Blue Knob Snow Report

835 FXUS61 KCTP 060627 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 127 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Kept nudging the temps down Sat and up a little Sat night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-long dry spell now over. 2) Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced rain showers beneath upper level low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks- long dry spell now over. Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week. High temps this afternoon will make it into the mid 70s across much of central PA, still 15 to 20 degrees above average. Highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday. The cold front responsible for the rain this morning will slow down or stall near the I95 corridor tonight. A dry slot will keep most locations dry this afternoon into Friday, but a weak wave along the front may trigger another round of showers this evening in the Lower Susq Valley later this afternoon into the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced rain showers beneath upper level low Update... Newest guidance continues to show a cool and blustery day on Sat. We have been constantly been pulling NBM (mean) temp guidance down closer to MOS blend for Sat, and we`ve now done it more so with continued support from many sources. We have also pulled temps up a few degs for Sat night due to the same clouds and also wind which should keep us more-mixed. Previous... Seasonably cooler/breezy pattern to start the first full weekend of November. The passage of closed H5 low followed by mean cyclonic flow favors persistent clouds and periods of lake enhanced rain over the western and central Alleghenies on Saturday. We were keen to manually adjust max temps a few degrees lower on 11/7 to account for the cooler pattern shift which looks to continue into early next week. If the current forecast holds, it will be the first below average daytime high in three weeks! && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Patchy MVFR ceilings (KMDT/KLNS) and localized fog (mainly KIPT, with patchy BR/FG around KMDT/KLNS as well) will persist over eastern Pennsylvania this morning as a cold front slowly presses eastward. A compact shortwave moving over the Great Lakes will reinvigorate convection ahead of the front this morning, mainly along the I-95 corridor, though a few showers may move across KLNS before drier air moves in for the afternoon. While thunder cannot be ruled out at KLNS (10% chance), MUCAPE trending towards 0 J/kg around the onset of these showers precludes thunder mentions at this time. For KMDT, drier air filtering in behind the front will limit shower activity, with PoPs of around 10-20%. Brief MVFR visibilities will be possible with these showers, primarily at KLNS, with restrictions otherwise unlikely. Otherwise, surface winds today will continue to trend westerly behind the front, with cloud bases lowering as the shortwave approaches from the northwest. Ceiling restrictions will be most likely at KBFD/KJST within this common upslope/lake flow setup, primarily around and after 18Z Friday, with lower chances east of the Alleghenies. A few light showers will be possible as well, mainly over KBFD closer to the center of the shortwave. Additionally, brief periods of VFR may occur at KBFD/KJST between roughly 00Z and 06Z Saturday as a dry slot wraps around the center of the shortwave before low-level moisture flows back in. Outlook... Sat-Mon...Breezy with showers and sub-VFR ceilings possible over the NW 1/2 of the airspace. Max gusts 20-25kt. Tue...Mainly VFR with westerly winds gusting up to around 20-25 kts during the daytime. && .CLIMATE... 1. Today marked the end of the following Consecutive Days streaks without measurable rain: 10/17 through 11/4 (19 days): Harrisburg, Williamsport, Altoona, State College 10/18 through 11/4 (18 days): Johnstown 2. Daily record highs for 11/4 and 11/5: Harrisburg 78/1994 | 79/1975 Williamsport 75/2003 | 77/1994 Altoona 77/2003 | 77/2015 Bradford *TIED = 74/2015 | 76/2024 State College 78/2003 | 75/2015 3. The sun will set at 5PM on Saturday 11/7 in State College. This will mark the beginning of a 2 month period during which sunsets will occur before 5PM surrounding the Winter Solstice. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff