Massanutten Resort snow report

164 FXUS61 KRNK 170618 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 218 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold front later this week may bring precipitation and end to the warming trend. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming trend continues with record highs possible. KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in a cold front passage with a chance of rain for the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming trend continues with record highs possible. It is going to get considerably hot for this time of year for the entire region. A surface high pressure system has settled over Bermuda and mid-level ridging continues to grow over the southeast CONUS. Southwesterly winds between the high and a developing low pressure system in the Great Plains will create southwesterly winds that will advect warmer and moist air. The warmth will be felt Sunday (today) afternoon and the next few days with highs in upper 80s to mid-90s. The NRV could see highs touching 90 on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. It is worth repeating that the public is encouraged to be aware of the hot conditions which may feel "extreme" compared to the cooler temperatures experienced last week. The hot and humid conditions would normally promote an environment for storm development, but with the ridge and surface high pressure`s influence, precipitation for the first half of the week is unlikely or at least seriously limited. KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in a cold front passage with a chance of rain for the region. Models are continuing to agree on the passage of a cold front later this week, possibly as early as Wednesday afternoon. There are two impacts expected with this front. The first is the end to the warming trend as cooler air will be introduced. A surface high pressure system will be over the Great Lakes later in the week and may start wedging into the mountains, entrenching cooler temperatures. The temperature difference may be a high as 20 degrees as highs on Thursday may be only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The second impact is rain. This is a bit broad, but given worsening drought conditions, rain is desperately needed. This event is too far out for our convective allowing models to investigate but the front will likely provide the source of lift for storms. While CAPE will be present thanks to the warm and moist conditions, wind shear will not be as impressive. The better shear will be up north, but even some shear of 20-30 kts may be available as the front crosses. This will support some organized multicells but the severe weather threat, if any, will be determined in future forecasts. The front may also straggle as it crosses the Mid-Atlantic, fighting its way through the western portion of the Bermuda High. Depending on how the front progresses, there could be more than one day of precipitation available. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some VLIFR VSBY/cig due to fog at KLWB this morning and possible reduced conditions at KBLF, otherwise most of sites look to be VFR. Conditions today should be mostly clear to possibly some cirrus and winds generally south to SW under 7 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the beginning of next week. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Monday, May 18, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 94 in 1962 69 in 1996 92 Lynchburg 93 in 1911 68 in 1894 92 Danville 93 in 1974 69 in 2015 93 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 2015 86 Blacksburg 88 in 1911 61 in 2018 88 Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 92 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 94 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 89 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...AB CLIMATE...RCS