Snowshoe Mountain Snow Report

860 FXUS61 KRLX 040725 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 325 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains consistent with the prior cycle. 06Z Aviation Discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Traversing high pressure will limit daytime shower and storm chances to primarily in and near higher terrain today. 2) A more active weather pattern returns Wednesday onward with daily showers and storms amid warm and muggy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A quiet start to the day with surface high pressure sliding eastward just north of the area, currently centered near Erie, PA. This has allowed for mainly clear conditions overnight, with valley fog having already quickly developed across the southern coalfields and into the northern lowlands (southeast of the Ohio River). While do expect a bit more expansion of fog through dawn, weak dry advection via northeast flow should prevent fog from getting too widespread across our northern zones, and could even begin mixing it out in some areas. Patchy dense fog will however remain possible. High pressure quickly slides northeast of the area throughout today, with return flow and associated moisture advection bringing the chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms in and near the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours, as a cutoff upper disturbance across the southeast CONUS gradually shifts north towards the forecast area. An isolated shower could occur as far north as the Charleston metro. Given very weak steering flow, generally 5-10 kts, a highly isolated instance of flash flooding cannot entirely be ruled out across our southwest VA and far southern WV zones if thunderstorms were to develop given PWATs quickly returning to 1.5"+ by later today, and also considering the pockets of very heavy rain that occurred Sunday evening in some of these areas. Activity should steadily diminish near/after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Some river valley fog is expected tonight, and perhaps even a bit of drizzle across the eastern slopes of the mountains within low stratus courtesy of southeast upslope flow. After a refreshing morning with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s, high temperatures today will warm into the mid/upper 80s across the lowlands. KEY MESSAGE 2... The aforementioned cutoff upper disturbance will gradually be pulled northward across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday as a broad upper trough across the north-central CONUS gradually progesses eastward. This combined with continued return flow and increased warmth/moisture across the area via an Atlantic/Gulf feed will result in increasing shower and storm chances beginning Wednesday onward, with the best chance for rain being during the afternoon/evening hours with diurnal heating (PoPs generally 40-80%). The pattern remains active Thursday through the weekend courtesy of a fairly zonal/progressive upper air pattern with weak crossing waves that will result in continued daily shower and storm chances. The potential for organized severe weather during this timeframe continues to look on the lower side, as the stronger kinematics generally remaining north of the area. However, daily modest instability/forcing will support at least some strong storm potential, with progged soundings during the period generally favoring weak shear amid a very moist environment, which would trend towards a damaging wind threat via wet microbursts if stronger storms were to occur. In addition, PWATs in the 1.5-2.0" range amid continued general weak steering flow will result in a localized threat for flash flooding with diurnally driven storms. Temperatures are progged to be slightly above normal throughout the period, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, amid high humidity. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Valley fog has quickly developed across the southern coalfields over the past couple of hours, and is gradually developing further northward. While dry advection from the north will probably slow expansion of fog going forward, do expect most terminals to be impacted as the night goes on with MVFR or worse, HTS being the exception. Any fog should quickly lift / dissipate shortly after sunrise to 13Z. This gives way to a mainly dry and VFR day amid a FEW/SCT Cu field, with ISOLD showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder possible across SW VA and eastern/southern WV. Brief MVFR VSBY could occur at BKW with this, but confidence is too low for anything other than a VCSH mention at this point. Calm flow this morning will transition to light ENE to ESE during the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this morning, high thereafter. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of valley fog this morning and associated restrictions may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY could occur across the south (including at BKW) with ISOLD showers and a few storms today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/04/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L M L L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR restrictions are possible with daily showers and thunderstorms Wednesday onward, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR could also occur in river valley fog during the early morning hours this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GW AVIATION...GW