Ski Gull Snow Report

902 FXUS63 KDLH 300812 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 312 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect today and this evening for a high risk of rip currents at Twin Ports beaches. - An active pattern arrives Sunday night and continues into Monday with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms on Sunday night into Monday morning may become strong to severe from the Brainerd Lakes to I-35 corridor. - Depending on the time of arrival of an occluded front on Monday, additional severe thunderstorms may occur over northwest Wisconsin on Monday afternoon. Uncertainty on this second round of severe storms is high at this time. - A more benign pattern settles over the area around mid-week before additional chances for rain arrive later in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Strong northeast winds and increasing wave action will result in a high risk for rip currents at Twin Ports beaches today and this evening. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued. Also seeing some potential for areas of dense fog development early this morning if the current very low cloud heights (300-700 ft above the ground) are able to build closer to the ground. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Rain showers and maybe a few general thunderstorms are expected this morning across the southern half of the area. No severe weather is expected with this morning activity. As the day progresses, conditions will remain quiet but humid, with skies varying between overcast and partly sunny. Capping will keep most of the region dry through the afternoon hours. Strong northeast winds will lead to increased waves along beaches in the Twin Ports, which will lead to an increased chance for rip currents today through this evening. Another round of showers and storms returns tonight. Some storms could be strong to severe, with the highest likelihood focused in north central Minnesota and extending east towards Lake Mille Lacs to Hibbing to International Falls. Due to their elevated nature from the cap aloft and a similar environment to the previous discussion below, the main hazards will still be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. An abundance of moisture will also lead to periods of heavy rain as a warm front lifts northward across our region. Timing on the passage of the occluded front will determine chances for severe weather Monday afternoon as well. Most models show the front moving out of the area by time any convection is initiated, but there is a low chance that they form before the front exits the Northland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 A weak amplitude shortwave has been propagating through today, with scattered showers associated with isentropic ascent moving downstream of the CWA this afternoon. In the wake of this precip, skies have been varying between overcast in the southern half of the CWA to mostly sunny near the International Border. Conditions stay on the quieter side this afternoon into tonight as a 500mb ridge briefly slides over the area. This ridge will be fairly messy though with multiple vorticity maxima propagating through tonight into early tomorrow morning, which could develop an isolated shower. Despite these shots of vorticity coming through, keeping the potential low at a 20-25% chance due to a significant cap expected to develop around 800mb as southerly winds bring WAA to the area. This WAA advection will usher in warmer temperatures on Sunday for the southern edge of the CWA, with highs increasing to the low 80s and dewpoint temps becoming sticky in the mid to upper 60 degree range. The aforementioned capping inversion will likely inhibit convective initiation through the daytime hours on Sunday with skies varying between partly to mostly cloudy. A warm front associated with vertically-stacked low pressure over the Canadian Prairies is anticipated to lift north on Sunday night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms that will continue until Monday morning. A sizable amount of instability will be associated with the warm front, with MUCAPE from CAMs indicating potential values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range on Sunday night around the Brained Lakes towards the I-35 corridor. This will also be accompanied by favorable 0-6km bulk shear up to 40 knots. However, it`s worth noting that this is a large divergence from global models, which put timing of peak instability and shear later into Monday. This increases uncertainty with this warm fropa. If timing of peak instability happens more overnight, large hail to ping pong ball size is the primary hazard with damaging winds being unlikely due to the low-level cap. SPC has the southwestern corner of the CWA in a Marginal Risk on Sunday night. On Monday, the severe thunderstorm potential shifts into northwest Wisconsin as the occluded front associated with the sfc low moves through. Again, impacts on Monday will largely be dependent on timing of this occluded fropa. If the earlier timing becomes favored, most of the convection will likely be exiting by early Monday afternoon and severe storms will be limited to elevated hailers. If the later timing favored in global models, such as the GFS, occurs then this front will be sweeping through northwest Wisconsin during peak diurnal heating and allow for 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. With 0-6km bulk shear remaining around 40-45 knots, this could lead to supercell development. If supercells develop, all hazards are possible including damaging winds to 70 mph, large hail up to golf ball size, and locally heavy rain with PWAT to 1.6". A tornado or two also can`t be ruled out as hodographs indicate a moderately favorable 60-100 m2/s2 of SRH available to right-moving supercells. This is highly uncertain at this time though given the discrepancies in timing between the various models. Following the occluded frontal passage on Monday, a more benign pattern settles over the region for mid-week with slightly cooler high temps. Low pressure, following a typical Colorado Low type track, will bring a chance for additional showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Additional precipitation will be possible later in the week as the 500mb pattern remains active. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Patchy fog and low stratus is expected overnight before conditions slowly rise throughout the morning. Conditions will improve this afternoon ahead of storm development late this evening and overnight. The bulk of storm activity, however, will be after 06Z. Wind swill largely be out of the east to southeast today up to 15 kts. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Northeast winds will strengthen today into Monday morning as low pressure moves into the region. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all nearshore waters starting this morning for gusts to 25-30 kt and wave heights of 2 to 5 ft. Thunderstorms are possible tonight into Monday as an occluded front moves east. Winds ease below 10 kt late Monday before turning southwest with gusts of 15-25 kt on Tuesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Fire weather concerns remain low overall as minimum relative humidity stays above 40 percent through the week. Easterly winds become breezy today into tonight, gusting 15 to 25 mph. Winds will shift to the west on Monday morning as a front sweeps through. Strong to severe storms Sunday night and Monday could produce erratic winds, hail, and lightning. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-148. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Monday for LSZ146-147-150. && $$ UPDATE...Rothstein DISCUSSION...Unruh AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML