Ski Denton Snow Report

408 FXUS61 KCTP 300810 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 410 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Level 2 severe thunderstorm risk introduced for Tuesday (9/1) && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Late summer heat+humidity to close August and open September 2) Bouts of heavy rain & severe storms possible Monday-Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer heat+humidity to close August and open September Strong upper ridge expanding east-northeastward from the south central Plains through the TN Valley into the southern Mid Atlantic and Southeast states will deliver a stretch of above normal late summer warmth and very humid conditions to close out August and kickoff September. Forecast max/min temperatures are projected to rise several degrees above the historical average Sunday-Thursday with the largest departure from normal (+10-20F) found in midweek overnight lows. The late summer heat is forecast to peak Tuesday and Wednesday with max heat indices approaching advisory levels in the mid to upper 90s across parts of south central PA. The well above normal temperatures combined with high humidity and very warm overnight lows will result in level 2 (moderate) to level 3 (major) HeatRisk values Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing troughing across the Northeast U.S. should drop temperatures back toward seasonal climo by Friday/Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Bouts of heavy rain and severe storms possible through late week A series of mid level impulses tracking eastward along the northern periphery of the elongated 500mb ridge will interact with anomalous moisture/instability and strong flow aloft to produce a few episodes of heavy rainfall and possible severe weather through late week. There are typical timing and amplitude differences of the smaller scale disturbances that will need to be resolved, but the overall convective signal from operational/ensemble/ML/AI guidance is supportively bullish. There is a growing signal for severe storms and heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. SPC introduced a level 2 severe t-storm risk for D3/Tuesday and maintained the 15% or level 2 equivalent risk for D4/Wednesday. WPC continues to cover parts of CPA with level 1 excessive rainfall outlooks which may be refined/upgraded as the convective details become more clear and confidence in timing and location increases. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread VFR conds were observed this evening, with some high cloudiness beginning to drift in from the northwest. Expect VFR conds to continue into the overnight hours, with winds diminishing. Towards daybreak, low level southeasterly flow may lead to the development/NWD advection of a stratocu deck over the Lower Susq Valley, with cigs of 2500-4000 ft AGL. This could lead to a few hours of MVFR restrictions at LNS and MDT toward daybreak Sunday. Sunday will see a light sfc W/SW wind of 5-10 kts develop across Central PA. Any MVFR cigs over the Lower Susq Valley should lift by midday. A few SHRA or TSRA could develop later in the day, esp across northern PA, but most of the day should be dry. Outlook... Mon-Thu...Scattered SHRA/TSRA with brief restrictions possible; morning fog possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Evanego