Timberline Ski Resort Snow Report

690 FXUS61 KPBZ 180637 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 237 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A chance of showers and thunderstorms will still linger today but south of I-70. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Some lingering showers and thunderstorms south of I-70 today. 2) Active weather returns starting Saturday into next week that could portend to increased flood risks. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Expect some morning fog across the area. Some areas could see some patchy dense fog. This should begin to clear up by 15Z. The Friday period will feature a mainly dry forecast across the area with the exception of the region south of I-70. The cold front has settled south of I-70 but still impacting the southern OH and northern WV counties. Expect the probabilities of rainfall to exceed an a half inch being around 10% to 30%. The afternoon convection south of I-70 looks to weaken and dissipate by the 21Z to 23Z time frame. Overall, a dry day expected with little to no impacts. KEY MESSAGE 2... Expect more rounds of showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday into early next week. This is due to the region generally sitting on the NE periphery of a lower Mississippi to Tennessee River Valley high while a series of shortwaves traverse the ridge top. Additionally, warm, moist advection favors a return of the humid airmass characterized by anomalously high PWAT values ranging from 1.4"-1.9", all of which is above the 90th percentile. Though finer details vary model-to-model and day-to-day (some discussed momentarily), the broader messaging of this pattern lends to likely periods featuring showers/thunderstorm that carry an increased risk for flash flooding and, pending other environmental aspects, severe weather. The Saturday period will feature the arrival of convection over the northwest portion of the forecast area. The timing seems to be more of a Saturday night threat. The threat for flash flooding seems to be in a Saturday night to Sunday night period. The ensembles have been trending and/or bia to lower rainfall totals through this period and is very noticeable. This is true even for the NBM. Thus, will expect an MCS to track across the area in the late Saturday night period. Current ensemble mean rainfall total values over this 24-hour period range from 0.75"-1.5" with the axis favoring the I-80 corridor. Pending the potential north/south re- positioning of this axis, high-end scenarios could see totals in the heaviest axis in the 2-3" range; any additional convective element boost theoretically could push that higher. Entering this period, the region already is fairly saturated with lowered flash flood guidance; any rain that develops AFTER this initial window likely does with almost fully saturated grounds that sees a high percentage of rainfall translate to run-off (increasing flash flood likelihood). If confidence in these outcomes increase, Flood Watches may be issued in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect fog and low stratus to develop tonight and linger through dawn. Most locations will see visibility drop below a mile. The combination of light winds and a warm and humid environment will allow the fog to linger through at least 14Z. Expect a gradual lifting of fog/stratus following sunrise tomorrow morning. After some lingering IFR to MVFR cigs, VFR conditions are likely Friday after 18Z, under high pressure with northerly wind between 5-10 knots. Outlook... Restrictions are likely to return Saturday night into Sunday morning with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms associated with an approaching disturbance. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger