Ski Denton Snow Report

419 FXUS61 KCTP 100818 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 418 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Level 2/5 severe thunderstorm risk expanded eastward for today && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and locally heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and evening 2) Humid with rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms focused over southwest Pennsylvania through midweek && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and locally heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and evening Small clusters of sub-severe storms over the NW quad of PA at 0730Z have been weakening as they track to the east per radar and IR satellite trends. This activity appears to be associated with subtle vortmax feature near the OH/PA line. We adjusted POPs higher near/north of I80 to account for this as the storms continue to track eastward through daybreak. The question remains what the convective evolution will be from around midday through the afternoon and evening. HREF/REFS model data favors intensification of t-storm clusters reaching the northwest PA vicinity by midday and tracking east-southeast through the afternoon. If this scenario plays out, storms will likely pose a risk for damaging wind gusts within a humid and moderately unstable airmass. SPC expanded the level 2/5 SLGT risk eastward and now includes all of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Humid with rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms focused over southwest Pennsylvania through midweek Model trends are focusing primary risk for severe storms and heavy rain across southwest PA on Tuesday. This area lies closest to the equatorward edge of the westerlies within very moist instability gradient. SPC and WPC have outlooked this area (sw PA) with a a level 2/5 severe storm risk and 2/4 excessive rain risk. Rounds of showers and storms remain possible through midweek. Multiple shortwave disturbances will traverse the northern tier and interact with a slow moving frontal zone. The combination of rich low level moisture, instability and repeated forcing along the boundary will support some potential for periodic clusters of storms with locally heavy rainfall. WPC excessive rain outlooks (EROs) have shifted farther to the south/west and only clip the far southwest portion of the CWA on days 3-5 or Wed-Fri. The end of the week into the start of the weekend looks less humid (more refreshing) as push of relatively cooler and drier air accompanies seasonably strong/Canadian high pressure building southeast from the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Remnant MCS over western PA as of 06Z will track eastward through the morning hours, likely decaying as it encounters limited instability (MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg east of the Allegheny Ridge). Timing this feature out across the terminals, PROB30s for -TSRA were included between 08Z-14Z, with confidence still low regarding the system`s evolution. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates of around 6-7 C/km with eastward extent may allow for the system to persist for longer, while relatively limited moisture (PWATs of around 1") and the lower MUCAPE favor a continued downtrend. For this time, the feature was timed out in case it persists. Low-level moisture may support a period of MVFR cumulus as the boundary layer deepens during the morning/afternoon hours, with higher confidence in MVFR ceilings over our westernmost terminals (KBFD/KJST) & decreasing confidence with eastward extent. Otherwise, the main window for aviation hazards is expected to be the afternoon/evening from scattered thunderstorms, with moderate instability (MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg), decent support for gusty downdraft winds (DCAPE around 1000 J/kg), and favorable wind shear for organized convection (35 kts of 0-6 km wind shear) in place. This parameter space supports multicell clusters and squall lines capable of gusty to locally severe wind gusts. Timing of these potential storms will depend on upstream initiation and organization, with cold pool development potentially accelerating storm motion. Storm coverage/intensity is expected to decrease after 00Z Tuesday, though additional showers/thundershowers can`t be ruled out. VFR is currently favored at most terminals Monday night, with the main exception being KBFD where onshore flow from the Great Lakes may bring restrictions due to low stratus and mist. Outlook... Mon-Thu...Scattered showers/storms. Restrictions possible. Fri...Mainly VFR. A few showers or storms possible over southwestern PA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare