Bobcat Ski Center Snow Report

269 FXUS61 KBGM 120547 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 147 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rainfall amounts for Northeast PA to the Southern Tier and Catskills was once again increased for Saturday night. Increased thunderstorm coverage for Sunday afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers move in tonight with locally heavy rainfall. 2) After a return to dry and cooler weather Monday and Tuesday, warmer weather and scattered showers and thunderstorms returns by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm frontal boundary will push toward the region this afternoon and evening. This will result in increasing clouds, and eventually rain showers moving into the area. The majority of the area will likely be rain-free during the daytime on Saturday, but a few showers may sneak in west of I-81 during the afternoon. The most concentrated period of rain showers will be Saturday night/early Sunday morning. PWATs will be around 1.7 inches and coupled with a decent LLJ, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The greatest threat for this will be across Northeast PA-Catskills. While widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, cannot rule out some localized flooding issues late Saturday night. There will likely be a bit of a lull in the rainfall Sunday morning, before a cold front will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hi-res guidance is now showing a fair amount of destabilzation with 1,000-1,500 J/KG of surface CAPE and close to 1,000 J/KG of DCAPE. However, poor lapse rates look to keep the threat for severe thunderstorms more isolated with gusty winds as the main concern. KEY MESSAGE 2... Following the passage of the cold front, cooler air will move into the region, which will bring highs in the 60s to lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday. Would not be surprised if Monday ends up cloudier than forecasted given northwesterly flow. High pressure though will keep conditions dry during this period. Another system may bring some scattered showers and potentially some thunderstorms by the middle of next week, along with warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period for most terminals with exception for ELM where fog is possible. Some high clouds are approaching from the southwest and with the drier air in place today, this may keep ELM from seeing low cloud and fog formation. However, with the good radiational cooling setup with high pressure overhead and light winds, low temperatures there tonight will be very close to or reach the crossover temperature for fog formation. For now, kept a TEMPO in for IFR/LIFR restrictions ahead of the clouds. There is still some uncertainty if fog holds prior to daybreak. Clouds increase tomorrow and winds become southerly as a warm front approaches. Isolated to scattered showers are possible for most terminals from 0Z to the end of the TAF. Showers may move into ELM sooner in the late afternoon. Otherwise rainfall spreads farther north and east with MVFR to Fuel Alt restrictions for the last few hours of the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday Night through Sunday...Restriction possible as a frontal system moves through bringing rain showers to the region. Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG/MWG AVIATION...DK/ES