Campgaw Mountain Snow Report

949 FXUS61 KOKX 060800 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 400 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Frost advisory in effect 11PM this evening until 9AM Wednesday for Orange NY, Putnam NY, and interior Southern CT. Small craft advisories for portions of the waters extended farther into this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Coldest night of the season thus far coming up for tonight. Frost, isolated freezing temperatures for late tonight into early Wednesday morning for parts of the region. 2) Temperatures rebound with moderation of airmass Wednesday into Thursday. Above normal temperatures forecast Thursday. 3) Mainly dry conditions through the upcoming weekend. Next chance of rain Sunday night into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Tonight, the high pressure center moves in. Weakening pressure gradient with gusts diminishing this afternoon and winds becoming calm tonight. Mostly clear sky conditions will help promote radiational cooling to an already cooler than normal airmass. Took the blend of MET and MAV MOS guidance for lows tonight with some manual adjustments as the NBM itself appeared to be way too warm. The areal size of forecast min temperatures below freezing is relatively small and isolated. With the temperatures nearly falling to the dewpoint along with the calm winds, frost is expected to form, especially across the interior parts of the region and to a smaller extent across parts of Eastern Suffolk County NY. More than half of the zones of Orange NY, Putnam NY, and interior Southern CT have areas of frost forecast for late tonight into early Wednesday and for these zones, there is a frost advisory in effect from 11PM this evening until 9AM Wednesday. Elsewhere and outside of the Pine Barrens of Long Island, the range of lows is more in the 36 to 45 degree range with NYC Metro more in the 45 to 50 degree range. .KEY MESSAGE 2... With the movement of high pressure to more out into the Atlantic Wednesday into Wednesday night, the winds and circulation pattern changes to bring more SW winds. This will advect in a warmer airmass. Forecast temperatures exhibit quite the rebound as a result. Wednesday`s highs back to near normal, mostly mid 60s to near 70 and lows Wednesday night mostly back into the 50s as the SW winds stay up in the boundary layer. The warm air advection continues Thursday with highs that day more into the 70s with mid to upper 70s across western parts of the region (NE NJ, NYC, Lower Hudson Valley) away from the relatively cooler marine air. In general thereafter, forecast temperatures do not deviate much from seasonal normals. Highs mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows at night stay in the 40s and 50s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Extended dry conditions are forecast through the rest of the work week and into much of the weekend. A cold front moves across Thursday night but does not have much moisture with it and this is expected move through dry. Sunday night into early next week is when there is the next chance of rain and this is from a low pressure system and associated moisture approaching from the south and west. Still a lot of uncertainty with this and probability for rain is between 20 and 40 percent. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains in control. VFR. NW winds through the TAF period. Gusts 16-20kt late morning into early afternoon. Winds diminish tonight and bcmg SW to light and variable late. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Frequent gusts of 16-20kt are expected from approx 15-18z, but they may still be occasional at any point before 15z as well as during the daylight hours after 18z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: VFR. Wednesday-Saturday: VFR. SW wind G20-25kt possible Thursday aftn. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... SCA extended farther into this morning where it is already in effect. Winds still expected to be on a downward trend today as high pressure gradually builds more into the region. SCAs for LI Sound east of New Haven/Port Jeff and west of CT River as well as Peconic/Gardiners Bays now in effect until 9AM. SCA for LI Sound east of CT River remains until 11AM. SCA for ocean west of Moriches Inlet now in effect until 9AM. SCA for ocean east of Moriches Inlet now in effect until 12PM. Thereafter, from this afternoon into this weekend, mainly below SCA conditions are expected. However, there is potential for some SCA level conditions Thursday into Thursday night with the cold front approaching for portions of the ocean. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>008. NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067-068. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331- 340-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ332. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JC MARINE...JM