Beech Mountain Ski Resort snow report

109 FXUS62 KGSP 130637 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 237 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flash Flood Watch has been issued until 8 PM today for the northern mountains and northern foothills of North Carolina. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Very active convective weather is expected to continue through today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the northern NC mountains and northern foothills until 8 PM today. Localized flash flooding will be possible across the remainder of the area as well. Isolated severe storms are also possible across the southern part of the area this afternoon. Otherwise, well-below normal high temperatures are forecast through Tuesday. 2. A return to seasonably hot and drier conditions is expected during the latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Very active convective weather is expected to continue through today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the northern NC mountains and northern foothills until 8 PM today. Localized flash flooding will be possible across the remainder of the area as well. Isolated severe storms are also possible across the southern part of the area this afternoon. Otherwise, well-below normal high temperatures are forecast through Tuesday. Convection remains fairly widespread across the forecast area early this morning, especially along and northeast of the Blue Ridge escarpment...north of a backdoor cold front that has sagged south of the I-85 corridor. The intensity of the convection has been steadily weakening over the past couple of hours, and this trend is generally expected to continue through sunrise. In the interim, current convection is proving to be quite efficient in terms of precip production...owing to precipitable water values of around 2" and warm cloud depths of around 12 kft. Localized hourly rainfall amounts up to 3" have occurred, across the foothills, and there is a threat for flash flooding over the next few hours, especially across the northern NC foothills and eastern slopes of the northern mountains...owing to a develop, albeit fairly weak SE upslope flow. A relative lull in the flash flood threat is expected later this morning as convective coverage continues to wane, but convection should blossom again this afternoon into the evening, as the air mass modestly destabilizes in continued very moist conditions. The flash flood threat will again ramp up during this time, especially across the eastern escarpment areas of NC, where poor antecedent conditions are expected, and where the ESE upslope flow is forecast to intensify somewhat. By Monday evening, 24-hour rainfall totals of 2-4" are expected across much of the area (lesser amounts closer to the TN border), with locally higher amounts of 5" or more very much in the realm of possibility. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the northern NC mountains and foothills. Away from this area, flash flooding will certainly be of some concern, but the threat will be more localized in nature...dependent largely upon which basins are primed due to recent localized heavy rainfall. There is a lesser concern for severe storms this afternoon...mainly across the southern part of the area where the most significant instability is expected. Even there, destabilization is expected to be limited by extensive morning cloud cover, but just enough buoyancy combined with lingering deep layer shear of 20-30 kts may be just enough to allow for a couple of stray severe storms. NE low level flow, cloud cover, and showers/storms are expected to result in high temperatures 10 or more degrees below climo. NE flow is expected to steadily deepen tonight into Tuesday, as stacked/weak cyclone to our west retrogrades into the Deep South. This will allow for gradual infiltration of lower thete-E/more stable air into the forecast area. Nevertheless, ESE upslope flow will continue into the overnight, with some potential for showers to linger across the eastern escarpment, and perhaps the southern part of the area through the night. The Flash Flood Watch currently expires at 8 PM today, but it`s not out of the question that this may need extension into the overnight hours. Much of the CWA should see the benefits of the advection of lower theta-E air from the NE and extensive low cloud cover on Tuesday, as guidance generally indicates little-to-no destabilization, except perhaps across the southern periphery of the area, and across the higher terrain near the TN border. These areas are where PoPs for diurnal convection will be advertised Tues, but the bulk of the CWA should be largely free of showers and storms Tue afternoon/evening. High temperatures are forecast to remain well below normal. Key message 2: A return to seasonably hot and drier conditions is expected during the latter half of next week. Upper ridging is forecast to be the dominant synoptic feature across the East during the latter half of the week. This will result in a modifying air mass/return to seasonably hot conditions by Thursday... with near-to-slightly above normal temps forecast to continue through next weekend. Heat Index concerns could crop up again during this time, with 100+ values forecast across southern areas and Charlotte metro most afternoons...although there is no clear signal for Heat Advisory concerns at this time. Despite the seasonably hot and muggy conditions, the synoptic pattern will be somewhat non- conducive to convective development...and PoPs for diurnal convection are generally limited to near, or even below seasonal levels...with at most widely scattered activity forecast each afternoon across the high terrain, with generally isolated coverage forecast elsewhere. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and thunderstorms continue across mainly the foothills portion of the Terminal Forecast Area this morning. Tempos for TSRA are warranted at most sites through the first 2-3 hours of the period. While activity should linger through the morning, a general downward trend in coverage and intensity is expected, with tempos transitioning to VCSH by daybreak. MVFR cigs are gradually filling in across the area early this morning, and these should lower to IFR at all sites between 08-12Z, and at least tempo IFR clouds are therefore advertised during that time frame. Low clouds are forecast to be stubborn to lift and/or scatter during the daylight hours, with improvement to MVFR not expected until afternoon at most sites. Coverage of showers and storms is expected to ramp up again during the afternoon and evening, with Prob30s for TSRA advertised at all sites from 18-24Z. Any improvement in cigs is expected to reverse Monday evening, with IFR likely returning by 06Z Tuesday, although this trend is generally not reflected in the current TAF for the sake of brevity. Outlook: Drier conditions should develop Tuesday into Wednesday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mtn valleys and in locations that receive appreciable rainfall from the previous day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-035-049-050- 501>506. SC...None. && $$ JDL