Uplands Ski Centre Snow Report

684 FXUS61 KBUF 200547 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 147 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered precipitation chances and amounts across far western New York through today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Some showers from the Southern Tier northeastward into the North Country this morning, then turning drier through the rest of the day. 2) Below normal temperatures will continue through most of the upcoming week, with a few showers possible at times midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Some showers from the Southern Tier northeastward into the North Country this morning, then turning drier through the rest of the day. As of this writing a wave of low pressure is found over the central Mississippi Valley...with an inverted trough extending northeastward from this feature into western New York. Regional radars show that the vast majority of any showers attendant to the trough continue to pass by largely to our south...with just some rather spotty activity currently noted across the western Southern Tier. As we push through the early portions of this morning...the trough axis will temporarily extend further northeastward across New York State...with an embedded weak wave of low pressure forming over NE Ohio/NW Pennsylvania in response to shortwave energy pushing eastward across the Ohio Valley. At the same time...a modest low level jet will also develop from north-central PA into north-central New York. As all this occurs...increasing isentropic upglide/ moisture along the advancing trough will combine with low level convergence along the nose of the low level jet...leading to a brief period of somewhat more numerous showers from the interior Southern Tier northeastward across portions of the Finger Lakes and North Country. These should be most numerous across the North Country where lift from the LLJ will be maximized...while across the Niagara Frontier shower coverage should remain much more widely scattered due to that area lying to the northwest of the better forcing. After about mid-morning the low level jet will slide off to our east...while the axis of the inverted surface trough will get suppressed southeastward in response to strong Canadian high pressure building southeastward across Ontario Province and the Upper Great Lakes. This will result in any showers commensurately winding down from northwest to southeast...allowing for a return to mainly dry weather by late afternoon in most areas. This being said...a general northerly/northeasterly upslope flow will keep mostly cloudy skies intact across the area for the bulk of the day...with just some limited sun possible across northern sections late. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below normal temperatures will continue through most of the upcoming week, with a few showers possible at times midweek. Through the work week the bulk of broad upper level troughing over eastern Canada will slowly drift eastward and out to sea...with the southwestern extent of this trough eventually breaking off and evolving into a modest closed upper low over the Ohio Valley/mid- Atlantic states during the mid-late week period. Meanwhile at the surface...a large area of cool Canadian high pressure will slowly drift from Ontario to Quebec Provinces. The prevailing northeasterly to easterly flow around the high will keep a cooler than normal airmass intact across our region through the majority of the upcoming week...with the coolest days coming Monday-Tuesday when highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s in most areas... with only gradual day-to-day warming then following for the rest of the week. With respect to precipitation chances...uncertainty persists with respect to how far back north inverted troughing extends during the midweek period in response to the developing closed upper low. Depending upon just how far north this ultimately gets...there could be a few spotty showers across portions of western New York Tuesday through Thursday...for which current blended guidance of slight chance to chance PoPs looks reasonable. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... W`erly to WNW`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect Western and Central NY through 00Z/Mon. Scattered to widespread low/mid/upper-level cloud cover will accompany these disturbances. At the surface, an inverted trough affects our region for the time being and this trough`s axis should move SE`ward through our region between ~12Z/Sun and ~20Z/Sun. Behind the trough axis, a high pressure ridge builds from northern ON and vicinity through 00Z/Mon. Our regional surface winds should trend E`erly to SE`erly around 5 knots ahead of the trough axis. The trough axis` passage will cause winds to back to NE`erly to N`erly and strengthen to around 5 to 15 knots. Scattered to widespread rain showers, steady at times, are expected to overspread our region generally from west to east and gradually through 08Z/Sun. Simultaneously, ceilings will continue to develop and lower from the VFR range to IFR range and generally from west to east. Periodic MVFR to IFR visibility is expected with showers, especially in steadier rain, and periodic LIFR ceilings are expected over the higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes from around daybreak through afternoon on Sunday. Given the expected evolution of the inverted surface trough and subsequent surface ridge, scattered to widespread showers should end in a northwest to southeast fashion across our region between ~14Z/Sun and ~21Z/Sun. MVFR to IFR ceilings should improve to VFR ceilings in a northwest to southeast manner after ~20Z/Sun and by 00Z/Mon, lingering MVFR to IFR ceilings over Western and Central NY should be located roughly along and especially southeast of a KGTB to KERI line. Outlook... Sunday night and Monday...Dry weather and mainly VFR, but MVFR to IFR ceilings expected, especially inland from the eastern Great Lakes, Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday night through Thursday...Periodic showers with MVFR or worse possible. && .MARINE... Modest easterly flow in place early this morning will turn more northeasterly and freshen a bit today. While this will produce increasingly choppy conditions along the south shores of the Lower Great Lakes...conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria. The northeasterly flow will then increase further between later tonight and early Monday...with a fairly brisk flow then persisting through Tuesday while gradually veering more easterly over time. This will likely lead to an extended period of SCA-worthy conditions across portions of the Lower Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJR AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...JJR