Timberline Ski Resort Snow Report

561 FXUS61 KPBZ 080610 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 210 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The overall forecast remains largely on track. The main change was an increase for the potential for excessive rainfall on Monday, with severe chances also likely to peak on that day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A morning round of numerous to widespread showers and storms will provide mainly a continued heavy rain threat, while a late evening/overnight round will be more scattered but present a slightly higher wind gust potential. 2) After a break on Sunday, daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday and remain in the forecast through at least Thursday, with the continued presence of severe and flooding threats. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Although a relative lull in activity is in place as of this writing, additional showers and thunderstorms have formed in Ohio, in advance of a shortwave in the general Great Lakes/NE CONUS trough. This activity should spread eastward through the morning, impacting the Upper Ohio Valley especially between 07Z and 12Z. Severe threat with this activity should remain quite low with little low-level instability in place. However, the column will remain favorable for efficient rainfall production and high precipitation rates. Precipitable water values will remain in the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range in the ongoing southwest flow. Near- term model soundings show warm cloud depths of 10k-12k feet along with decent low-level saturation. Although individual cells will have some motion, some training is possible as mean flow may align with a WSW-oreinted low level jet, suggesting some training is possible. The 00Z HREF suggests some 1-2" 6-hour maximum rainfall totals are possible, which could be an issues if such totals hit the wrong areas, such as the locations near and east of Pittsburgh that received heavier rain on Friday, and those areas will be monitored closely. Still, the threat of flooding should remain too isolated and for too short a period for the issuance of a watch. Most of this activity should depart after 13Z or so with the initial shortwave. After a lull, another round of likely more scattered showers and storms is expected during the late afternoon through around midnight or so with another shortwave in the flow. With a drier overall column by that point and correspondingly more subdued PWAT of 1.2 to 1.5 inches, the heavy rain threat should be a little lower. Nevertheless, that drier air aloft will help tick up the threat of gusty to borderline severe winds, as 1500-2000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE and around 1000 J/kg of downdraft CAPE appear likely at least into the early to middle evening hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... The second round should end by 06Z tonight, and then a needed break still appears likely through Sunday and Sunday night. Model soundings continue to suggest a drier column and mid-level capping that would prevent convective development. Dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s, after today`s readings in the 70s, should lend a less sticky feel to the air. The overall trough remains in place through much of next week. Daily showers and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Monday through at least Thursday, as several shortwave ripples continue to ride through on the flow. Heavy rain potential will need continued scrutiny, as precipitable water values remain above-normal in a climatologic sense. WPC will likely place our region in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall on that day. Severe weather chances show an uptick as well, particularly earlier in the week according to the long-range machine-learning convective guidance. This makes sense, as this period shows the best juxtaposition of instability, moderate deep-layer shear, and decent low-level flow. Some uncertainty remains among the various ensemble members that will be better resolved in time. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As another shortwave brings a renewed push of support for lift, convective coverage is forecast to increase from west to east overnight and through the early morning, with activity already near ZZV. Although some wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH may be possible, the main impacts from the storms will be lightning strikes and periods of downpours, which could lead to IFR/LIFR visibilties for brief periods. Have used 2-hour TEMPO groups to illustrate the most-likely period of impact. Away from storms, it appears that VFR conditions will be mostly prevalent initially (HREF shows best fog potential only near DUJ), before MVFR ceilings take hold around sunrise. After precipitation largely departs by 13Z or so, lingering MVFR ceilings will slowly lift and achieve VFR by midday/early afternoon as daytime mixing commences. Southwest wind may gust to between 15 and 20 knots as well. Another, more scattered round of convection appears likely towards the end of the TAF period, which will be handled by PROB30 groups for now. Although a direct hit at any one airport will be a little less likely, wind gusts have the potential to be stronger for this round. Outlook... Shortwave riding should provide a needed break from convective activity on Sunday. Daily showers and thunderstorm chances then return for Monday through Wednesday, with restrictions possible. Patchy fog and stratus remains possible each morning with stubborn low level moisture. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...CL