Massanutten Resort Snow Report

496 FXUS61 KRNK 170812 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 412 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... New aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Excessive warmth is forecasted again for today, with an increase in moisture supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. 2) Passage of an upper level disturbance overtop an approaching cold front will support scattered strong to severe storms on Saturday. 3) Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will persist from Sunday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Excessive warmth is forecasted again for today, with an increase in moisture supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Moisture continues to gradually increase, and will support the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during this afternoon. Given continued upper level ridging across the lower Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas, believe that storms will remain disorganized, but given strong heating allowing CAPE values to range from 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg this afternoon, and precipitable water values increasing into the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range, can`t rule out a few storms becoming capable of strong to damaging wind gusts and localized heavy rain. The afore- mentioned ridging will also support afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s across portions of the mountains to the mid 90s across the Piedmont, which is taking into account smoke from wildfires in Canada helping to limit temperatures a couple of degrees cooler. As such, heat indices will reach into the 100 to 103 degree range today during mid-afternoon across Southside Virginia into central North Carolina. KEY MESSAGE 2...Passage of an upper level disturbance overtop an approaching cold front will support scattered strong to severe storms on Saturday. An upper level disturbance is expected to pass across the southern Great Lakes region on Saturday as a cold front approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Latest guidance suggests that storms will develop along the Blue Ridge with early afternoon heating, and then gradually shift east across the Piedmont during late afternoon into the evening. The disturbance will provide the support needed for storms to become scattered in coverage, and capable of producing damaging wind gusts. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the Piedmont in a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms, while a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms exists across the mountains. Most storms are forecasted to exit our area to the east by around 8 PM, though a few may linger into late evening. These storms will also be capable of producing heavy downpours, but are expected to pass east fast enough to limit the potential for flash flooding. KEY MESSAGE 3...Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will persist from Sunday into the middle of next week. The approaching cold front may stall near the upper Ohio River Valley into northern Virginia on Sunday, which would focus the greater chances of rainfall further to the south. As such, will be keeping an eye out for an increased flooding threat with possible training of storms along the boundary, though confidence remains low as to where any flooding may occur. Otherwise, the beginning of the work week looks to be supportive of general chances for daytime showers/storms, then more organized or widespread development could occur again Wednesday with another disturbance and associated cold front potentially traversing the area. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface observations indicate river valley fog has developed across portions of southeast West Virginia into southwest Virginia this morning in otherwise VFR conditions. Expect this fog to burn off between 12Z and 14Z this morning given strong heating. Increased moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the entire area, though do not have enough confidence in coverage to add into the TAFs. Winds are forecasted to remain less than 10kts areawide. OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Shower and storms chances will become scattered in coverage across the lower Mid-Atlantic Saturday into early next week, with potential sub-MVFR or conditions. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will also be possible each morning. A westerly wind with speeds between 6 and 12 kts will develop on Saturday and Sunday, with occasional gusts as high as 25 kts. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Air Quality Alert from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ019-020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NF AVIATION...NF