Tuxedo Ridge Snow Report

597 FXUS61 KOKX 190808 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 408 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rainfall forecasts have lowered compared to previous forecast. Potential for flash flooding for Sunday into Sunday night has decreased compared to previously forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain with isolated thunder Sunday into Sunday night. Marginal flood threat. 2) Breezy and cool conditions likely mid to late next week, with periods of unsettled weather possible. Potential for minor to moderate coastal flood and shoreline impacts mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Frontal system with wave of low pressure for the close of this weekend will eventually settle to the south of the region into early next week. Potential for heavy rain Sunday into Sunday night with more marginal flood risk. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm as well late Sunday into Sunday evening. Models still present quite a variability of area of the rainfall, some more south of the region and some north of the region and some within the region. However, total run accumulated precipitation remains near or less than 2 inches for most locations. PWATs near 2 inches are shown by forecast models to be present for Sunday into Sunday night but with such limited thunderstorm potential and more easterly flow, this is looking more like a stratiform rainfall event and less convective heavy rain. Cooler boundary layer will make for a cooling trend in daytime temperatures this weekend into early next week with that easterly flow. The bulk of the rain looks to taper off by early Monday but chances of rain remains Tuesday into midweek with cold front remaining south of the region and high pressure well to the north of the region. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Continued potential for a period of unsettled weather Tuesday thru Friday between strong Canadian high pressure anchoring across SE Canada and northern New England, while a broad southern and mid Atlantic low pressure develops, followed by late week coastal/offshore low development. The lows in response to closed upper low currently over the PAC NW slowly drifting across the US to the Great Lakes and then east coast during the mid to late week. Good NWP and AI model agreement pushing the front south of the area on Monday. This will get the region on the drier and cooler side of the frontal boundary, with only a low chance of showers as high pressure builds from the north. Confidence in sensible weather forecast details from day to day thereafter remains below average for much of next week as there is quite a bit of spread on how far north and how quickly the front works back towards the area, which would determine how much rainfall the area sees. Regardless of rainfall, a persistent cool and breezy east to northeast flow regime (gusts 30-40 mph) looks possible for the mid to late week period. Canadian maritime flow along with potential for increased cloud cover and showers this should keep daytime temperatures below seasonal norms thru the week. One additional note, if persistent and long fetch E/NE gales materialize during the mid to late week period, ahead of the approaching full moon next weekend, this will bring potential for minor to moderate coastal flood and shoreline impacts during time of high tide. Low pressure likely develops offshore by mid to late week as the closed upper lows drifts to the coast, which could increase the potential for rainfall, particularly for eastern area. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains over the region today, moving east late. VFR. N to NE winds around 10 kt early this morning. Some occasional gust 15-20kt are possible, especially at the coastal terminals. Winds will then gradually veer toward the E/SE late this morning into the afternoon. Wind speeds diminish a bit late in the TAF period. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gust 15-20kt could be more frequent tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Tonight: Some light rain possible towards daybreak, especially north and west of NYC. Sunday: Rain expected, potentially heavy at times. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. MVFR or lower at times. Southeasterly wind gusts near 15-20 kt Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, especially at the coastal terminals. Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers. N-NE wind gusts near 20 kt. Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible at times. A chance of showers. NE wind gusts 20-25 kt Tuesday and to 20 to 30 kt Wednesday, highest at the coastal terminals. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft conditions for wind gusts remain forecast into this morning for the ocean zones. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain mainly below SCA thresholds on other non-ocean marine zones although an occasional gust to 25 kt is possible on NY Harbor this morning. High pressure will get within closer proximity this afternoon through tonight. Then high pressure departs to the east with a frontal system moving in. Within this time period, conditions are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. A better chance at prevailing and more widespread small craft conditions for all water develops by early Monday morning for all waters Tuesday thru late week. This could build wave heights on the ocean 12-15ft+ and 4-7ft+ on LI sound. Rip Currents: The rip current risk for this weekend will be moderate with more onshore flow developing this afternoon and remaining onshore for Sunday. Ocean swells near 3 to 4 ft with some onshore component. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM/NV AVIATION...BC MARINE...JM/NV