Tuxedo Ridge Snow Report

225 FXUS61 KOKX 300757 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 357 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Turning unsettled this afternoon through Thursday of next week. There is the potential for impacts, but confidence of impacts remains low this far out in time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid and upper level ridge sets up to the west-southwest late Sunday and into Monday. A cold front approaches from the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes along the northern periphery of the ridge tonight. Additionally, a surface trough sets up over the coastal areas of the Northeast today ahead of the cold front. As the ridge works east Sunday night through Wednesday of next week, there remains good agreement with the mid level mass fields. Our area will remain on the northern periphery of upper level ridging. Our position on the edge of this ridge will put the area in a good position to be impacted by several shortwaves that are expected to slide along the northern portion of the ridge. For this afternoon, CAMs are keying in on a line of showers and thunderstorms. CAMs bring this line on the doorstep of Orange County starting sometime between 2 pm to as late as 6 pm this afternoon and pushing south of Long Island from 11 pm to as late as 2 am tonight. There is the potential for some heavy rainfall with this line, leading to an instance or 2 of flash flooding. Looking at 1"/hr thresholds, the RRFS shows an isolated spot of over an inch an hour this evening, but of course, exactly where that happens is uncertain. PWATs during this time frame look to range form 1.75" to 2.25". Tall, skinny CAPE lends to warm rain processes. So, moisture is there. The pre-frontal trough will provide some decent lift. However, instability is the limiting factor, with 200-700 J/kg among the models. Therefore, as previously mentioned, isolated flash flooding is possible. WPC continues the marginal for excessive rainfall for today. With the high wet bulb zero and tall skinny CAPE and low LCL, severe threat is low today. Monday will be a bit of respite until late in the day as high pressure builds in from the north, but a warm front approaches from the southwest, allowing for POPs to increase once again. As a surface low pressure system develops ahead of the aforementioned shortwaves, the warm front is expected to progress east and likely just to the north or on the northern edge of the CWA into Tuesday and Wednesday, which has often been the case this warm season thus far. The area will be more unstable immediately south of the warm/stationary boundary, but our area should remain close enough to boundary to allow a good amount of synoptic scale/mid level forcing. This suggests a period of unsettled weather with the potential for some periods of convectively induced rainfall. SPC has placed the entire area in a marginal threat for severe storms for this time period, with slight just to our west. The primary threats are damaging winds and hail, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, though as of now, better dynamics for all of this is to the west. While there remains forecast uncertainty this far out, it appears the region will have the potential for convectively induced heavy rain and embedded thunderstorm activity. WPC currently has the area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Monday through Thursday morning, and SPC persists in placing the area in a 15 percent chance of severe weather on Day 5 (Wednesday) which is rare to see this far out in time. So the middle of next week will bear watching as PWATs are progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch neighborhood by Tuesday into Thursday. The associated cold front approaches Wednesday night and the cold front moves through on Thursday, continuing the chances for unsettled weather through at least this time frame. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure shifts offshore into this morning. A frontal system then moves through later today into tonight. Mainly VFR. Chances for MVFR cigs and vsbys Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening with potential for showers and thunderstorms. PROB30 has been added for TSRA late afternoon/evening today. MVFR chances increase into Sunday night, but a lot of uncertainty on whether showers will linger late into the night or not. Winds tonight will generally be VRB or light out of the SW. S/SW winds increase to 10-15 kt Sunday afternoon with gusts up to around 20 kt. There is a chance gusts may be more occasional. Winds diminish early tonight as directions turn NW. Late into the night, winds become light and variable at some terminals. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... PROB30s for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. Gusts may end up being more occasional this afternoon. Uncertainty surrounding how quickly winds diminish tonight. Uncertainty on whether showers will linger late into the night or not. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers. Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers. Showers likely early. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub advisory conditions prevail through the forecast period. Waves do build to between 4 and 5 ft Wednesday into Thursday on the ocean, so perhaps occasional 5 ft seas are possible during this time frame. Rip Currents: There is a low risk of rip current development through the rest of today with light flow and SE swells around 2 ft. Increasing S-SW winds and building seas to 3 ft Sunday afternoon will increase the risk to moderate along local ocean beaches. The risk returns to low on Monday as the flow lightens and swells fall to around 2 ft once again. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...BR MARINE...JP