Timberline Ski Resort snow report

503 FXUS61 KPBZ 170533 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 133 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Potential for showers/storms later this morning from a decaying MCS have decreased, as much of the activity should remain south of the region. No other major changes were made to the rest of the forecast. The aviation discussion was also updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot temperatures could impact heat-sensitive populations early next week. 2) Severe storm potential exists for both Tuesday and Wednesday, although timing/placement of that potential remains uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strengthening upper ridge near the southeast CONUS coast will induce 500mb height rises over the Upper Ohio Valley through Monday. After a dissipating MCS perhaps brings showers or a thunderstorm south of the WV/PA border around sunrise, a weak warm front with some isentropic lift works north across our region today. Isolated to scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms may result, but overall moisture remains limited, with CAMs agreeing on fairly sparse coverage. Dry weather then continues through tonight and Monday in the warm sector. Of course, the main story early this week remains the warming trend that will bring the first round of summerlike weather of the season. The deterministic NBM continues to lean too warm on forecast highs through Tuesday due to overenthusiastic bias correction. Have maintained the practice of earlier shifts to reduce high temperatures by a few degrees today through Tuesday. Even so, temperatures into the upper 80s to around 90 are favored for most of the region on Monday, save for the higher terrain, where low to mid 80s are forecast. Larger urban areas and valleys could tick a degree or two higher. Tuesday may be similarly warm, but there is a better chance for increase cloud cover and precipitation that could cause temperatures to underperform. Heat risk continues to show mostly moderate heat risk across the area for Monday and Tuesday. The urban/valley areas mentioned above perhaps approach the major impact level on Tuesday due to cumulative effects, including a warm and humid Monday night. Be sure to monitor for signs of heat illness if you are particularly susceptible, and hydrate for extended periods outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... Most of the region will remain dry Monday with capping warm air in the mid-levels. However, localized convergence on the higher terrain of northern West Virginia could induce a storm or two that could in theory present a downburst wind risk in a low- shear, higher DCAPE environment, but this remains a low- probability outcome. The southeast CONUS ridge will begin to break down during the Tuesday-Wednesday period as a shortwave crossing the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes pushes higher heights east. As the deepest part of the warm sector gets shunted towards the Atlantic Coast Monday, increasing moisture ahead of a Great Lakes low/Mississippi Valley cold front could push thunderstorms into areas northwest of Pittsburgh Tuesday afternoon and evening, presenting a risk of severe weather mainly in the form of damaging downburst wind (due to relatively low shear expectations). Depending on the progression of the cold front, another severe risk may be present on Wednesday, particularly for areas east of Pittsburgh. Uncertainty remains on the timing of the ridge breakdown and the cold front, and so confidence in pinpointing areas of greatest severe risk remains tricky at this distance. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Higher than normal uncertainty exists in the near term with respect to existence/height of stratus as prior modeling oversold MVFR/IFR presence through TAF issuance time and satellite imagery indicates further erosion (rather than rebuilding) may be more likely through 12z. TAFs were trended toward persistence given the lack of notable signal to reintroduce MVFR/IFR cigs at most area terminals. The one exception is if a decaying MCV south of KMGW is able to generate new shower and low probability thunderstorm development between 09z-14z near that terminal; if so, then outflow and moisture boosts from that convection could be enough to spark a new stratus deck generally near and east of KPIT. The rest of the TAF period favors dry weather with initial bkn VFR cu scattering as height rises aloft create subsidence in the region. There remains a few models, notably global models, that suggest afternoon convection near the I-80 corridor but hi-res modeling suggests any diurnally driven storms that do form will be very isolated and have a low probability of terminal impact. Outlook... VFR is favored with dry conditions through at least Tuesday morning before an approaching shortwave and surface low increases precipitation chances (with lagging restriction impacts) Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Frazier