Campgaw Mountain Snow Report

890 FXUS61 KOKX 040803 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 403 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours around early this morning. A spotty late day shower then can`t be ruled out, mainly from NYC on west. 2) Cooler, drier, and more comfortable weather settles in through Labor Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The region remains sandwiched in between mid and upper level ridging centered over the Southeast and a digging trough across southeast Canada and New England. Shortwave impulse working east in the flow has been instigating some convective activity locally early this morning. Conditions remain modestly unstable despite the early hour, and have already seen a few observed gusts exceed 40-50 mph with a thunderstorm that tracked south through Suffolk Co on Long Island. Bulk of the convection is already offshore as of 8Z, but still can`t rule out a few locally heavy downpours in the notably moisture laden environment, mainly over S CT and eastern LI. The activity is moving progressively, so outside any repeated training or backbuilding, the flash flood threat is low. The downpours have been producing a quick half inch to an inch though, which could result in brief nuisance flooding. Conditions continue to dry out through this morning, which should then persist for most through the day. Another weak wave passes south into tonight, and can`t entirely rule out a few spotty showers late today into this evening, mainly from around NYC on south and west. Otherwise, the muggy conditions persist for one more day, and temperatures remain seasonably warm for early September. Afternoon highs top out in the low to mid 80s, and will feel more like the upper 80s to around 90 with the humidity. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Trough digs into the Northeast as the associated upper low meanders into the Canadian Maritimes over the next couple of days, helping usher in a less humid and cooler regime for the holiday weekend. Drier air advecting south as a Canadian high builds in results is much lower humidity levels. Dew pts fall from the low 70s down into the low 60s by Saturday, and into the 50s for Sunday. This will offer a much less muggy and more comfortable feel to the air this weekend. The cold pool aloft and cyclonic flow could help to instigate some shower activity late Saturday afternoon, especially across S CT, though hi-res CAMs are keeping coverage rather isolated to scattered, and not everyone will see wet weather. More likely for most, a healthy stratocu deck develops by mid afternoon and conditions remain dry. Saturday will be the warmer day of the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Sunday and Labor Day both feature dry conditions and daytime temperatures in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front moves across overnight. Thunderstorms with gusts potentially around 30kt expected to impact some of the terminals mainly before 07-08z. Brief IFR vsbys with these showers/storms. VFR otherwise for the most part, but there is the potential for low stratus or even fog into the early morning at KGON. The winds become more NW for some terminals at 5 to 10 kt overnight, with some outlying terminals going light and variable. Winds generally W-NW near 10 kt for Friday. A few gusts are possible, especially for the more western terminals towards 18z. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible for any SHRA or TSRA overnight. Gusts of 15 to 20 kt currently only included for KTEB and KEWR for Friday afternoon. Amendments remain possible for all city terminals regarding gusts. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night: VFR with light winds. Saturday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through early next week. There is potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts and 5-6ft seas towards the middle to end of next week ahead of and behind a strong cold frontal passage. Rip Currents: A lack of significant wind or swell will lead to a low rip current risk both today and Saturday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JC MARINE...DR