Tuxedo Ridge Snow Report

538 FXUS61 KOKX 200626 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 226 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made with this forecast. && .KEY MESSAGE... 1) Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe with potential impacts. Flash flooding is somewhat less of a concern, but primarily minor impacts are anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A primary low pressure center tracks east through SE Canada Tuesday into Wednesday. A weak secondary low along a warm front shifts through the forecast area during the day on Tuesday with a trailing cold front moving through during Wednesday. Showers become likely late Tuesday morning into afternoon and remain likely during Tuesday night. Chances drop off west to east during the day Wednesday. Severe weather will be possible with sufficient wind and speed shear and at least modest CAPE. Still some uncertainty regarding how widespread severe thunderstorms could be due to timing of the warm front passage and how much clearing of the sky occurs with destabilization in the afternoon after the front moves through. SPC has eastern LI and SE CT under a marginal risk for severe weather Tuesday into Tuesday night with a slight risk elsewhere. Most likely impact as usual would be damaging wind gusts, but due to the veering wind profile, large hail cannot be ruled out for most of the area, and a low chance of a tornado exists in the vicinity of the advancing warm front. As for Wednesday, both CAPE and shear should be lower for the most part, but strong wind gusts could still be possible. PWATs will be around 2 inches and rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible, but mitigating factors for flash flooding will be the speed of the flow aloft (quicker moving cells), and to a lesser degree, the way the flow aloft aligns with the surface fronts (working against training and back building of cells). Any flooding impacts are more likely limited to minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding. With that said, WPC continues with a slight risk of flash flooding for the entire area, so trends still need to be monitored. If there are impacts, chances are that they would occur somewhere in the late morning through evening hours of Tuesday. Current rainfall forecast Tuesday through Wednesday has most of the area at 1 to 2 inches, but locally 2 1/2 to 3 inches are possible. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over the terminals will push offshore today. VFR. Light and variable this morning. Wind then shifts to the S this afternoon around or under 10kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday night: VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms. Thursday and Friday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... SCA conditions are expected on Tuesday, primarily on the ocean waters, as southerly winds increase and help build seas up to around 5 ft along with gusts to 25-30kt. Seas remain elevated on the ocean through at least Wednesday night with SCA conditions remaining likely. After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided to go with a SCA on the ocean for Tuesday and Tuesday night. South Shore Bays and eastern LI Sound may need to be added to the SCA, but not enough confidence at this time to do so. Sub-SCA conds on all of the ocean zones might not occur until some point on Thursday as seas continue to subside. Rip Currents: The rip current risk for the ocean beaches is low today. A moderate risk for all beaches is expected on Tuesday, and in some spots, could climb to a high risk late in the day. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JC