Skyline Ski Area Snow Report

568 FXUS61 KRNK 080723 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 323 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances continuing through next week. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Daily showers and thunderstorms likely to continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Daily showers and thunderstorms likely to continue into next week. Though repetitive, the pattern of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is likely to continue into next week. Southwesterly winds from the Bermuda High will keep conditions warm and moist and orographic based storms will return today. The flash flood risk will also be extending its stay as PWAT values of 1.75-2.00" will support high rainfall rates into today and possibly tomorrow (Sunday). The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall along and west of the Blue Ridge for today as well as a Marginal Risk for the North Carolina counties and Grayson Highland area. MRMS has Soil Moisture at around 60-80% for locations that have had previous flash flooding, particularly in Carroll, Patrick, Surry, and Western Greenbrier Counties. The threshold for flooding for these areas is very low so these will be areas of concern for today`s thunderstorm activity. A large cutoff low over Canada will have several troughs and waves move around it, with some pieces intersecting our forecast area next week. This weather pattern will also assist in guaranteeing diurnal thunderstorm activity. There are few features that are worth of note. One is a signal of severe weather for the middle of next week. While model guidance struggles on the timing, a decent shortwave and low level jet is projected to move across the area as a low level surface high pressure system over Bermuda is forecast to move eastward. While low and mid level winds will be more westerly/northwesterly, wind gusts may reach up to 45 mph against the mountains and shear may be introduced to provide storm organization. While CAPE will remain plentiful thanks to the previously supplied warm and moist air from the south, the lapse rates will need to increase if there is to be any confidence in severe weather development. This event is still several days away so this will be monitored in future forecasts. Another system of note is a small but potent shortwave that forms over the Ozarks this afternoon. Despite the temporal proximity to this event, model guidance has specific differences in its evolution. This disturbance looks to stall and attempt to break off from the main flow before weakening and sending some attenuated vorticity to the region by Sunday afternoon. The most likely impact from this system is a source of lift for storm development but it is worth noting due to the model discrepancies and the small risk of the wave completely detaching itself and having downstream effects on next week`s forecast. Finally, the large ridge over the southwestern CONUS will weaken and move southeastward over Texas towards the end of next week. Its position will transport shortwave ridge riders to our area and continue the daily precipitation chances going. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Early morning fog is likely at KROA, KLWB, and KBCB before sunrise. KLWB, unsurprisingly, may have the worst conditions with visibilities as low as one mile and cloud ceilings below 1000 feet. The fog will evaporate after sunrise. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is possible today. These storms will be scattered in nature, but may affect KROA, KBLF, KLWB, and KBCB the most. Model guidance suggests thunderstorm activity will wane by sunset unlike previous days where storms continued well after midnight. Otherwise, winds will be mostly from the southwest between 5-10 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The daily thunderstorm activity will likely continue into next week as well as overnight patchy fog. All terminals are at risk of sub- VFR conditions thanks to the storms but it will still be hit or miss on which airport receives rain and lower visibilities/ceilings as a result. Low level winds become more northwesterly by the middle of next week and with some jet streaks possibly swinging by and sending strong wind gusts and wind shear. && .HYDROLOGY... There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for areas near the Blue Ridge and westward today, then for parts of the western mountains of NC and VA Sunday. Repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms amidst a moist air mass will persist the remainder of this week. Not a lot of confidence in the details for any particular location, but mountains will encourage training storms. PWAT values are expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00" range. High ambient moisture will produce very efficient rainfall rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban areas and along mountainous terrain will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding, especially if storms repeatedly train over the same locations. Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits across the Piedmont. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...CG HYDROLOGY...SH/CG