Tuxedo Ridge snow report

289 FXUS61 KOKX 290728 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 328 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the eastern Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters from Moriches Inlet to Montauk out 20 NM. A Special Weather Statement for patchy dense fog was issued for portions of southern CT and eastern Long Island. No changes were made to the Extreme Heat Watch. Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, north and west of NYC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Patchy dense fog this morning. 2) Dangerous heat is possible mid to late week, potentially into Saturday. 3) Potential for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Patchy dense fog is being observed across portions of southern CT and eastern Long Island. This is expected to last through the early morning hours before daytime heating helps to dissipate it. An SPS has been issued until 9 AM. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Heights start to rise aloft today as a strong upper level ridge begins to build in from the west. While some differences are still seen in the latest guidance in terms of amplification of this ridge, the general consensus of peaking between 592-594dam would be over the 90th percentile of observed 500mb heights for the OKX Sounding. At the surface, high pressure strengthens over the area through Tuesday and then shifts just offshore, basically remaining in control through the weekend. With this pattern in place, and a modified subtropical airmass, there is potential for a prolonged period of dangerous heat mid to late week. There have been no changes to the Extreme Heat Watch since it was issued on Sunday. A few things that still need to be ironed out, with one of the more important factors being dewpoints as is typical this far out. Given ambient temperatures in most inland areas are expected to already be near 100, forecast dewpoints will likely have more impact on heat headlines (Warning vs Advisory) for coastal areas like southeast CT and Long Island. Large spread in dewpoints are seen in the latest NBM with upwards of a 10-12 degree difference between the 10th and 90th and a 5-7 degree difference between the 25th and 75th. The LREF seems more reasonable with a lower spread, closer to 3 to 5 degree difference (between 25th and 75th percentile), with the spread being between the upper 60s and lower 70s. Did lower forecast dewpoints slightly each afternoon to reflect this uncertainty. Even with this, still seeing forecast Heat Index values between 105 and 110 for most. This set up will also limit overnight relief with lows potentially as high as the upper 70s to lower 80s for most. This could be a dangerous situation especially for sensitive groups. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Given our placement on the northern periphery of the upper level ridge, we are set up for potential convection/MCSs rounding the base of the ridge. While this is common in this pattern, there is usually a lot of uncertainty in timing, placement and strength of this activity. This is being seen currently with large spread in the latest guidance. However, guidance is currently hinting at activity Tuesday and Wednesday. Most notably the 00z 6/29 HRRR, FV3 and ARW showing a decaying MCS moving in from the northwest Tuesday afternoon. The SPC has kept the marginal severe risk northwest of our area. If any activity is approaching, it will likely be moving into an unfavorable environment with very little instability. Additional thunderstorm activity is possible on Wednesday, with the SPC expanding the marginal risk through the Lower Hudson Valley. There is a bit more uncertainty in the guidance for this time frame with difference in strength/existence of a shortwave moving through and its ability to weaken the ridge. This would be a high instability, weak shear situation with uncertainty in a trigger. This will have to be monitored by subsequent shifts. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure moves over and eventually to the south of the region during the TAF period. Dry conditions through the TAF period. Aside from some areas of fog/stratus, VFR conditions are expected. These areas of fog/stratus will be mainly north and east of NYC terminals for late at night into the early morning hours. Within the fog/stratus, mainly IFR to LIFR conditions can be expected with brief VLIFR possible as well. Winds are expected to remain at or under 10 kts through the TAF period. Variable wind direction into this morning will eventually become more southerly thereafter through the remainder of the TAF period. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR to LIFR possible this morning mainly in window of 08-12Z with fog/stratus. Some fluctuation between categories is quite possible into early this morning. Chance that KJFK fog and stratus this morning does not develop. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Late Tonight: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON. .Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON for early morning. Also, brief localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into night. .Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but brief localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into evening. .Thursday: VFR. .Friday: Mainly VFR, but chances for MVFR or lower with chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially towards the evening. Some SW- NW wind gusts 15-20 kt are possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the eastern Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters from Moriches Inlet to Montauk out 20 NM. The dense fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning. Mainly sub-Small Craft Advisory criteria expected through the weekend. There will just likely be a brief period Tuesday afternoon and then again Wednesday into Wednesday night when a S/SW flow will likely gust up to 25+ kt. During the Wednesday/Wednesday night period the ocean seas will also likely reach 5 to 6 ft. Rip Currents: No changes to the rip current forecast. Light winds and a 1-2 ft swell will lead to a low risk of rip activity today. A S/SW flow increases on Tuesday and will raise the risk to moderate with the developing wind wave. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 1: KEWR: 100/1963 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964 July 2: KEWR: 102/1966 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966 July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025 July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014 July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018 July 4: KEWR: 81/2002 KBDR: 80/2002 KNYC: 81/2002 KLGA: 82/1999 KJFK: 80/2002 KISP: 76/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 340-350. && $$ DISCUSSION...JT AVIATION...JM MARINE...JT