Massanutten Resort Snow Report

785 FXUS61 KRNK 180624 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 224 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast with daily chances of showers/storms into next week. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms. Summertime pattern continues into early next week, then a cool down. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms. Summertime pattern continues into early next week then a cool down. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the Mid- Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the area . Surface dewpoints within this airmass will be in the 60s to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate instability will develop along the moist axis. In response to surface heating, scattered thunderstorms will form in the mountains and move southward into the Piedmont and foothills. The thermodynamic environment may be enough to support an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly in the late afternoon and early evening when low- level lapse rates become steepest, especially along/south of the VA/NC border. The front shift south Saturday but close enough to keep shower/storm chances around with higher probabilities over the southern Blue Ridge, and less across the central VA Piedmont. Airmass should be a little more stable so not expecting anything severe. The front works north Sunday as a warm front, then drops again early next week, while upper trough starts to dig southeast into the Ohio Valley. Should see an uptick in rain chances Monday- Tuesday. By mid to late week the fronts should be east and south of us and high pressure arrives from the north. However, the upper trough remains northwest of the area and will keep shower chances around while temperatures cool to below normal. For most, this will be much needed rain, but still overall doesn`t look like a complete washout. Just keep the umbrellas handy at times. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Moisture from Thursday showers and valley inversions will likely to lead to some patchy fog overnight with period of dense fog possible in the mountain valleys between 09z/2AM and 13z/10AM Friday especially LWB. Fog burns off by mid morning with VFR expected through the day. Front approaching from the north will bring another opportunity for scattered storms Friday and possible sub-VFR cigs/vsby if storms move over terminals. Due to the scattered nature only have VCTS in all terminals. After 00z/Sat should see convection wane though potential sub- VFR cigs may occur with frontal boundary close. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly diurnal shower/storm chances through Tuesday especially over the mountains. Front is expected to stall over the area this weekend which may lead to low cigs both Saturday and Sunday in addition to valley fog...especially at night and during the morning both Saturday and Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/SH/WP AVIATION...PM/SH/WP