Snowpark Meadowlands Snow Report

929 FXUS61 KOKX 160615 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 215 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Shower chance for late Thu / Thu night. 2) Dry and pleasant Friday into the start of the weekend. 3) Wet weather increasingly likely later in the weekend and possibly carrying into the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level ridge in place and centered SW of the area should keep the region predominantly dry through tonight and into early Thursday. Heights begin to low some late Thursday into Thursday night. With the approach of a cold front the relatively higher chance of showers should be late in the day Thursday and during Thursday night. Latest consensus of the CAM guidance suggest that the activity initially will have difficulty holding together as it translates east, with any activity right along the cold front perhaps holding together some as it slides east. Essentially carried chance to slight chance PoPs from NW to SE very late in the day Thu through Thu night. There have been some runs of the NAM suggesting more of a shower or t-storm chance during the day Thursday, with the NAM showing more of a MCS for Thu night. For now this solution is not supported by other guidance and thus these more aggressive NAM solution(s) appears unlikely at this time. The cold front is progged by NWP and AI consensus to get off the coast by 12z Friday morning. QPF output at this time remains rather light. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A cooler and drier airmass will gradually work in behind the cold front during the day Friday and into Friday night. Dewpoints are forecast the gradually fall through the 60s much of the day Friday, and potentially into the middle and upper 40s later Friday night. This would allow outlying areas to fall into the upper 40s and 50s with respect to minimum temperatures by Saturday morning. With high pressure getting further east during Saturday afternoon and a developing easterly flow daytime temperatures across portions of the area may struggle to get out of the upper 60s to begin the weekend. .KEY MESSAGE 3... During Saturday night as high pressure departs the New England coast a warm front will approach from the west. This will bring more clouds Saturday night and the likelihood of rain towards Sunday morning. Currently carrying likely PoPs throughout the day Sunday, with high end chance PoPs Sunday night. Afterwards there is some question as to where the front ultimately locks up during the first half of next week with a suggestion that the front goes quasi- stationary. Some NWP deterministic runs have shown the front nudging to the south and allowing some high pressure to build from the north, while the consensus of NWP and AI guidance suggests the front remains nearby or at least close enough to bring an ongoing chance of showers / rain for Monday through Wednesday. Forecast confidence is below average at this time with uncertainty around the positioning of the frontal boundary. Temperatures during this time period may average slightly below normal with guidance indicating an onshore easterly flow. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure over the area this morning will slide offshore this afternoon into tonight. VFR. Light and variable winds early this morning. A light SW flow at 10 kt or less develops Wednesday morning becoming more S through the afternoon. Winds will back towards the SSW-SW this evening and diminish into the overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind shift to the S/SE with seabreeze development on Wednesday may vary by 1-2 hours. Chance KEWR SE sea breeze does not move through late afternoon/early evening with winds remaining SW-SSW. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late Tonight: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower well NW of the NYC metro in the afternoon, chance of showers and MVFR Thursday night. Friday: VFR. Saturday Night-Sunday: Showers possible night, then becoming likely on Sunday with MVFR or lower possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure remains in place through today, before slowly sliding south of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. The pressure gradient will remain weak throughout this time frame with conditions remaining well below advisory levels. Towards late Friday into Friday night marginal small craft conditions may develop for portions of the ocean waters behind a cold front on a NNW wind. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are expected Saturday with high pressure building to the north. The high will move off the New England coast Saturday night into Sunday allowing the winds to become more onshore. Marginal small craft conditions are possible on all waters by Sunday. Rip Currents... For today the rip current risk will be low through midday, but eventually winds will increase enough out of the S/SW to increase the rip current risk to moderate for all beaches except eastern Suffolk county beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on all south-facing Long Island beaches on Thursday, especially as swell increases under stronger winds in the latter portion of the day. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...DS MARINE...JE