Snowpark Meadowlands Snow Report

264 FXUS61 KOKX 120652 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 252 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A flood watch has been issued for portions of the area late tonight into the first half of Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers with the potential of heavy downpours, a few thunderstorms, and isolated to scattered flash flooding late tonight into Sunday morning. A flood watch has been issued for portions of the area. 2) Dry and near seasonable temperatures through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Tranquil weather today will transition to a period of showers with the potential of heavy downpours, a few thunderstorms, and isolated to scattered flash flooding late tonight into Sunday morning, potentially early Sunday afternoon out east. A flood watch has been issued for NE NJ, NYC metro, and S Westchester 2 am through 10 am Sunday. A flood watch has also been issued for Long Island, coastal CT, Northern Middlesex, and Northern New London 5 am through 2 pm Sunday. A southern stream shortwave passing over the area late tonight into Sunday morning with will tap into a tropical airmass (can see this plume of moisture on GOES-EAST Water Vapor over the southeast) with PWATs increasing to 2-2.3" by early Sunday morning. A warm front will also approach the area and potentially set up somewhere over the coast/Long Island on Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure may also track along the warm front. These ingredients will lead to showers with heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday morning. The first half of the night will be mainly dry before showers overspread from west to east after midnight, mainly after 2 am. The latest high-resolution modeling is showing the potential for enhancement of the showers along the warm front, especially Sunday morning. This is still a bit difficult to resolve given the sensitivity of the exact location of the warm front by Sunday morning. However, signals are starting to point to this boundary lying close to if not over Long Island/S CT after day break Sunday morning. There may also be some added lift aloft from a passing jet streak over northern New England. A deep warm cloud layer (14-15 kft) supports efficient warm rain processes. Instability is weak, but may trend slightly higher Sunday morning if the warm front lifts over the southern portion of the area. The 00z HREF is showing probabilities of greater than 3 inches in 3 hours around 30 percent over urban NE NJ, NYC into Western Long Island from 09-12z Sunday with some areas 40-60 percent over central LI into the central portions of CT coast 12-15z Sunday, and around 30 percent for southeastern CT 15z-18z Sunday. We have noted in recent flash flooding events that at least a 30 percent chance of 3 inches in 3 hours has often resulted in flash flooding in parts of the urban corridor. The 00z REFS also indicated a probability greater than 50 percent for greater than 3 inch amounts in some of these same areas, specifically east of the NYC metro. There is also about a 20-30 percent probability of around 2 inch per hour rates based of data from the WPC Urban Rain Rate Dashboard. Per collaboration with WPC and neighboring offices, a slight risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been introduced for the southern half of the area tonight (Day 1) and the eastern half on Sunday (Day 2), mainly for the morning and early afternoon. The deep moisture and lift push east of the area around midday Sunday. The heaviest rain should push east of the NYC metro shortly after 12z, but could linger close to midday further east across Long Island, southern Connecticut. Average rainfall amounts range from 1 to around 2 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible with the greatest potential of locally 3-5" across portions of Long Island and coastal CT, but could be locally up to 3-5". The limited instability should prevent a severe thunderstorm threat, but will need to watch along the warm front as added shear/helicity could develop an isolated severe storm. SPC currently just has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook. A trailing cold front will move through Sunday evening with a chance for an isolated shower. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week. Temperatures start the week slightly below normal, but should trend towards normal by Wednesday. Humidity levels will also remain low Monday and Tuesday before starting to trend up mid week. A cold front may press down on the area late in the week, but overall limited chances for precip till late week. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure shifts offshore Saturday. A wave of low pressure along a warm front approaches from the south Saturday night. Mainly VFR conditions through Saturday, although there is potential for some MVFR with localized patchy fog outside of NYC terminals early Saturday morning. Only have KSWF mentioned in TAFs for the MVFR visibility fog early Saturday (07-11Z). Late Saturday night into Sunday morning moderate to heavy showers are expected to move through the terminals, with a chance of thunderstorms. This will likely bring widespread MVFR cigs and vsby, with potential for periods of IFR. Winds are going to around 5 kt or less the rest of tonight out of the N or light and VRB. Winds become more easterly early Saturday and then mostly southeast Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds near 10 kts expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with some gusts around 15 kt for NYC terminals Saturday night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional wind gusts 15-20 kt possible Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday night: Becoming MVFR to IFR late in heavy showers and a chance for thunderstorms. Sunday: Mainly MVFR to IFR with showers, heavy at times, mainly early in the day. Localized LIFR possible. Slight chance of thunderstorms early. Improving and drying conditions late in the day into Sunday night with a return to mainly VFR. Monday: VFR. Northerly wind gusts 15-20 kt day into early evening. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Relatively weak pressure gradient will lead to conditions below SCA levels through the middle of next week. Rip Currents... Have increased the risk for NYC and Nassau beaches today to moderate as a S/SE flow could strengthen to just under 15 kt. This wind combined with an increasing S wind wave will likely cause more moderate rip activity by this afternoon. With less wind and a weaker swell for Suffolk beaches, have left at low risk today. For Sunday, a moderate risk remains for all beaches given around a 10 kt S flow with a 3ft 5s swell aimed perpendicular to the coast. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for CTZ007>012. NY...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for NYZ078>081-177-179. Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for NYZ071>075-176-178. NJ...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...JT MARINE...DS