Snowpark Meadowlands Snow Report

440 FXUS61 KOKX 110622 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 122 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key messages 1 and 3 have been updated, along with the marine section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low pressure will impact the region from Thursday into early Saturday. This will bring a period of prolonged rainfall with only a brief chance of rain mixed with snow far N & W of NYC Friday night. 2) Coastal flooding will be possible (mostly minor) Thursday and Friday during high tide cycles for portions of the coast, particularly during the daytime high tides. 3) High pressure returns dry weather for most of the weekend through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low pressure with upper support is expected to slowly strengthen as it shifts east from the Ohio Valley tonight and passes nearby or just south of us Thursday afternoon into night. The low then lingers just offshore to our east during Friday as the upper low approaches the region. The storm system finally shifts away towards the Canadian Maritimes Friday night into Saturday. Generally speaking, precipitation chances are highest from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Regarding impacts, there is a chance of wet snow being mixed in with rainfall for the higher elevations well N of the city as early as Friday morning, but this is more likely Friday night. Too early for high confidence regarding any potential accumulation there, but it would appear that any accumulation would be minor with limited impacts as precip chances will be diminishing by the time enough cold air filters in for higher probability of accumulating snow being a precip type. Flooding impacts due to rainfall don`t appear to be much of an issue in light of progged rainfall amounts through the event around 0.5" to 1.5" and current flash flood guidance values. But the latest CAMs have increased MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg Thursday afternoon with low-level convergence along the developing low. This will be worth monitoring for some moderate downpours, briefly heavy, especially for urbanized areas such as the NYC metro. Isolated rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches is not out of the realm of possibility. Wind impact chances look low so far as well since the storm doesn`t strengthen more rapidly until it`s well northeast of us. So while winds should pick up Friday night into Saturday, gusts likely remain below advisory thresholds. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low pressure forecast to move off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday will bring the potential for minor coastal flooding during the daytime high tide cycles Thursday and Friday. There is also some uncertainty with how far to the south the low track will be of LI. The latter is important to the strength and duration of the easterly flow on Thursday. Most locations will be need 1.5 to 2.5 ft above astronomical high tide to get to the minor flood benchmark. Right now, stayed with a model consensus for the surge forecast. This puts the typical, more vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays of western LI and SW CT coast, right around the minor coastal flood benchmark. Stevens NYHOPs does show the 95th percentile getting into moderate flooding at Freeport. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A large area of high pressure builds in from the west this weekend through Tuesday. After any potential lingering precipitation from the exiting storm system Saturday morning, dry weather prevails through Tuesday with temperatures running around 5 degrees below normal through the period. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds over the region this morning, then sliding east and offshore this afternoon. A frontal system approaches from the west into Thursday morning. VFR. W to WNW flow under 10 kt shifts S then E late this afternoon and into the evening. Winds may become light and variable for several hours after 21Z, before E/NE flow develops toward 3Z Thu. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two. Flow may become variable for several hours after 21Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tonight: VFR. MVFR cigs moving in from the NW, with terminals N and W of the city seeing MVFR and SHRA after 06Z, low chance for metro terminals of MVFR by around daybreak Thu. Rain becoming likely from the NYC metros north/west after midnight. Thursday: Cond lowering to MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. E winds G20kt. Thursday night: MVFR/IFR in rain. NE winds 15G20-25kt, becoming N after midnight. Friday: MVFR/IFR in rain. NW winds 15G20-25kt. Friday night: Still a chance of MFR or lower cond. Rain at most terminals, except a snow/rain mix possible at KSWF. NW winds G20kt in the evening. Saturday: Chance of MVFR with rain showers at KISP/KGON, otherwise VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt. Sunday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-advisory conditions prevail through tonight with a weak pressure gradient. Low pressure then brings an extended period of SCA conditions for Thursday through early Sunday on most, if not all waters. Gale force gusts are possible Friday into Saturday on ocean waters, but uncertainty remains due to storm track. For now, only forecasting near-gales. All waters will return to sub SCA levels Sunday afternoon/evening and remain so into the start of next week. Low pressure then brings an extended period of SCA conditions for Thursday through Sunday on most, if not all waters. Gale force gusts will be possible on just about all ocean waters Friday through Saturday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BR AVIATION...JP/DR MARINE...BR