Windham College Snow Report

804 FXUS61 KALY 190644 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 244 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Outside of the ADKs, bumped up temps and dew points a couple degrees through the rest of the night as high clouds have been a little thicker/more widespread than previously expected. For Sunday, the excessive rainfall outlook has been trimmed back significantly, with only the I-84 corridor in the marginal risk now. This better agrees with local messaging that flash flooding is not expected. Forecast for early next week has also trended drier. Watching a potential coastal storm towards the very end of the forecast period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry, cool, and pleasant weather is expected today. 2) A low pressure system will bring widespread rain to the region Sunday, followed by drier and cool weather for the first half of the week. 3) A coastal storm is expected to track somewhere near the east coast late next week, but confidence is very low whether or not we will see any impacts from this system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:45 AM EDT...Despite sfc high pressure building into southern Canada, a weak upper impulse is leading to fairly widespread high clouds across the region early this morning. These high clouds should gradually move off to the south /southeast over the next few hours, but have been thick enough to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously expected for most of the region. The exception is the ADKs, where there have been more breaks in the clouds and temperatures are already in the upper 30s to low 40s per latest NYS mesonet obs. For the rest of the region, lows will be mainly in the 40s, with some 50s possible near I-84. This means temps will drop several more degrees between now and sunrise as the high clouds clear out and winds gradually weaken. Today looks like a beautiful early fall day. With the sfc high sliding overhead, we will see dry conditions with just some scattered high clouds around. Humidity will remain low with highs in the 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Tonight into tomorrow, a sfc low will develop along a stalled frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley in response to another upper shortwave. This sfc low will track south of the region on Sunday, bringing widespread rain to the region. As the sfc low strengthens, so will the LLJ that will help advect more moisture into the region. PWATs rise to 1.5 - 1.75" per the latest HREF, which is high for mid to late September, albeit not exceptionally so. The sfc warm front remains south of our region, but with the sloping mid-level warm front lifting north into the Mid Hudson Valley, there will be plenty of warm advection/isentropic lift to provide forcing for ascent, as will the right entrance region of an upper jet streak passing by to our north. Rainfall amounts have ticked up slightly for northern areas, which are now expected to see a general half to three quarters of an inch. From around I-90 south, 0.75 to 1.5" of rain is expected, with some locally higher amounts possible closer to the I-84 corridor near the best mid-level forcing. With rain leading to wetbulb cooling Sunday, highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s for most areas. Our thinking regarding hydro issues has not changed for Sunday: aside from some nuisance ponding of water in the typical low- lying, urban, and poor drainage areas, hydro issues are not expected. We collaborated with WPC to have the marginal risk ERO trimmed back significantly with only the I-84 corridor now included. This now better aligns with our local messaging that given the lack of instability, stratiform nature of the rain, and high FFG values, flash flooding is not expected Sunday. In fact, this rain will be beneficial for most areas, especially the Mid Hudson Valley where <0.25" of rain has fallen in the last 5 days. Rain tapers to showers and comes to an end Sunday evening/night as a strong (1030 mb) sfc high builds E/SE into southern Canada beneath confluent upper flow. This sfc high will be the main driver for our weather through the first half of the week as it slowly drifts N/NE of our region, and will result in cool, dry E/NE flow. NBM has finally caught onto the drier solution we mentioned yesterday for Monday - Wednesday, as the strong sfc high should suppress any precip south of our region with low to mid-level dry air in place. The only exception is possibly Tuesday morning, when a few showers can`t be ruled out near the immediate I-84 corridor with a passing upper disturbance. Given cool E/NE flow, highs each day will be mainly in the 50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys) with lows in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys) each night. KEY MESSAGE 3...Guidance has been hinting at a upper trough or closed upper low tracking from the Ohio Valley off the Mid-Atlantic coast late next week, and given that there has been some consistency in this signal for a few days we felt it deserves to be mentioned. As the ULL moves off the coast, a sfc low is expected to develop and strengthen as it tracks to the northeast. Some of yesterday`s 12/18z guidance and tonight`s 00z guidance indicates that the sfc low could come close enough to the coast to result in at least some rain for our area. Given that moisture looks quite abundant with this coastal low, we will continue to monitor closely over the coming days. That said, guidance is notorious for struggling with the placement of these closed upper lows in the medium to long range, so confidence in the track of the coastal low is quite low. Additional forecast changes should be expected over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z Sunday...As of 12:50 AM EDT, flying conditions remain VFR at all terminals. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with BKN high clouds through the rest of the night becoming more scattered today. Only exception is if some patchy fog/mist forms briefly around sunrise at GFL and/or PSF. Confidence is low whether any fog will form or not, but did not see compelling enough evidence to totally remove the tempo groups for MVFR vsbys and mist that were included in the previous TAFs. Winds will generally be at 4-8 kt from the N/NE through late afternoon/early evening, at which point winds become light and variable through 06z Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...35