Tuxedo Ridge snow report

541 FXUS61 KOKX 160743 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 343 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like warmth builds this weekend into Wednesday. 2) An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the the area late Wednesday. More seasonable weather to follow behind the cold front for the end of the week. 2) Cold water safety concerns for this weekend with good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A nearly zonal flow aloft today will be followed by significant height rises along the eastern seaboard Sunday through Tuesday. By Monday night, 50h anomalies will be on the order of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. What this all means is much warmer weather this weekend, but the hottest days are forecast to be Tuesday and Wednesday. For these days, temperatures will be about 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Highs will get into the upper 80s to as high as 95 away from the immediate coast. The warmest readings will be north and west of NYC and interior souther CT. Gusty SW-S winds both of these days will bring in cooler maritime air in along the coast, especially across the south shore of LI. For this weekend, highs on Saturday will be in the 70s to lower 80s, then into the 80s, possibly 90 Sunday. Monday poses a bit of an anomaly during this period, as a backdoor cold front passing through the area Sunday night will lead to more of a marine influence with SE winds. Many locations will see highs fall off 5 to 10 degrees with the possible exception being locations well north and west of NYC. A passing shortwave trough and strengthening confluent flow across eastern Canada and into the Northeast Sunday night look to be just enough to get the front as far NE NJ and eastern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. The front quickly returns to the north as a warm front Monday night. The S/SW flow in the warm sector Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the hottest days as previously mentioned. Heat index values could approach 95 in spots away from the coast. NBM high temperatures were knocked down some based on a noted warm bias early in the warm season. Expect mainly dry conditions with an isolated shower and/or sprinkle tonight with the passage of shortwave trough. There could also be an isolated late day thunderstorm north and west of NYC Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A positively tilted upper trough builds in from the NW mid to late week sending a cold front across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The boundary looks to be active with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. More seasonable temperatures are forecast for the end of the week. NBM does maintain a slight chance of showers as there are some differences in the progression of the system. The 00Z GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS are slower with potential wave development along the front. .KEY MESSAGE 3... There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure departs to the NE as high pressure builds to the south. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light and variable flow will become light SW towards daybreak. SW winds increase through the morning, with S/SW gusts to 25 kt by early afternoon. Gusts to 30kt possible for JFK and KISP in the late afternoon/early evening. Winds gradually diminish after 00z. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... S/SW gusts 25 to 30 kt likely for Sat late aft/early eve push. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday night: VFR. S/SW winds subsiding to 5 to 10kt. Isolated shra potential Sat Night. Sunday: VFR. W/SW winds 10-15g20kt, giving way to late afternoon seabreeze for south coastal terminals. Monday: VFR. SE winds 10-15g20kt. Isolated tsra potential Monday Night. Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-20g25kt. Isolated tsra potential late Monday aft/eve, mainly west of Hudson terminals. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower in scattered SHRA/TSRA in the late afternoon/evening. S/SW winds 15-20g25-30kt. NW windshift in the evening. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A SCA will go into effect for the ocean, south shore bays, and NY Harbor this afternoon. A strengthening southerly flow today will bring a return to SCA conditions on the ocean this afternoon/early evening, as well as Lower NY Harbor and south shore bays of W LI. Occasional 25 kt are also a possibility this evening across the eastern bays and eastern sound, but this looks to be for a real short period. Winds will gradually subside the second half of Saturday night into Sunday. However, ocean seas could linger around 5 ft for much of Sunday with residual S swell. There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated Sunday night through Monday night as flow temporarily weakens under high pressure. SCA conditions likely redevelop on the ocean water Tue into Tue night with strengthening SW flow, potentially for all waters by Wednesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...BC MARINE...DW