Snowshoe Mountain Snow Report

224 FXUS61 KRLX 190630 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 230 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made since the last forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A break extends into this evening until chances of shower or thunderstorm activity increase once again. 2) Active weather for the rest of the weekend and into the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure fleets toward the southwest although upper level ridging will still impact the region and create subsidence to cap us through most of today. An upper level short wave will ride along the periphery of the ridge and raise chances for shower or storm activity during this evening and into Sunday morning. With the lack of strong upper level steering storms that evolve may move slowly and cause issues of localized flash flooding although this would be isolated in nature. Much of the area has been dry for at least a few days and the ones that have not been dry have not received much in the way of heavy rainfall, therefore mainly only flood prone and low lying areas would be at the greatest risk for flash flooding. WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall along the Ohio River and west of there. The western half of West Virignia is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well. PWATs are up near 2 inches and DCAPE is sufficient to promote down bursting which would cause damaging wind gusts. This is supported by a marginal risk for severe storms by SPC across mainly the Tri-state area where sufficient instability will exist. With the lack of shear storms will likely not last too long and strong to severe ones will likely be very isolated. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another active day on Sunday as we will be in a marginal for severe threat across much of the area for the afternoon and evening. WPC has us under a marginal to slight for excessive rainfall as well which is supportive of anomalously high PWATs for this time of year. More isolated flooding is possible under weak steering flow and heavy downpours. The main threat from any strong to severe storms will be damaging wind. More activity is then forecast as a frontal boundary drapes across the region into midweek and promotes more chances of unsettled weather and strong to severe thunderstorm probability as the feature becomes quasi-stationary and meanders about the area slowly traveling to the south. An upper low pressure system then digs across the Great Lakes and influences our area for the latter half of the work week with more chances for activity under a very active weather pattern. Temperatures will maintain below seasonable with active weather around and the lack of high pressure to cause any compressional heating. By end of the work week, strong high pressure looks to build in according to medium range models to where the region will be blocked off from unsettled weather for at least the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fairly dense fog has developed across all sites except for HTS who has surface flow out of the northeast. The fog and/or low stratus should lift by 13/14Z and then VFR will prevail until overnight tonight when more valley fog is possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Impacts and extent of fog may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/19/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H L M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L M M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M L H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in dense fog Sunday morning, especially in the mountain valleys. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ