Massanutten Resort Snow Report

302 FXUS61 KRNK 060720 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 320 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little or no change to forecast. Weather pattern supports daily chance for showers and thunderstorms with greatest coverage over the mountains and adjacent foothills. && .KEY MESSAGES... Unsettled weather will persist through the rest of this week and into upcoming weekend. Risk for excessive rainfall is marginal. Greatest chance for rainfall will be over the mountains and adjacent foothills. Lower chance for piedmont. && .DISCUSSION... Large scale flow aloft features a subtropical Atlantic Ridge, a.k.a. Bermuda High off the southeast Atlantic Coast and a broad upper level trough over the north central CONUS. This configuration will maintain a south to southwesterly fetch of deep layer moisture advecting northward into the central Appalachians through the upcoming weekend and quite possibly all of next week. With no sign of any main feature or wave traversing across the area, the forcing mechanism for convection will largely be daytime heating and orographic lift keeping the greatest chances across the mountains and adjacent foothills each day. High PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range will support hydrometeor loading within showers and storms to be efficient rain producers and allow for isolated flash flooding potential as well. See the hydrology section below for more details. The upper trough to our northwest will occasionally steer a short wave across the Ohio Valley, of which may have downstream implications for a round of stronger, potentially somewhat more organized storms. Trying to pick this out of the noise is a timing and placement challenge however with predictability too low to highlight with any confidence. In general using a wide paint brush to highlight the pops the next several days, with greatest confidence across the mountains where orographic lift and differential heating will have best chance to provide low level lift. As for temperatures, will be going with persistence with highs mainly in the 80s...basically near the seasonal normal for highs and 3 to 5 degrees above normal for the overnight lows, the elevated dewpoints acting as a floor for overnight lows. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect patchy morning fog in the mountain valleys and some sct- bkn MVFR cigs. Once daytime heating begins any fog and low cloud will dissipate leaving widespread VFR. Cloud buildups early afternoon over the mountains will result in repeat cycle of scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers with greatest coverage over the mountains. Winds look to become south/southwest at around 10 knots today. but will gust into the 15-20 knot range at LYH and DAN during the afternoon and evening hours. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Forecast persistence through the end of the week and weekend with moist unstable airmass contributing to daily threat of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Overnight fog development also expected with greatest concentration within the mountain valleys. && .HYDROLOGY... There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall the next several days. Repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms amidst a moist air mass will persist the remainder of this week. Not a lot of confidence in the details for any particular location. PWAT values expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00" range. High ambient moisture will produce very efficient rainfall rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban areas and along mountainous terrain will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding. Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits across the Piedmont. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM AVIATION...PM HYDROLOGY...PM