Hidden Valley Resort snow report

421 FXUS61 KPBZ 150633 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 233 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added smoke to the grids for late this afternoon and into tonight to include Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures and heat indices maximize for most Wednesday with major heat risk likely. 2) Wildfire smoke aloft returns to the area for the beginning of the forecast period. 3) Storm chances, along with severe and flooding risks, return into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The ridge will be in place over the eastern CONUS today, but will begin to shift back west. This will keep dry conditions in place. With northwest flow aloft beginning to take shape, this will keep the higher dew points out of the region. Thus the Heat Risk for today will be marginal Heat Advisory values. Values of 100 to 102 are still expected but just confined to the urban areas of the forecast area. The northwest flow will begin to usher in smoke to the region by the afternoon and into the evening. Thursday, smoke concentrations may be higher, challenging continued temperatures above 90F, save regions south of US-22 where major heat risk may linger. This will also correlate to the beginning of the ridge breakdown. KEY MESSAGE 2... The aforementioned smoke that HRRR is picking up on is mostly from wildfires originating in southern Ontario and northern Minnesota. Exact concentrations of smoke will depend on the exact intensity of upstream fires. Models show prolific smoke release given the continued hot/dry conditions. An initial push of smoke today is expected to remain mostly aloft and result in a milky/hazy appearance overhead. The main wave of smoke today is forecast to pass to the south tomorrow, before wrapping back into the more dense smoke advecting down from Ontario Wednesday night. This round of smoke may bring some more near surface smoke that could pose impacts to near surface air- quality into late Wednesday and early Thursday. Continued instances of smoke appear likely into the weekend with little change in mid- level wind direction. KEY MESSAGE 3... As with most ridge breakdowns, there will also come a threat for organized storm formation. Uncertainty with timing and intensity is still now tied mostly to an infringing Pacific low rejoining the flow as a shortwave. Once this does so (over the next 24 hours), it`ll become easier to resolve the timing and location of storms into Friday and Saturday. A faster rejoining of this would lead to a Friday arrival (lower probability), and a slower rejoining would lead to a Saturday arrival (higher probability). If the eastern trough amplitude is towards the higher end, QPF totals may be towards the higher end of the distribution and displaced into the northern Ohio Valley, whereby, a lower trough amplitude would mean perhaps slightly lower QPF potential and displaced into northern Pennsylvania. Machine learning carries generally a 5% to 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point when and where the threat maximizes for now. With LREF 50th percentile DCAPE near 600 to 900, a marginal downburst threat is possible, but with mean 500mb flow of 30kts to 50kts, organized convection is certainly possible. Curved low hodographs will also allude to the potential for discrete or embedded tornado threats. Another thing that will need to be monitored, maybe even more so, is hydrological concerns. LREF 50th percentile PWATS will be >90th percentile, and convection may be boundary parallel as it moves from the northwest to southeast. Model soundings show long, skinny CAPE. There are some particularly high-QPF analogs in similar patterns, and NBM 90th percentile to max QPF shows 2-5" is certainly possible somewhere. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain in place across the forecast area. This will keep dry conditions in place for another TAF period. Expect some haze to develop today along with some smoke but mainly north of I-70. Winds are expected to be out of the southwest up to 10 knots through the day. Some cu is expected at about 6 KFT with some passing cirrus with traces of smoke in it. Overall, VFR forecast is expected with the exception of an instance of fog in the morning. Outlook... High pressure favors VFR through at least Thursday, with only low probabilities for river valley fog near dawn. Due to a dense area of smoke from wildfires in northern Minnesota and western Ontario, it is possible for MVFR visibility restrictions on Thursday. Confidence in these impacts is increasing as upstream airports today feature haze and smoke VIS reductions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ007-008-013>015-020>022-029-031-073-075-077. OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-509. && $$ DISCUSSION...Milcarek/Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger