Mountain Creek Snow Report

102 FXUS61 KPHI 160823 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 423 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence in a stretch of unsettled weather beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front moves through on Thursday Night, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of the front, mainly for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and northern New Jersey Thursday afternoon and evening. 2. A stretch of unsettled weather begins on Sunday, continuing into the first half of next week. Monitoring the potential for heavy rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front moves through on Thursday Night, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of the front, mainly for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and northern New Jersey Thursday afternoon and evening. High pressure moves offshore today but will remain in control resulting in a beautiful Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. The high moves further offshore tonight into Thursday with a cold front moving into the northwest. Forcing is not very strong though with the front and instability/shear will be lacking, so not much in terms of impacts expected with this frontal passage. However, some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop out ahead of the front on Thursday. Coverage of any precipitation will be mainly over the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and northern New Jersey during the day on Thursday. As the front pushes through on Thursday evening and Thursday Night, some scattered showers will push through the rest of the area, but nothing of concern is expected and rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch. High pressure then moves in for Friday and Saturday, with a two pack of relatively quiet days expected. A stretch of above normal temperatures will continue for today and peak on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 80s. The passing front on Thursday Night will knock down temperatures a bit on Friday, but highs should still be above normal. The cooler airmass lags behind the front and won`t arrive until Friday Night/Saturday, where more seasonable temperatures are expected. KEY MESSAGE 2...A stretch of unsettled weather begins on Sunday, continuing into the first half of next week. Monitoring the potential for heavy rain. A warm front lifts through on Saturday Night, ushering in a more humid airmass. A cold front approaches from the west on Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop out ahead of the front. Sunday looks pretty active and unsettled as the front slowly pushes in. The current forecast has 50-80% PoPs across the region for the daytime period. The front is expected to stall over the region for the first half of the week, with multiple waves of low pressure moving along the boundary. This will result in periods of rain with perhaps a few thunderstorms mixed in each day. There is some concern for heavy rain and flash flooding as a humid airmass should be in place with a slow moving or stalled boundary overhead. However, we are now in meteorological fall, and the question remains how much instability will be in place which will factor into rainfall rates. NBM Probability of 1 inch or greater Sunday and Monday is around 35-55%. Still in the day 5 to 7 range with this stretch, so definitely some uncertainty in the forecast and things could change. The unsettled pattern should continue through the middle of the week until a sweeping cold front comes through. Most medium range guidance has that front coming through sometime Wednesday or Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR/SKC. Light/variable to calm winds around 5 kt or less, favoring a south/southeast direction. High confidence. Today...VFR. South/southwest winds around 5 to 10 kt. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. Increasing cloud cover and perhaps a few light showers around KRDG/KABE but nothing of concern. Light winds 5 kt or less favoring a south/southwest direction. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday...Primarily VFR. Cannot rule out a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms around KRDG/KABE but chances remain low (15-25%). Thursday Night...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers move through as a cold front passes though restrictions appear unlikely (less than 10%). Friday through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather. Saturday Night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%) especially on Sunday as more widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms move into the area. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through Thursday with winds out of the south/southwest around 5 to 15 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet. Outlook... Thursday Night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected at this time. Rip Currents... Today...Breaking waves in the surf zone of 1-2 feet are forecast with a southerly wind around 10 MPH and a 6-8 second period. These conditions will result in the continuation of a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all New Jersey and Delaware Beaches. Thursday...Southerly flow increases some, however similar breaking wave heights and wave period are forecast. Therefore, a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents are forecast at all New Jersey and Delaware beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich MARINE...Gorse/Hoeflich