Campgaw Mountain Snow Report

206 FXUS61 KOKX 070721 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 321 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded and increased the risk of severe thunderstorms today, mainly for western areas. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and humid conditions persist through at least Saturday. Continued heat but likely with lower humidity Sunday and Monday, possibly lingering into early next week. 2. Potential for scattered afternoon/evening heavy downpours and thunderstorms through Saturday, presenting a threat for isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding and strong to severe thunderstorm winds, particularly for NYC and points N&W. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An anomalously strong subtropical ridge will gradually break down into the weekend as the westerlies once again drop back into the area. Deep SSW flow from Gulf/Sub-tropic origin will continue a very warm and more notably a very humid airmass across the region through at least Saturday. Daytime highs will run 3 to 7 degrees above normal, well below records, but the high humidity (mid to upper 70s Tds) will make it feel quite uncomfortable. Heat index values today will get solidly into heat advisory criteria. Max heat index values today in the upper 90s to 104 across much of the area, except mid 90s across the immediate southern and eastern coasts. With approaching shortwave on Saturday, perhaps more in the way of convective debris, and some subtle indication of Tds being slightly lower (lower to mid 70s). This appears to have heat indices slightly lower in the mid 90s to lower 100s for NYC, NJ metro, and LI, with lower to mid 90s interior. Enough confidence in another day of mid 90 heat indices to extend the heat advisory into NYC, NE NJ, and LI at this point. The heat advisory may need to be extended into Saturday for interior areas as well if confidence in higher heat indices persists. Better signal for lowering TDs (upper 60s/lower 70s) for Sunday into Monday in wake of a weak cold front. So although temps will likely remain very warm in the upper 80s/lower 90s, HI`s will likely fall back into the lower 90s to 95. Heat advisories may need to be extended for NE NJ and NYC Metro, but marginal at this point. Heat indices may perk back up into the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday ahead of next approaching series of northern stream shortwaves and cold front, before a general signal for a cool down to more seasonable temps for middle of next week. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The subtropical ridge breaks down today into Saturday, as a series of shortwaves approach and then cross the region around large central Canada closed low. These shortwave will provide better forcing for more widespread aft/eve convection today and possibly Saturday in a similar highly unstable, very moist, weak to marginal deep layer shear environment. Good signal on the CAMs for iso-sct convective initiation by early afternoon along coastal seabreeze, with perhaps a more organized line developing across central/eastern PA/NY working into the region late afternoon/evening. With low MBE vectors magnitudes and high PWATS, potential for 2+" rainfall rates and iso-sct flash flooding exists. In addition, despite generally weak shear over the area, high instability given the heat and humidity will provide for a potential for any piulse-like convection to produce localized downbursts. The threat for strong to damaging winds is slightly increased if convection is able to organize. As a result, SPC has expanded and increased the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley now in a slight risk for severe thunderstorm development and a marginal risk expanded about 1 county eastward through the CWA, generally through western CT and central LI. A similar threat is possible for Saturday aft/eve, although some uncertainty on exact timing of shortwave energy and cold front with peak diurnal instability. This will be refined the next 24 hours with high-res model trends. Threat for convection looks limited on Sunday in wake of weak cold frontal passage bringing in a drier and weakly unstable airmass. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A trof of low pres will remain nearly stationary across the region thru tngt. Areas of MVFR or lower this morning, especially across Long Island and southern CT terminals, then VFR for most of the day. Chances for tstms in the aftn and eve, mainly aft 20Z, then dissipating overnight. Prob30s remain in the TAFs for now until timing can be better resolved. MVFR or lower then possible, especially outlying terminals aft 6Z Sat. SW winds becoming light and/or variable overnight. A light W-NW flow develops after sunrise before gradually becoming SW around 10 kt late morning into the afternoon. Wind lessen again aft 00Z Sat, becoming VRB at times. Peak gusts in excess of 35kt possible in the strongest tstms this aftn and eve. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Adjustments possible to the timing of potential tstms this afternoon and evening. Timing could be 21Z or later, with the highest probability window 22-03Z attm. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late tonight: Showers and thunderstorms diminishing with patchy fog possible. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for showers thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible. Sunday: VFR. Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening N and W of NYC terminals. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A persistent SW flow of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up 20 kt on the ocean waters each late afternoon and evening through Sat. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible near entrance to NY Harbor with coastal jet formation each late afternoon/evening, which could have ocean seas building to 3-5 ft during these times. Rip Currents: Persistent SW flow and associated wind waves will lead to a moderate rip current risk today and Saturday. Potential for rip current risk to increase to high late afternoon and evening today with coastal jet development and increase in breaking waves to 3 to 4 ft, particularly for NYC and western LI beaches. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ007>012. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>071. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ072>075-078>081- 176>179. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MW AVIATION... MARINE...MW