Alta Sierra At Shirley Meadows Snow Report

879 FXUS65 KVEF 310638 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1138 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorm activity is expected over northwest Arizona today, some of which may lead to flash flooding. * Dry and relatively cooler conditions are on track for most areas through the rest of the workweek. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday. The primary forecast concern for today is heavy rainfall potential over northwestern Arizona. The current pattern aloft includes high pressure over the southern half of the United States and a trough off the Pacific Coast. Southwesterly flow between these two features maintains dry conditions for most of the region west of the Colorado River. However, ensembles indicate between 1.0 and 1.6 inch of PWAT over northwestern Arizona as well as eastern Lincoln and Clark counties. At the same time, a shortwave will push through the Great Basin, providing a boost of instability and lift. High resolution guidance shows upwards of 2400 J/kg SBCAPE over Mohave County coinciding with the shortwave passage. Between instability and moisture, robust storms with efficient rain rates leading to flash flooding is the main concern. Issued a Flood Watch for this morning through the evening for northern Mohave County where the flood threat appears the greatest. Looking ahead, the trough may be able to draw moisture from Hurricane Karina, but forecast soundings show it mainly in the form of high cloud cover, if it makes it at all. Also watching for another potential push of tropical moisture at the end of the week, but confidence remains low at this time. Besides precipitation, southwesterly flow and enhanced 850 mb winds between 30 and 40 knots will maintain gusty surface winds through most of the week. The strongest gusts will be over high terrain in the Mojave Desert, generally peaking between 35 and 40 mph. Temperatures should also bottom out on Wednesday with highs around 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...South- southwest breezes continue throughout the TAF period, with gusts picking up by mid/late morning and persisting through sunset. Peak gusts 20-30 knots. Some uncertainty Monday evening as outflow from storms in northwestern AZ tries to reach the valley. If it does (30% chance), expect an easterly or northeasterly wind shift. Few to scattered clouds above 10kft. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds tonight give way to another round of southerly to westerly breezes on Monday. Afternoon gusts generally 15-30 knots, waning in most locations around sunset. Isolated to scattered convection anticipated in Mohave County and eastern Lincoln County, posing the risk of strong outflow winds and heavy rain. Will have to see if thunderstorm outflow can reach sites in the lower Colorado River Valley (50% chance) and the Las Vegas Valley (30% chance) Monday evening. Precipitation chances begin to wane after sunset. Isolated to scattered clouds at or above 10kft in most locations, with scattered to broken conditions where convective coverage is greatest. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter