Bestruns Snow Report

997 FXUS63 KMPX 140733 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 233 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening. - Periods of showers and storms remain in the forecast through the period, especially during the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. - Temperatures this weekend and into next will hover right around the seasonal average for the middle of August. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast packages. A somewhat active weather pattern with chances of showers and storms across portions of the area today and Saturday, with another shot of showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures this weekend will hover right around the seasonal average through the period. .TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Generally zonal flow aloft regime continues to dominate as high pressure aloft spans the Southeast to the Southern Plains. Upper level system over the Canadian Prairies, along with its associated surface low and warm front will advect better moisture across the region with DP temps in to the 60s along and south of the I-94 corridor through the day. Better moisture will exist along the I-90 corridor of southern MN, DP with values reaching 70 degrees. Most of pleasant will be pleasant under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Isolated to scattered showers and weak storms will be possible during the evening and overnight timeframe across the forecast. The greatest threat to activity will be across the southern half of MN, with 20-30% PoPs across the Metro and Central MN, 30-40% PoPs across Southern MN. By Saturday, another piece of weak energy will move west to east across Southern MN and Northern IA. This will promote another shot of low-end chances of showers/storms across the area. On Sunday, drier air quickly filters in with DP temps dropping into the 50s by the afternoon and evening timeframe. High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday top out around 80 degrees. .NEXT WEEK... On Monday, pleasant weather conditions will continue through most of the day with high temperatures in the low 80s. By Monday night into Tuesday, a west to east moving frontal boundary will move across the region. This boundary and the associated moisture that comes with it will increase shower/storm chances across the forecast area. Strong to severe storms and heavy rain are not expected with this activity. Thereafter, northwest flow aloft regime will take shape with periods of shower/storm chances through the end of the work. As of now, nothing looks impressive just some occasional showers and storms each day. Temperatures through the end of next work week will continue to hover around the seasonal average for the middle of August. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 VFR conditions expected through the overnight and morning timeframe with FEW to SCT mid level clouds. Clouds will thicken and lower through the period. Winds through the period will be generally E/SE at 3-6 knots through the morning, becoming 7-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon. Rain chances increase during the late afternoon and evening timeframe. The upper level piece of energy that will move across the region will support shower activity, however an isolated embedded thunderstorm or two will be possible. Confidence in impacts to terminals associated with said activity is focused across SWrn MN including MKT and RWF where PROB30s for MVFR showers. Regardless, MVFR will be possible during the evening and overnight timeframe as BKN to OVC skies lower regards CIGs. KMSP...Quiet and VFR conditions through the overnight and morning timeframe. Winds will increase out of the E/SE during the late morning and afternoon hours with gusts up to 20 knots. Showers will be on the increase across southern MN during the late afternoon and evening. VCSH remains in the forecast as confidence remains low regarding directs impacts to terminals. If MSP received SHRA, MVFR impacts will be possible with lowing of CIGs. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA and MVFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts shifting to W. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LPR AVIATION...LPR