Timberline Ski Resort Snow Report

126 FXUS61 KPBZ 080658 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 258 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Isaias has become a hurricane and ensembles show more confidence in rainfall for Sunday and Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather continues into the weekend with a warming trend by Saturday 2) The remnant low of Isaias may provide a soaking rain Sunday into Sunday night, although widespread flood risks remain low && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather is expected to continue through Friday and Saturday as surface high pressure remains in control. Temperatures remain a a bit above climatology through Friday. Southerly flow and rising heights behind the departing high may push daytime highs some 10 degrees above climatology on Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper level pattern heading into the Sunday through Monday night time frame continues to support a broad upper ridge over the east with Hurricane Isaias coming ashore and tracking north into the Ohio Valley and the Lower Great Lakes. The trend in the ensembles, including the NBM as well as some deterministic models show a shift to the west of the track of the landfalling hurricane. Precip begins to move into the forecast area by late Saturday night. By 00Z Monday, the low center begins to track east but surface high pressure off the east coast slows the exit as bit. This factor will need to be monitored as additional residence time will mean more rainfall, and potential minor problems, especially with the leaves beginning to fall and clogging drains in the city. For now, the swath of moisture exits to the east. At this time, concerning the rainfall, the mean solution has about 1.20" to 1.40" for the event. A more amplified pattern could keep the tropical system in place a bit longer. Thus, a 90th percentile solution brings 2.00" to 2.50" to the forecast area in a 48 hour period. Most FFG guidance across the area is around 1.50" to 1.75" for 1 hour and up to 3.00" for 6 hour amounts. The NBM probs for exceeding 2.50" is around 10% So, still at this point, no major flooding is expected but certainly needs watched given the slowed track potential. The probs of exceeding 250 J/Kg of SB CAPE is still around 30% so severe is still not expected to be a concern. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will remain in control with strong southwest to westerly winds through the day. Winds could gust up to 20 knots at times through the day. Some cirrus is possible through the period along with some low level cumulus this afternoon. Overall, VFR conditions are expected. Outlook... Other than varying chances for morning river valley steam fog, VFR is favored through the weekend until the remnants of Isaias arrive in the latter half of the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger