Mountain Creek snow report

128 FXUS61 KPHI 060824 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 424 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in this evening as a cold front sweeps through. A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather is in place from the I-95 corridor and points north and west with damaging winds as the primary threat. 2. Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week with warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in this evening as a cold front sweeps through. A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather is in place from the I-95 corridor and points north and west with damaging winds as the primary threat. A cold front will move across Pennsylvania and New York through today. The front will encounter a warm and unstable airmass, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop well off to our west later today. Storms likely will congeal and form a broken line segment or several broken line segments as they move toward our area. The cluster of storms will move into our area later this evening, likely no earlier than 5 to 6 PM over the Lehigh Valley and Southern Poconos. This cluster of storms likely will push through the I-95 corridor between 8 to 11 PM and then offshore by early tomorrow morning. With steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 degrees C/km, strong downdrafts/gusty winds are likely to accompany some of the thunderstorms. A secondary threat with these storms also is the potential for 1" hail in stronger storms. No real changes to the Severe Weather Outlook, with a Slight Risk (2/5) in place for the I-95 corridor and points north and west. The main failure mode with these storms could be a lack of moisture as the airmass has been quite dry and we don`t really have strong moisture advection out ahead of the front. The 00z NAMNest kind of hints at this solution with limited coverage in convection. The timing also isn`t favorable for widespread severe weather, especially south and east of the I-95 corridor. Those are two factors to keep in mind after the afternoon and evening goes on. No flooding concerns as QPF amounts generally will be around a tenth to three tenths of an inch with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms. Convection should be fast moving as well. As the initial front goes through, things should dry out pretty quickly. Cannot rule out some patchy fog though in areas that see some rainfall. The drier airmass will hold off until the secondary front passes later on Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week with warming temperatures. The region will remain embedded within a belt of somewhat enhanced mid-level flow through early next week as sharp trough located over New England begins to close off and track slowly eastward away from the region. Thereafter, mid-level ridging will likely begin to take shape across the region through late week. At the surface, a cold front will shift southeastward through the region late Sunday into Monday. In its wake, high pressure will shift into the area, and generally remain in place, though it may begin to break down some by late week. The cold front late Sunday into Monday looks to usher in slightly cooler temperatures, with high temperatures on Monday generally in the upper 70s to low 80s, and temperatures overnight Monday night falling into the low to mid 50s. The cool down does look to be fairly short lived with the high pressure taking shape across the area afterwards. Steady warming is expected Tuesday and beyond, with widespread low 90s by Wednesday and perhaps even mid or upper 90s by late week. In terms of precipitation chances, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday night. Thereafter, as the high pressure breaks down slightly, isolated to scattered, primarily diurnally driven convection will be possible mid-late week. For now, PoPs are generally in the 20-40% range each day Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR. Light winds favoring a south/southwest direction around 5 kt or less. High confidence. Today and Tonight...Primarily VFR. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off to the west later today and push into our area this evening. Have maintained VCTS at KRDG/KABE from 22z-02z but kept out thunder for the I-95 corridor TAFs. Any thunderstorms, if they make it to the I-95 corridor, would likely be after 00z. It is even more unlikely that any thunderstorms make it to KACY/KMIV, but have added a VCSH category after 03z. Restrictions are likely if a thunderstorm moves over the terminal as well as a brief period of gusty winds. Have around a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms moving over KABE/KRDG between 22z-02z, a 20-30% over KPHL/KILG/KTTN/KPNE between 00z-03z, and around a 15-20% chance over KACY/KMIV. Given the lower probabilities outside of the Lehigh Valley, will keep thunder out of the TAFs at the I-95 and South Jersey terminals but will leave open the chance to add in subsequent updates. Winds will be out of the southwest for today, increasing to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt by midday. Moderate confidence in the overall forecast. Outlook... Sunday through Tuesday night...VFR. No significant weather. Wednesday...Primarily VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions can`t be ruled out in isolated to scattered afternoon showers or storms. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through this morning with south/southwest winds around 10-20 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet. For this afternoon and tonight, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for coastal waters north of Great Egg Inlet beginning at 2 PM as winds increase to around 15 to 25 kt out of the southwest and seas get near 5 feet. Lower seas and winds are expected over Delaware Bay and south of Great Egg Inlet, where sub-SCA conditions are expected for this afternoon and tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds under 25 kt and seas less than 5 feet. Rip Currents... For today, southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 3 feet with a light easterly swell around 8 seconds. Have maintained a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches. On Sunday, west-northwest winds of 5-15 mph. Breaking waves will be 2-3 feet. There may be an increased south-southeasterly swell around 7-8 seconds. Given the increased swell, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore. There is a LOW risk at Delaware beaches where it currently appears the increased swell will not have as much influence. Ocean water temperatures are generally near 60 degrees for much of the Jersey Shore and the low 60s for Delaware beaches. These chilly water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>452. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/Hoeflich AVIATION...Cooper/Hoeflich MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich