Bestruns Snow Report

877 FXUS63 KMPX 240804 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 304 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A somewhat active period is expected through early next week with multiple chances for precip and seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Regional radar shows an area of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Dakotas into north central Minnesota early this morning. For the most part, this precip has only brushed our northernmost counties. As the low levels continue to saturate and a 40-50kt LLJ persists, rain will fill in across western Minnesota over the next couple of hours. Along and west of a line from Little Falls through Redwood Falls will see the bulk of the rain through late this morning with anywhere from 0.25 to 0.50" expected. The better moisture never really makes it much further east, so southern and eastern Minnesota will likely see more precip in the form of drizzle than actual rain. Regardless, overcast skies will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s area wide today. Most of the day Friday should be dry before our next chance of rain arrives overnight into early Saturday. Another trough tries to make its way east, but its progress will be stalled by the blocking high over the eastern Great Lakes/Canada that has been parked there for the last few days. Additionally, another round of dry air will work its way into the region with southeasterly flow aloft. Once again, this will inhibit the eastward extent of any showers. The second half of the weekend, we finally start to see a cutoff low over northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and a system along the east coast break down the stubborn surface high. A longwave trough comes ashore in the Pacific Northwest to start the work week and looks to bring yet another round of precip chances our way late Monday into Tuesday. Of these three systems (this morning, Saturday, and Monday/Tuesday), this last one looks to be the strongest. This will likely lead to a more widespread rain event with a broad area of 0.50" to 1" QPF totals, but the risk of excessive rainfall and severe weather both remain low. Model spread is still fairly high at this point in time, but this will be something to keep an eye on during the final days of September. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 A few showers out ahead of the main area of convection back across the eastern Dakotas managed to skirt just to the north of KAXN at the start of the TAF period. Expecting the showers to continue to fill in early this morning with MVFR cigs spreading east. The main question is how far east will they make it before being overcome by dry air and fizzling out. Confidence is highest for IFR cigs/vis impacting KAXN/KRWF/KSTC by mid to late morning and lasting through the end of the forecast period. Our other Minnesota terminals will likely see high end MVFR conditions by this afternoon, but IFR does not seem likely at this point. Wisconsin should remain VFR and dry, but did include a PROB30 for KRNH this evening. Drizzle is the most likely form of precip expected from KMSP eastward, if anything does manage to reach the surface. Southeast winds are expected to be strongest across western Minnesota where gusts of up to 20kts are possible with speeds remaining around 10kts elsewhere. KMSP...The edge of the MVFR cloud deck and precip will come very close to KMSP this afternoon. Maintained the PROB30 for -SHRA this afternoon and kept MVFR cigs for late this evening as there is higher confidence in the lower ceilings. However, a return to VFR is expected late in the period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...Chc MVFR. -SHRA likely. Wind SE 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...Dye