Canaan Valley Resort snow report

043 FXUS61 KPBZ 060745 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little change to the forecast. Some uncertainty remains in timing, coverage, and severity of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms return today with a severe threat 2) Daily shower/thunderstorm chances return later next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Several rounds of convection area expected today. Initially, showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning as the remnants of a decaying nocturnal MCS cross into the region. This may impact storm chances for the afternoon/evening hours as convection forms ahead of and along a surface cold front dropping south across the region Saturday night. Latest CAMs continue to poorly model the ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes, largely killing off convection within several hours of model initialization. More extensive convection crossing our area this morning may hurt and help storm chances for the afternoon. Weak moisture return in southwesterly flow this morning has boosted area dewpoints only into the upper 50s. More widespread rain this morning would help improve moisture, but lingering cloud debris through the morning would also inhibit surface heating. A balance between the two -- enough moisture increase, but limited lingering cloud cover -- would yield the most favorable environment for afternoon/evening storms. How this plays out remains to be seen, but it become obvious by mid-morning. Assuming at least a short window for clearing late this morning and afternoon, which seems likely, most CAMs do favor atmosphere recovery by afternoon with the HREF prob for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE and 30 knots of deep layer shear at 70+%. This would support a favorable environment for severe weather. Though specific details remain murky, CAMs generally agree on more discrete cells developing mid-afternoon, becoming more of a broken line by this evening. Deep layer shear of 45-50 kts over western PA in the afternoon, as currently progged by the HRRR, would support supercells capable of severe wind, large hail, and possibly tornadoes. The threat will shift to primarily wind in the evening as convection becomes more linear and crosses from north to south. Any threat for severe weather should end by midnight as instability wanes and storms diminish. The SPC Convective Outlook remains largely unchanged with a slight (1/5) risk for most of the area and 30% (unhatched) severe wind probabilities for a large portion of the area. Hail probabilities remain at 10%, and tornado at 2%. WPC has also maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, primarily in the case that urban areas see repeated rounds of heavy rain from storms. KEY MESSAGE 2... Ridging is progged to build back in early next week among all ensemble guidance with some uncertainty in temperatures for Monday and Tuesday as the departing trough to the east exhibits some timing differences as does the orientation and strength of the building ridge. Lingering troughing could hold temperatures in the upper 70s while quicker ridging could point to 80s for the majority of the week. Either way, a return of drier and warmer weather is anticipated for at least the first half of next week. Ridging then may break down some and allow for some summertime-like afternoon showers and storms, though with surface high pressure in the vicinity, coverage shouldn`t be widespread or bring a notable severe weather risk. High temperatures will be highly dependent on coverage of convection. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Several rounds of convection are possible today. The first is associated with decaying nocturnal convection currently crossing the Great Lakes. Weakening remnants of this system may cross the local region in the several hours before/after sunrise, but this is still poorly modeled. Have continued to cover this with PROB30 -SHRA given uncertainty in how quickly these will diminish. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible early afternoon with additional decaying convection before more robust convection develops later this afternoon and evening along a cold front. Hi-res models generally show this as a more linear feature with possibly embedded supercells descending across the area from north to south, impacting PIT around 00z +/- 2 hrs. Again, due to lower confidence in timing and coverage, carried TEMPO TSRA for this threat. A few storms may be strong to severe, capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Thunderstorm chances will likely diminish with an advancing cold front from the north between 02Z to 06Z Sunday. Post-frontal cold advection and lingering low-level moisture will likely prompt IFR ceiling restrictions with patchy IFR fog early Sunday morning. Outlook... VFR return is expected Sunday afternoon with building high pressure. Daily convection and associated restriction chances begin Tuesday after dry weather on Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rackley/MLB AVIATION...Rackley