Snowshoe Mountain Snow Report

319 FXUS61 KRLX 140656 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 256 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A slight risk (Level 2) for excessive rainfall has been introduced to parts of the Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians for later today into Thursday morning. In a similar fashion to previous forecast cycles, modified Thursday night low temperatures and wind gusts for Friday in the midst of a strong cold frontal passage. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) The arrival of a cold front by late this afternoon will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. Some of these storms could be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding due to heavy downpours. 2.) Active weather stretches into the second half of the week as the front loafs nearby and eventually retreating to the north, maintaining daily chances of showers and storms on Thursday. A secondary strong cold front crosses Friday, prompting gusty showers, followed by much colder air and lingering gusty winds this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Quiet weather will come to an end by later today in response to an encroaching cold front. Until then, another unseasonably warm day is on tap for this afternoon as the forecast area becomes planted in the warm sector of the advancing front and parent low pressure system. While most afternoon high temperatures will fall well short of daily records today, Elkins and Beckley will come close to matching or slightly exceeding their record highs of 82 degrees. Onset timing of showers and storms ahead of the cold front is slated to reach our far northwest zones as soon as midday, with intensification of convection progged in the afternoon as the front slowly sags southward into the forecast area. Hi-res model guidance hints at scattered activity pressing further down into the area through the course of the afternoon and this evening. Tapping into the warm and unstable environment planted ahead of the frontal passage, a few strong to potentially severe storms could transpire and impose damaging wind gusts. Timeframe of the strongest storm potential will be strongly aligned to daytime heating, with convective activity diminishing in intensity after sunset this evening. Additionally, locally heavy downpours attached to precipitation ahead and along the front will yield high water concerns. While severe concerns peter out this evening, moderate to heavy rain potential will prevail into the overnight hours. The orientation of the passing front will also be key to flooding concerns tonight, as repetitive rounds of rain moving from west to east along the boundary could fall over locations that will grow more susceptible to rising creeks and streams. The latest excessive rainfall outlook has upgraded portions of Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia into a slight risk (Level 2) for flash flooding concerns through Thursday morning as a result. KEY MESSAGE 2... The frontal boundary will continue to loiter overhead or just slightly south of the area on Thursday, with additional rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout the morning. Forecast trends retain the notion of the boundary retreating northward as a warm front by midday on Thursday, and once again encouraging onshore flow and slight warm air advection heading into Friday. Surface low pressure strengthening off the lee of the Rockies will then infiltrate the Ohio Valley for the end of the work week. A strong cold front attached to this feature is progged to push through the region on Friday, with a line of gusty showers barreling into the forecast area in the afternoon. Behind this front, a deepening H5 trough will invoke a tightening pressure gradient that will set up elevated surface gusts across the area for Friday evening. Gusts on the upwards of 25kts across the lowlands could be observed in the wake of the FROPA, and nearing wind advisory thresholds of 40kts along the higher ridges, especially early Saturday morning. A blast of arctic air infiltrates the Central Appalachians heading into this weekend, with a stark change in morning low temperatures from Friday to Saturday mornings. Sub-freezing temperatures arriving to the higher terrain early Saturday morning could also promote the first snowflakes of the season as precipitation wraps up behind the front. Global models aren`t too keen on accumulations with this small window of wintry weather, but a light dusting isn`t out of the question for the highest ridges of our mountain zones. High pressure settles into the area for this weekend with dry weather in tow. Strong radiational cooling nights will promote sub-freezing temperatures for the vast majority of the area Sunday morning before a moderating trend takes hold early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... River valley fog early this morning is anticipated to remain outside of our TAF sites. Generally quiet flight conditions will continue through the first half of today before a cold front arrives late in the afternoon into this evening. Ceilings will deteriorate quickly overnight into Thursday morning amid showers and thunderstorms attached to the frontal boundary. A few storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts in close vicinity to area terminals. Sub-VFR conditions will round out the valid TAF period. Calm winds early this morning will become light to breezy out of the southwest during the day Wednesday ahead of the front. Occasional breezes of 15-20 kts are possible during the afternoon in some areas. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief moment of IFR could be observed at CRW and EKN this morning. Timing of restrictions accompanying the cold front may vary late this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/14/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible with showers/storms on Thursday. Brief IFR conditions are also possible with a strong cold front Friday into Friday night. IFR river valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05