Windham Mountain Snow Report

907 FXUS61 KALY 300656 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 256 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased cloud cover today to mostly cloudy conditions in the late morning through the afternoon across the forecast area and slightly lowered max temps from the NBM values. Also kept slight chances for thunderstorms south of the Capital Region across the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. Unsettled weather pattern for most of next week beginning Mon night and continuing through the mid week with some localized heavy rainfall and some strong thunderstorms for parts of the region especially Tue through Wed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increasing clouds with widely scattered to scattered showers showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms south of the Capital Region this afternoon into tonight with seasonable temps. 2) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through the mid week with potentially some strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday due to a stalled frontal boundary nearby. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure moves east to southeast of southeast New England this morning. Mid and high clouds continue to increase across the region. In the west to northwest flow aloft associated with the long-wave trough over eastern Canada and an amplifying ridge over the central CONUS, a mid-level shortwave will move towards the region, as a weak warm front approaches from the south and west. The skies will become mostly cloudy during the late morning through the afternoon and will thicken and lower. The weak forcing and modest low-level moisture convergence will allow for some isolated to scattered light showers to develop and we maintained the 20-40% PoPs from the Capital Region north and west, and kept 30-50% PoPs south and east. Some of the CAMs such as the 3-km NAM have a bit more coverage south and east of Albany today with some thunderstorms developing. The latest HREF guidance shows mean SBCAPEs mainly less than 500 J/kg south of the Capital District. The 0-6 km shear is 35-40 KT but the lack of instability should limit updraft height and strength, and mid level lapse rates remain weak. The thunderstorms are not expected to severe. We confined the slight chance of thunderstorms from about Hudson in Columbia County south and east towards I-84. Max temps today were lowered about 2-4 degrees below the NBM values due to the mostly cloudy conditions with highs in the upper 70s to about 80F in the major valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s over the terrain. A cold front sinks southward across the region tonight into Monday morning, as high pressure will build in. The scattered showers and isolated t-storms end early. Some patchy fog especially in the major valleys and low stratus will develop and were slightly expanded in the forecast. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Most of the day Monday should remain dry with a 1022 hPa or so sfc high building in from southern Quebec. By the afternoon, the stalled cold front over NY-PA may starts to lift back as a warm front and interact with a mid-leve short- wave. Some showers may develop west of the Hudson River Valley in the mid to late pm. Temps will be seasonable in the 70s to around 80F with a few cooler readings over the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure moves east of the region, as the upstream ridging continues to increase over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes Region and Ontario with the closed anticyclone centered over the TN Valley and Southeast Mon night into Tue morning. A warm front slowly lifts north of the region Mon night for periods of showers/rain to develop due to the increasing isentropic lift. Some weak elevated instability is present, so we placed a slight chance of t-storms from the Capital Region northward. An MCS/decaying MCS may move across the region. The rainfall may become briefly moderate to heavy, especially along and north of I-90, as PWATs rise above normal in the 1 to 2 STDEV range based on the NAEFS. WPC has the entire region in Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) in ERO prior to 12Z/Tue. Dry antecedent conditions should limit any widespread hydro threat, though some ponding of water on roadways and/or poor drainage flooding may occur in a few spots. Lows will be milder in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tue through the mid-week continues to be a challenging and uncertain stretch of the forecast, as a few short-wave disturbances track around the rim of upstream ridge and impact the forecast area with showers and some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. As the previous discussion mentioned, the timing of these disturbances with the diurnal heating and the placement of the front will be some of the keys for the robust threat of severe storms. The warm front and a weakening/decaying MCS continues to move through Tuesday morning. Another impulse/short-wave may bring additional showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Tue based on the medium range guidance/AI/ensembles. Humidity levels will be on the increase with dewpoints in the 60s to close to 70F near POU, as max temps will be near or above normal in the 70s to lower 80s. Tue night into Wed, the guidance varies when a strong short- wave could bring an MCS with strong/potentially severe t-storms to parts of the region with heavy rainfall. The latest GFS would lean towards Tue night/Wed morning with some heavy rain of a few inches for locations along and north of I-90, while the EC and EC AI and some of the ensembles more in the Wed-Wed night time frame. WPC conditions ERO`s D3 and D4 (Tue-Wed night) in the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for isolated flash flooding/heavy rainfall possible due to training/back building storms. A strong mid-level jet with 0-6 km shear close to 50 KT and some moderate/high instability could promote a more robust severe threat towards Wed. SPC`s old Day 4-8 outlook graphic continues to highlight 15-29% probabilities (Slight Risk) for severe weather for locations south and west of the Albany Wed- Wed night. Additional showers/t-storms will be possible on Thu with another upper level disturbance and a pre-frontal sfc trough impacting the region. Still too early to tell if t-storms will be strong to severe. The cold front moves through with scattered showers Thu night into Friday with a trend to cooler, drier and less humid conditions for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday... VFR conditions start off this TAF period, with high clouds continuing to build in across the region. There is potential for some low level stratus to develop at KPSF, but no significant impacts to vis/cigs are expected at this time. Winds out of the south to southwest will begin to strengthen after daybreak today as cigs continue to gradually lower, with some gusty conditions developing by the afternoon at all terminals. The chance for scattered showers will begin to increase after 18Z, with more confidence of consistent rainfall at KPOU and KPSF throughout the late afternoon and evening hours. There is not a significant chance for thunderstorm development at this time, so refrained from including them in this TAF cycle, although confidence could increase depending on cloud development throughout the day on Sunday. Any showers that do develop could bring brief drops to MVFR, and will begin to dissipate around and shortly after sunset. Low-to-mid level cigs will persist over the last several hours of this TAF period, with MVFR cigs expected at KPSF, while KGFL and KALB should remain marginally VFR. Gusty winds will also weaken after sunset, becoming calm to light and variable at all terminals through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...23