Snowshoe Mountain snow report

573 FXUS61 KRLX 130709 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 309 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Following valley fog this morning, prospects for isolated showers and thunderstorms remain intact across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon. The flash flooding and severe weather threats are very low today. Drier and hotter weather arrives for the middle of the week, with chances for showers and storms arriving by Friday and into the weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The potential for isolated showers and storms remains intact across the southern half of the forecast area today. 2) Drier and hotter weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday, with more storm chances arriving Friday and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the mid/upper-levels, a subtropical ridge, objectively analyzed at 600 dam per the 13/00Z UA charts, was centered over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough responsible for generating the showers and thunderstorms yesterday continues to become increasingly dilapidated on water-vapor imagery as it propagates southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge. This shortwave trough will continue to gradually move south of the CWA throughout the next 24 hours as a well-defined shear axis stemming from a northern-stream jetlet translates towards the region. The respective high-level convergence and related large-scale subsidence descending into the mid-levels, the latter of which was sampled well by the 13/00Z RAOB from WFO PBZ, will shunt the higher shower and thunderstorm chances south of the CWA today. However, isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon across the southern half of the CWA where high-level flow will remain backed towards the southwest ahead of the 250 mb axis of convergence. The net increase in large-scale subsidence advecting southward will act to keep more-vigorous storms from developing compared to what has been observed the past couple of days, with mainly brief downpours possible. The flash flooding and severe weather threats are very low today. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs peaking in the middle 80s across the lowlands and ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s in the mountains. Storm chances will wane altogether by dusk, with valley fog returning late tonight while the weather remains benign area-wide otherwise as the NVA aloft continues to advect southward over the entire region. KEY MESSAGE 2... The center of the subtropical ridge will have shifted eastward and over the Upper Midwest by Tuesday while also expanding with longitude. Drier and hotter conditions are forecast Tuesday through Thursday, with highs forecast to peak near 90 degrees across the lowlands Tuesday while remaining in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountains. Highs will continue to climb into the lower-middle 90s Wednesday into Thursday as geopotential heights rise to 594-596 dam in concert with the eastward expansion of the subtropical ridge as its apex becomes modulated by a substantial shortwave trough digging into the Canadian Maritimes. Full insolation will aid in the development of a well-mixed boundary-layer each day, but relative humidity will still be high enough to boost heat indices towards 100 degrees for a few locales along and northwest of the Ohio River, especially Wednesday afternoon. The subtropical ridge will begin to collapse by the end of the week as closed low embedded within the larger-scale troughing becomes vertically-stacked over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Discrepancies exist among the global NWP guidance on the position and timing of the respective shortwave troughs pivoting through the larger-scale waveguide, but predominately northwest flow in conjunction with at least moderate deep-layer shear may support the potential for organized storms (some severe) by the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR/LIFR conditions are expected from valley fog through sunrise at all terminals, with the exception of KBKW, where MVFR/IFR CIGs are forecast due to slightly elevated winds. BLO MINS will be possible at the terminals due to the extent of fog this early morning. Valley fog will lift shortly after sunrise, with VFR returning as early as 14Z. A cu field will bubble by the early afternoon hours, but remain VFR, with isolated -SHRA and/or -TSRA possible this afternoon and early evening. Confidence in spatiotemporal coverage is too low to warrant any mention in the TAFs with this cycle, and the best potential for -SHRA/-TSRA appears to be along and south of the I-64 corridor. Winds will prevail from the east otherwise and remain calm throughout the scope of the TAF period, although KBKW may observe some gusts near 10-15 kt later this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low-medium through sunrise, then high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceiling and visibility restrictions are likely to fluctuate overnight into Monday morning, with differences from the more generalized forecast arising, as the table below suggests. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/13/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L H H M M L M H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M L L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M L L L M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions remain possible in fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across the valley locations. Hotter temperatures are forecast Tuesday through Thursday, so be sure to check density altitude each afternoon. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sincavage AVIATION...Sincavage