Ski Dagmar snow report

587 FXUS61 KBUF 140703 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 303 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A brief period of dangerous heat today, with very warm, but less humid conditions Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...A brief period of dangerous heat today, with very warm, but less humid conditions Wednesday. Large dome of high pressure will continue to expand into the lower Great Lakes region today, with 850mb temps rising into the the 22C- 25C range (99th percentile for mid July). This will support highs reaching the mid to even upper 90s across the Lake Plains, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes, with upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Combining this very hot airmass with a plume of higher moisture advecting into the region with Tds reaching the low 70s across the lower elevations will result in heat indices climbing into the lower 100s across the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes region, even as high as 105 degrees. Elsewhere, peak heat indices will reach the mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for all of Western and North-Central NY from 11 AM to 8 PM. A fairly stout 30-40 knot LLJ will be located just 1-2 kft off the deck this afternoon into this evening, allowing a good portion of those stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface. When combined with a tightening pressure gradient, expect to see frequent WSW to SW`erly gusts in the 25-35 mph range, with a few gusts to 40 mph not out of the question northeast of Lake Erie and east through northeast of Lake Ontario. This will at least provide some natural relief to the heat, especially across those areas downwind of the lakes. That said, with lake surface temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s, it`s cooling effects will be much less pronounced than earlier in the season. Very warm and humid conditions will remain into at least Wednesday morning, before an approaching mid level trough and surface cold front drop south out of eastern Canada ushering in cooler and drier air from north to south from late morning through the afternoon. High temperatures will still range through the 80s by early Wednesday afternoon, but dropping humidity levels will keep heat indices about the same, or possibly even a bit lower than the actual air temperature. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period, with just passing upper level cirrus at times. The main impact for this TAF cycle will be increasing winds. Expect W to SW winds to ramp up through this morning with frequent gusts into the 20-30 knot range later this morning into this evening, and up to 35 knots possible at KBUF/KART. The tail end of the higher winds aloft will linger into this evening, so as surface winds start to come down, there may be a brief period of LLWS during this time before the LLJ exits. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a thunderstorm. && .MARINE... SW to WSW`erly winds will increase to 15-20 knots, with building waves through the morning hours. Winds will then continue to strengthen through the afternoon, leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions developing on both lakes. Winds will become WSW at 15-25 knots this afternoon, with gusts to 30 knots possible. Waves will increase to 3-6 ft across Lake Ontario (highest over the eastern end), and 2-5 ft across eastern Lake Erie. SW to W`erly winds will decrease tonight behind a cold front, becoming generally around 10-15 knots later tonight through Wednesday. Waves will be slower to subside, dropping to 2-4 ft across eastern Lake Ontario by Wednesday morning, and 1-2 ft elsewhere. && .CLIMATE... Here are the record high temperatures for today: Buffalo, NY 92 (2005) Rochester, NY97 (1952) Watertown, NY 91 (1952) && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM/SGK CLIMATE...SGK