Tappan Zee Ski Area snow report

201 FXUS61 KOKX 170740 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 340 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A bit cooler Wednesday due to faster cold front timing. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like warmth continues into Wednesday. 2) An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the the area Wednesday. More seasonable weather to follow behind the cold front for the end of the week. 3) Cold water safety concerns continue this weekend with good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A stretch unseasonably warm weather will begin today with somewhat of a brief interruption on Monday. Highs today will get into the 80s to around 90, warmest north and west of the NYC metro. The south shore beaches of LI will be the coolest, with temperatures struggling to get much higher than 70. This is due to a strengthening onshore flow (S-SW) with ocean temperatures in the 50s. Other, coastal locations will fair better with less of maritime influence. A shortwave trough passing to the north today and a confluent mid-level flow will allow a backdoor cold front to drop down across the New England coast and across the area late tonight into Monday morning. This will be a real shallow, cooler airmass behind the front. Much of the guidance, including the latest CAMs, do get the front across the Lower Hudson Valley and northern NJ, but not too much farther west. Areas well north and west should still approach 90, but in general, expecting highs to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Monday. Most of the climate sites are within 3 degrees of records. Significant height rises along the eastern seaboard during this time will allow for much warmer air to move in aloft. As the ridge axis shifts gradually east Monday night, the front will lift north of the area as a warm front with additional warming of the layer. 85H temps on Tuesday get to 18C or even a bit higher. There still will be a maritime influence at the coast with a gusty southerly flow. Winds do veer more to the SW on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This was originally going to be the hottest day. However, an approaching cold front has been trending faster with chances increasing for an afternoon cold frontal passage, Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will range from generally the 80s at the coast (minus the south shore beaches of LI), to the lower and mid 90s from NYC and points north and west. During this time, undercut NBM highs by 3 to 5 degrees. This is partly due to its early season warm bias and potential for an earlier cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Because of this records highs are looking unlikely for this timeframe. Record high mins are a better possibility for Tuesday and Wednesday. A few weak impulses moving around the upper ridge could result in sprinkles or a shower later tonight into Monday, and possibly a thunderstorm north and west Tuesday afternoon/evening. Low confidence. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A less amplified, positively tilted upper moves through the Great Lakes and northeast midweek sending a cold front across the area Wednesday. The front continues to trend faster with a possible cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon. The front should be active with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. The severe weather threat looks low at this time. More seasonable temperatures are forecast for the end of the week. There is a chance for rain next weekend as the frontal boundary returns to the north. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Cold water safety concerns today as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak upper level disturbance passes through the terminals tonight. VFR through the TAF period. Can not rule out a brief sprinkle or light shower overnight. Expect no restrictions to flight categories. S-SW winds near 5-10 kt. Winds then become more WSW 10-15kt Sunday with an occasional gust to 20kt in the afternoon. Winds diminish Sunday evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be occasional Sunday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: VFR. SE winds 10-15g20kt afternoon into early eve. Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with potential showers and thunderstorms. Showers likely afternoon into eve with a chance of thunderstorms. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening. Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A SCA remains in effect for the oceans through early this afternoon. Seas are a bit lower this morning and based on trends in the guidance, seas are likely to fall below 4 ft on the nearshore ocean zones by early this afternoon. Cold water safety concerns today as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated Sunday night through Monday night as flow temporarily weakens under high pressure. SCA conditions likely redevelop on the ocean water Tue into Tue night with strengthening SW flow, potentially for all waters by Wednesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...BC MARINE...DW