Massanutten Resort snow report

970 FXUS61 KRNK 270548 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 148 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The entire forecast has been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout this weekend. 2) Hot and humid conditions will take place by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout this weekend. A cold front should slowly drift southeastward during this weekend, which will serve as a focus for more chances of showers and thunderstorms. However, considerable debris cloudiness and decaying upstream mesoscale convective systems will continue to travel towards the Appalachian Mountains by this morning. If the morning debris cloudiness clears out to allow enough daytime insolation, there is a risk of severe weather due to the threat of damaging winds later this afternoon and evening, particularly across the North Carolina Piedmont. Any stronger storms could also produce some heavy downpours. By Sunday, the cold front should eventually exit Virginia and reach North Carolina. More showers and thunderstorms will develop, but there may be more upstream mesoscale convective systems and debris cloudiness to contend that could hamper instability. Convection should wane towards Sunday night as the cold front reaches the East Coast and exits offshore by Monday. The models indicate a potential for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop during Monday afternoon, but this activity appears notably weaker as an upper level ridge approaches from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions will take place by the middle of next week. A broad upper level ridge should build northeastward from the lower Mississippi River Valley towards the Ohio River Valley between Monday and Wednesday. This ridge could become centered overhead by Thursday and Friday. While chances of showers and thunderstorms should lessen due to capping aloft, the bigger impact will be the increasing heat and humidity. Temperatures should jump notably by Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 90s for most locations and even a few spots east of the Blue Ridge may break 100 degrees. Heat indices could reach the lower 100s across the Piedmont. The models show considerable differences by the end of next week, but there may be upper level troughing across southeastern Canada that could cause the ridge to gradually weaken and retrograde. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Incoming showers may start to impact LWB and BLF tonight as a thunderstorm complex pushes east out of eastern Kentucky tonight into southern West Virginia. This may lead to some brief restrictions at both of these terminals as these showers move into the area of these terminals. The longevity of this shower and thunderstorm complex is uncertain once it passes the two aforementioned terminals, and may break up prior to reaching further east terminals such as BCB, ROA, LYH and DAN. Given this uncertainty, have opted out of including showers or thunderstorms for these terminals early Saturday morning. Continued uncertainty exists in afternoon and evening thunderstorm development today as this system may lead to cloud debris across the region inhibiting substantial instability from developing across much of the area. If this does occur, thunderstorm activity may be kept at a minimum across the region, with scattered showers possible instead. For the time being, VCTS has been included at nearly all terminals, with BLF and LWB having TSRA through the afternoon hours. Depending on the placement of shower and thunderstorm activity, there may be some left over cloud debris that may lead to some MVFR CIGs at mountain terminals through the afternoon and evening hours today. This cloud cover may linger through the end of the TAF period. Overall, regardless of shower and thunderstorm activity, southwest winds at around 5-10 knots expected at all terminals, with gusts up to 15-20 knots being possible across mountain terminals today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Another mid and upper level disturbance pushes through the region on Sunday, the potential exists for additional showers and thunderstorms to impact terminals once again. By Monday, High pressure settles into the region, and ridging looks to build over the central/eastern Conus, providing several days of likely VFR conditions across the region through the middle of next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW AVIATION...EB