Forecast discussion
What forecasters are seeing
Plain-English forecast narrative from the local NWS office. Issued by NWS PHI.
205
FXUS61 KPHI 290803
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
403 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
New Key Message 1.
The valid start time of the Extreme Heat Watch for far southern
New Jersey and the barrier island was pushed back to now begin
at noon Thursday.
Additional temperature record information added to the Climate
section.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A warming trend in temperatures expected through Tuesday. A
few thunderstorms possible on Tuesday.
2. Dangerous heat and humidity will build over the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic beginning Wednesday through Saturday. All time
record high temperatures could be challenged Thursday and Friday.
3. There is the potential for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms starting on Friday and lasting into the holiday
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend in temperatures expected
through Tuesday. A few thunderstorms possible on Tuesday.
A strengthening ridge of high pressure to our west will result
in a warming trend in temperatures today through Tuesday. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 80s today, and closer to 90 degrees
for some areas by Tuesday. With a lack of low level moisture
return locally until late Tuesday, dewpoints are anticipated to
mix out each afternoon. So although it`ll be quite warm,
humidity won`t be too oppressive until the heat ramps up on
Wednesday. Lows in the 60s.
By Tuesday afternoon and evening, we could get some MCSs coming
into our region out of the Great Lakes region amid the
northwesterly flow aloft. Greatest chances of any thunderstorms
will be focused mainly north of the Philly metro. Details on
this activity remains to be seen, but will be something to
monitor. It is possible convection remains mainly north of our
area. Damaging winds would be the main threat with any
thunderstorms.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat and humidity will build over the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic beginning Wednesday through
Saturday. All time record high temperatures could be challenged
Thursday and Friday.
Strong mid-level ridging will develop over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley early this week. Ridging will then build eastward
into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by Wednesday and persist
through into the holiday weekend. A west to southwest flow on
Wednesday will shift more west to northwest by Friday. The ridge
will finally start to break and retreat some starting Saturday
into Sunday.
High temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 90s on
Wednesday, and then from 100 to 105 degrees on Thursday and
Friday. With a south to southwest flow on Wednesday, dewpoints
are less likely to mix out significantly in the afternoon.
Resulting heat indices are forecast to range mainly from around
100-105 degrees. By Thursday and Friday, the shift to a more
west or northwest flow will allow for better mixing out of
dewpoints during the afternoon, and also a component of
downsloping (adiabatic warming) from the Appalachians. This
will support temperatures climbing above 100 degrees as
dewpoints mix out into the mid 60s during the afternoon hours.
Resulting forecast heat indices are mostly in the 105-110 degree
range. This is indeed the type of synoptic pattern that could
challenge all time record high temperatures in our region. See
the Climate section below for more information on record
temperatures.
Temperatures will abate somewhat on Saturday as the ridge begins
to break and retreat. However, high temperatures will still be
in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. The prevailing flow
direction will dictate how much mixing out of dewpoints occur
on Saturday. Currently, we have upper 60s to near 70 degree
dewpoints, which results in 100-105 degree heat indices, locally
as much as 110 degree for areas that don`t mix out. Highs will
remain in the low to mid 90s Sunday and Monday as well, with
heat indices still in the mid 90s to low 100s. So we certainly
could see heat related impacts continuing beyond Saturday
despite a slight improvement in temperatures.
The Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect for New Jersey,
southeast Pennsylvania, the Delaware Valley including
Philadelphia and northern Delaware, and the southern Poconos.
Future shifts will likely expand the Watch to include the rest
of Delmarva. The valid start time of the Extreme Heat Watch for
far southern New Jersey and the barrier island was pushed back
to now begin at noon Thursday, as we have been consistently
forecasting heat indices below advisory criteria on Wednesday
for those zones.
The mid-level ridge will break and retrograde back towards the
south and west on Saturday, and a mid-level trough will try to
slide down into the Northeast. This pattern change will begin to
favor slightly cooler temperatures and a break in the extreme
heat by Sunday or Monday, as well as the potential for showers
and thunderstorms next weekend (see Key Message 3 below).
KEY MESSAGE 3...There is the potential for afternoon and
evening thunderstorms starting on Friday and lasting into the
holiday weekend.
The mid-level ridge looks to break down and retrograde back to
the south and west starting on Friday, and this will allow mid-
level troughiness to develop over the Northeast. With several
shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge and into the local
area, this may touch off afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms starting on Friday, but the better chances for
convection arrive on Saturday and Sunday. Currently, PoPs are
around 20-30% on Friday and 30-50% on Saturday and Sunday.
While details of this activity won`t become clear until later
this week, it is important to point out that any holiday
weekend festivities could be impacted by thunderstorms (in
addition to the extreme heat). The environmental setup would be
favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms, if any storms do
develop. We`ll continue to monitor this potential.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 12Z...Restrictions are anticipated to develop for many
terminals in fog/mist and low clouds moving in off the ocean.
Winds mainly calm. Low confidence forecast in the details of
restrictions.
Rest of Today...Any restrictions clearing early (by 13Z), then
VFR. ENE winds increasing to near 5-10 kts from I-95 and
southeast, then shifting SE to S as sea, bay, and river breezes
develop. Winds light and variable for RDG/ABE, eventually
settling out of the south near 5 kts. High confidence.
Tonight...Low chance of restrictions in fog overnight.
Otherwise, VFR. Winds mainly calm. Low confidence in fog.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...VFR. Low chance (20%) of a thunderstorm
Tuesday and Friday, otherwise no significant weather.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine hazards are forecast through tonight. Some patchy fog
possible through mid morning. Northeast to east winds 5-10 kts.
Seas 1-3 feet.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Overall, no marine hazards are forecast.
Cannot rule out a brief period of southerly 25+ kt gusts or
seas approaching 5 feet late Tuesday and/or Wednesday afternoon,
mainly north of Atlantic City.
Rip Currents...
For today, breaking waves in the surf zone will be around 2
feet or less with east to northeast winds around 10 mph and a
southeast swell. As a result, there is a LOW risk of dangerous
rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
For Tuesday, conditions remain similar, with east to southeast
winds around 10-15 mph and a southeast swell. Breaking waves in
the surf zone will be around 1-2 feet as a result, and
therefore, the LOW risk of dangerous rip currents for both the
Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches looks to continue.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record breaking heat is forecast from Wednesday through
Saturday. Temperature records for our climate sites are listed
below:
All Time Record High Temperatures
Site Record / Date
Allentown (ABE) 105 / July 3, 1966
AC Airport (ACY) 106 / June 28, 1969
AC Marina (55N) 104 / August 7, 1918
Georgetown (GED) 104 / July 22 & 23, 2011
Mount Pocono (MPO) 103 / July 3, 1911
Philadelphia (PHL) 106 / August 7, 1918
Reading (RDG) 106 / July 22, 2011
Trenton (TTN) 106 / July 9, 1936 & July 22, 2011
Wilmington (ILG) 107 / August 7, 1918
All Time Record Warmest Low Temperatures
Site Record / Date
Allentown (ABE) 79 / July 15, 1995
AC Airport (ACY) 84 / July 23, 2011
AC Marina (55N) 82 / July 21, 2019
Georgetown (GED) 84 / July 23, 2011
Mount Pocono (MPO) 76 / July 12, 1952
Philadelphia (PHL) 83 / July 24, 2010 & July 23, 2011
Reading (RDG) 81 / August 7, 1918
Trenton (TTN) 84 / August 11, 1895
Wilmington (ILG) 84 / August 7, 1918
Record Number of Consecutive 100+ Degree Days
Site Record / Date
Allentown (ABE) 3 days / July 9-11, 1936 & July 2-4, 1966
AC Airport (ACY) 3 days / July 2-4, 1966 & July 22-24, 2011
AC Marina (55N) 1 day / Occurred multiple times
Georgetown (GED) 2 days / Most recent June 24-25, 2025
Mount Pocono (MPO) 1 day / July 3, 1911
Philadelphia (PHL) 3 days / July 2-4, 1966 & July 8-10, 1993
Reading (RDG) 3 days / Most recent July 21-23, 2011
Trenton (TTN) 3 days / Most recent July 21-23, 2011
Wilmington (ILG) 3 days / Most recent July 9-11, 1936
Record High Temperatures
July 1
Site Record / Year
Allentown (ABE) 98 / 2018
AC Airport (ACY) 99 / 1968
AC Marina (55N) 98 / 1968
Georgetown (GED) 99 / 2012
Mount Pocono (MPO) 88 / 1963, 1964, 1968, & 2018
Philadelphia (PHL) 102 / 1901
Reading (RDG) 101 / 1901
Trenton (TTN) 98 / 1898, 1901, & 1945
Wilmington (ILG) 97 / 1931 & 1963
Record Warmest Low Temperatures
July 1
Site Record / Year
Allentown (ABE) 74 / 1930
AC Airport (ACY) 77 / 1945
AC Marina (55N) 79 / 1945
Georgetown (GED) 76 / 1945
Mount Pocono (MPO) 67 / 1946, 1971, 2013, 2017, 2025
Philadelphia (PHL) 82 / 1901
Reading (RDG) 76 / 1968
Trenton (TTN) 77 / 1945
Wilmington (ILG) 75 / 2013
Record High Temperatures
July 2
Site Record / Year
Allentown (ABE) 102 / 1966
AC Airport (ACY) 100 / 1966
AC Marina (55N) 97 / 1968
Georgetown (GED) 99 / 1953
Mount Pocono (MPO) 93 / 1911
Philadelphia (PHL) 103 / 1901
Reading (RDG) 102 / 1966
Trenton (TTN) 100 / 1901
Wilmington (ILG) 98 / 1941 & 1966
Record Warmest Low Temperatures
July 2
Site Record / Year
Allentown (ABE) 75 / 2013
AC Airport (ACY) 79 / 2002
AC Marina (55N) 76 / 2012
Georgetown (GED) 77 / 1959
Mount Pocono (MPO) 70 / 1903
Philadelphia (PHL) 82 / 1901
Reading (RDG) 79 / 1901
Trenton (TTN) 79 / 1901
Wilmington (ILG) 75 / 1941 & 2014
Record High Temperatures
July 3
Site Record / Year
Allentown (ABE) 105 / 1966
AC Airport (ACY) 104 / 1966
AC Marina (55N) 99 / 1919
Georgetown (GED) 101 / 1954
Mount Pocono (MPO) 103 / 1911
Philadelphia (PHL) 104 / 1966
Reading (RDG) 103 / 1898 & 1966
Trenton (TTN) 102 / 1966
Wilmington (ILG) 102 / 1966
Record Warmest Low Temperatures
July 3
Site Record / Year
Allentown (ABE) 75 / 2018
AC Airport (ACY) 78 / 2018
AC Marina (55N) 76 / 1983, 2002, & 2018
Georgetown (GED) 79 / 1953
Mount Pocono (MPO) 69 / 2013
Philadelphia (PHL) 77 / 1876, 1901, &2002
Reading (RDG) 76 / 2018
Trenton (TTN) 76 / 1901 & 1966
Wilmington (ILG) 76 / 2002
Record High Temperatures
July 4
Site Record / Year
Allentown (ABE) 102 / 1949
AC Airport (ACY) 102 / 1966
AC Marina (55N) 99 / 1966
Georgetown (GED) 100 / 1966
Mount Pocono (MPO) 99 / 1911
Philadelphia (PHL) 103 / 1966
Reading (RDG) 100 / 1911 & 1966
Trenton (TTN) 99 / 1919, 1999, & 2010
Wilmington (ILG) 102 / 1966
Record Warmest Low Temperatures
July 4
Site Record / Year
Allentown (ABE) 75 / 1999
AC Airport (ACY) 75 / 1974, 1983, 1999, & 2002
AC Marina (55N) 79 / 2002
Georgetown (GED) 75 / 1999 & 2012
Mount Pocono (MPO) 70 / 2002 & 2013
Philadelphia (PHL) 79 / 1919
Reading (RDG) 78 / 1966
Trenton (TTN) 78 / 1966
Wilmington (ILG) 76 / 1999
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NJZ001-007>010-012>020-027.
Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NJZ021>026.
DE...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MPS/Staarmann
AVIATION...MPS/Staarmann
MARINE...AKL/MPS/Staarmann