Tappan Zee Ski Area Snow Report

631 FXUS61 KOKX 270721 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 321 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There have been no significant changes to the forecast. The threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening has increased somewhat. A flood watch remains in effect until 11pm tonight for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC, Nassau County and Fairfield County. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms are likely today into early Friday, mainly for NYC and areas north and west. Isolated instances of flash flooding and scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also likely, particularly west of the Hudson River. 2) After another chance of thunderstorms on Friday, a dry and seasonable forecast for the weekend, with a warming trend early next week. 3) High risk for rip currents at the Atlantic facing beaches today. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The ingredients continue to come together for periods of heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon into early Friday. Latest 6.95um WV imagery shows an upper low rotating over Hudson Bay with multiple vort maxes surging through the Great Lakes and OH Valley around the base of a mid level open trough. The region remains on the eastern side of this trough, with deep southwest flow advecting in moisture from the southeast US. Under this southwesterly flow, PWATs will increase to about 1.75" under the southerly flow, which is high (near or above the 90th percentile for 8/27 per SPC sounding climo) but not as high as previous events this summer. Surface low pressure with a slowly moving frontal system accompanies this feature, and approaches the local area later this morning. A pre-frontal trough sets up along or northwest of the i-95 corridor this afternoon and looks to be the focus for convective activity. The 00Z CAMS continue to vary in convective coverage, but do now point to somewhat less activity this morning and focus more on rounds of showers and storms this afternoon. However, State College, PA WSR-88D is depicting some early development this morning over SE PA which will have to be watched over the next several hours as they head northeast. The convective mode looks somewhat disorganized, generally, making it difficult to pinpoint who might receive the heaviest rainfall this afternoon. Areawide amounts from the NBM and global model suite look to be in the range of 0.5"-1.0" through 12Z Friday; highest amounts across the LoHud and NE NJ. There continues to be a sharp gradient to the east, with perhaps some east of NYC not picking up much precipitation at all. The 00Z HREF and other 00Z CAM guidance has an PMM area of 10% of >3"/3 hrs during the event, suggesting that any flash flooding may be more isolated in nature. However, some CAM guidance is showing isolated amounts of 3-4", along and just NW of i-95, so the potential remains for those higher amounts somewhere in that vicinity. RFCFFG depicts northeast NJ and Rockland County as the most vulnerable spots for flash flooding based on antecedent conditions. Less than 1" in an hour, and 1.5" - 2" in three hours for those areas. CAMs do show higher probabilities for >1-2" an hour across NE NJ and the LoHud, adding confidence to the flash flooding potential there. So with all this, will maintain the existing flood watch both in space and time, and highlight the axis from NE NJ into the LoHud as having the highest likelihood for flash flooding impacts this afternoon. However, anyone in the watch area has the potential to experience heavy downpours and flooding as the convection works through. WPC has expanded their Slight Risk (2/4) of excessive rainfall a bit further east, which now aligns with the flood watch and includes NYC and parts of western Long Island. A Marginal Risk (1/4) continues for most of the rest of the area, except far eastern Long Island and SE CT. The threat for more widespread severe thunderstorms has increased somewhat by this afternoon with model soundings showing both decent instability (~1500-2500J/kg MUCAPE) and 0-6km shear in the 30-40kt range, so cannot rule out an isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. Wind gusts would be the main hazard associated with the strongest storms, with DCAPE progged to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range. An isolated tornado or two is also possible given favorable hodographs and increased low level directional shear. 00Z HREF maintains STP values between 1-2, and 2-5km updraft helicities maximized across the Lower Hudson Valley this afternoon. SPC maintains a Slight (2/5) Risk for Severe Weather across western portions of the area, becoming Marginal (1/5) for NYC, Nassau, and Fairfield. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold pool aloft with main cold frontal passage Friday may spark a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially across southern CT and and LoHud. Coverage looks isolated and mainly sub severe, at this point. Otherwise, mainly zonal flow behind the late week system turns into weak ridging by late Saturday into Sunday as heights aloft rise. Skies will clear with northerly flow on Saturday, and dry conditions lasting into Sunday. Winds turn southerly on Sunday as the sfc high moves offshore, and dewpoints climb a few degrees relative to Saturday. Otherwise, near to slightly below normal temperatures both days, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heights continue to build into early next week, with increasing temperatures. Heat indices may approach 90F for the urban corridor Monday and Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Winds increase today out of the S closer to 15-20 kt. This combined with a building swell of 3-4ft at 5s out of the S/SE will bring a high risk of rip currents. The risk through much of the day may end up being moderate for southeast Suffolk, but high is possible by the late afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A frontal system approaches from the west tonight and impacts the region on Thursday. VFR through much of the forecast, except MVFR or lower possible in showers and tstms Thursday afternoon and evening, especially for western airports. There is a chance for widespread MVFR or lower in fog and/or stratus Thu night at all airports, mainly after midnight, and better chances across eastern/outlying terminals. Generally S winds 10 kt or less tonight. Winds increase Thursday to around 10-15 kt with some gusts into the upper teens and lower 20 kt range. Winds decrease below 10 kt aft 00Z Fri and shift more toward the SW/SSW, with outlying terminals becoming light and variable. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Confidence in the exact timing and placement of any tstms on Thu is low, although the best chances are from 18-00Z. Some of the tstms could produce winds in excess of 50 kt, as well as hvy rain reducing visibility to below 1 SM. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night: MVFR or lower possible with winds diminishing to less than 10 kt. Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower at times w/SHRA and TSRA. Saturday-Sunday: VFR. Monday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower in any showers or thunderstorms, mainly across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub small craft conditions are expected through the week. Southerly flow increases late Wednesday night into Thursday, with ocean seas getting to around 4 ft and gusts approaching 20 kt. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail with seas and winds diminishing for the weekend with a light pressure gradient with high pressure building across for the weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate risk continues today with a weak swell component and around 10-15 kt S/SW winds. Winds increase on Thursday out of the S closer to 15-20 kt. This combined with a building swell of 3-4ft at 5s out of the S/SE will bring a high risk of rip currents. The risk through much of the day may end up being moderate for southeast Suffolk, but high is possible by the late afternoon/evening. The risk lowers back to moderate on Friday with a lingering 3ft 6s swell out of the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for CTZ005-009. NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for NYZ067>075-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DBR AVIATION...JP MARINE...DBR