Damaging straight-line wind gusts and damaging hail up to golf ball-size are expected to be the main severe convective weather hazards due to the expectation of steep low-level lapse rates/large DCAPE and mid-level lapse rates near 7C/km contributing to sizable MUCAPE in the hail growth zone. A tornado or two is possible since low-level winds may veer and strengthen significantly with height, resulting in sizable surface- based ESRH amidst favorably-low mixed layer LCL`s. Localized flash flooding is also possible where showers and storms manage to train, which should be the case along the warm front and any outflow boundaries oriented roughly west-to-east, which will be largely parallel to westerly to west-northwesterly mean mid-level flow. KEY MESSAGE 2...Quieter weather, overall, expected Thursday night into Friday. Mainly fair weather is expected Thursday night through Friday as a surface high pressure ridge builds from northern ON and vicinity, behind the cold front. However, northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs will continue to impact our region. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes and low- level convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes attendant to the shortwaves may release weak, yet sufficient instability, including elevated CAPE, to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday night. Temperatures and humidity levels will drop back down to tolerable levels with lows reaching mainly the mid 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Friday. Highs should reach the 70`s late Friday afternoon. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A wavy stationary boundary will remain draped across western and north-central NY through this evening, supporting a warm and humid airmass to reside across the region. Additionally, with the front and warm moist air overhead, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. Patchy fog has developed across a majority of the region, supporting a conglomeration of MVFR/IFR/VILIR vsbys especially at KJHW, KROC, and KART early this morning. VILFR/MVFR/IFR in low stratus will mainly be confined to the higher terrain, with some across the Niagara Frontier. An upper level disturbance is expected to cross the region in the next 3 to 5 hours. A few showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible across the western terminals 09-12z. Brief periods of IFR or below is expected in showers and thunderstorms. Any fog should dissipate by mid morning, leaving mainly VFR conditions through early afternoon. However, low stratus may take longer to erode across the higher terrain. Area of showers/isolated storms associated with the aforementioned upper level disturbance located over western NY to start the day, will then make there way from across the region through the first half of today. Another round of organized showers and thunderstorms is expected this evening. There remains uncertainty in timing however gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall may produce IFR or below in thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Friday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog with local IFR each late night and early morning across the Southern Tier. && .MARINE... A wavy stationary front draped across the Lakes this morning, will remain across the region through tonight. Southwest winds up to 10 to 15 knots are expected on Lake Erie today, producing a light to moderate chop. Winds will be lighter and more variable on Lake Ontario due to the wavering frontal zone. A cold front will move southeastward through the region Thursday ahead of a ridge of high pressure building from northern Ontario and vicinity through Friday. West to northwest winds and a light chop are expected behind the front. Winds, mainly northwest to northeast, and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the upcoming holiday weekend as the aforementioned high pressure ridge continues to build. There is a chance of thunderstorms at times through midweek. Thunderstorm chances peak late this afternoon through the first half of tonight. Some of these storms may produce strong winds, hail, and locally higher waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAL/Jaszka AVIATION...EAL MARINE...EAL