Snowpark Meadowlands Snow Report

405 FXUS61 KOKX 200802 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 402 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch has been issued for northeast NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester and western Long Island. Confidence in heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding has increased as well as total rainfall amounts. The SPC has lifted the marginal risk of severe weather into portions of our area including most of northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and potential thunderstorms move through the area this afternoon through the evening. A period of heavy rainfall is possible, particularly for northeast NJ, NYC, southern Westchester and Western Long Island, where a Flood Watch is now in effect. For the Watch area, peak hourly rainfall rates could reach around 2 inches with total rainfall amounts expected to be between 1.5 and 2.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. 2) Unsettled weather is expected again this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front approaches the area today and will stall offshore through the weekend while the eastern US remains under a persistent upper level trough. A shortwave rounding the base of this trough can currently be seen entering the Ohio Valley. This shortwave will continue to approach our area and aid in development of a frontal wave. An area of showers and potential thunderstorms will move through the area this afternoon through the evening and bring a potential period of heavy rainfall. Guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours that this frontal wave will likely track just south of the area. Even though we will likely fall just north of any significant instability, strong dynamics are expected given a right entrance region of an upper level jet, the aforementioned shortwave and frontogenetic forcing. This forcing will be moving towards a plume of high pwat (2+ inches) that looks to just stretch into our area. Additionally, deep saturation is seen in model soundings with the warm cloud layer approaching 15kft. Most CAMs are in agreement with this set up being able to produce rainfall rates as high as around 2 inches in one hour. The CAMs have also come into a bit better agreement that these rates could extend into southern portions of our area. This is seen in the latest HREF which shows the northern extent of the 30% chance of 3 inches in 3 hours just touching our southwestern most zones. This has been an indicator of flash flooding for events in the past. Given all of this, confidence is high enough to issue a Flood Watch for northeast NJ, NYC, southern Westchester and western Long Island. The Watch runs from 2pm today through 2am Friday, but may be able to come down a bit earlier for the zones west of Long Island. Some of the latest guidance really slows the wave as it passes south of Long Island. This could bring lingering moderate to heavy rainfall for eastern locations through tonight. At this time, this is not the likely scenario given loss of more significant forcing, however, if guidance continues to trend in this direction, an expansion of the Watch farther east for Long Island and southern CT can not be completely ruled out. While still low confidence, given high shear and little instability, severe thunderstorms for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island can not be completely ruled out. This would be mainly an isolated damaging wind gust threat, but given decent low level curvature in model soundings an isolated tornado is also possible. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Guidance continues to struggle with the next wave of low pressure for the first half of the weekend as the upper level trough become negatively tilted. Regardless, another period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible. The WPC continued to include the entire area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. A cold front approaches on Sunday and will bring a chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. CIPS and CSU MLP continue to hint at the potential for severe thunderstorms, but it is still too far out for any specifics. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front approaches the terminals later Thursday, with an associated wave of low pressure forming along it. The front and low pressure will move east of the region late Thursday night. VFR conditions start out the TAF period until Thursday afternoon. There could be some brief MVFR to IFR within showers and/or thunderstorms especially within any heavier rainfall. Timeframe for these is generally between 18Z and 02Z, relatively earlier farther west and relatively later farther east. Showers could linger into early AM Friday but overall, expecting mainly VFR conditions to return late Thursday night. Winds during the TAF period will be less than 10 kts but direction will be quite variable. Low confidence with the wind direction forecast. We will likely see some terminals have their sea breezes latter half of the afternoon into early evening. Towards end of TAF period, a general more northeast to north flow is forecast. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible to refine timing of showers/thunderstorms, which could be a few hours off from TAF. If confidence increases in thunderstorms, PROB30s will become TEMPOs. Amendments possible for the timing of IFR and MVFR, which could be a few hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR. A few showers and MVFR possible during the day. Higher chances of showers and MVFR late at night. Saturday: Showers likely. Possible thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR at times. Sunday: A chance of showers. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times. Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions generally continue through the middle of next week. However, with some uncertainty in strength of a wave of low pressure tonight into Friday, brief 25kt gusts can not be ruled out. Rip Currents: There is a low risk of rip currents today and Friday given lack of significant winds and weak swell components. There is potential for forecast winds to trend higher for tonight into Friday, but this would be out of the E/NE which should not be enough to increase the risk level. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179. NJ...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JT AVIATION...JM MARINE...JT