Kettlebowl snow report

006 FXUS63 KGRB 140712 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 212 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Intense heat and high humidity will continue today. Maximum temperatures this afternoon will reach the middle to upper 90s with heat indices ranging from 95 to 105 degrees. - Showers and storms are possible at times Wednesday evening through this weekend. Predictability of any of these storms becoming severe is low. - Air quality is expected to be impacted by incoming smoke from wildfires across northern Minnesota and southwest Ontario Wednesday through at least Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Dangerous Heat/Humidity...Today is forecast to be the hottest day of the year thus far with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s across the forecast area. The warmest temperatures are expected across eastern WI, including the Fox Valley, as model consensus shows a localized maximum of 29-31C 925mb temperatures over this region. In terms of heat indices most locations are forecast to reach 95F to 105F. Downsloping winds and the sandy soils across northern and far northeast WI may lead to slightly lower dew points (low 60s) this afternoon, however, where dew points are lower air temperatures will tend to be slightly warmer given the lower moisture content in the air. In addition to impacts related just to the heat and humidity, low temperatures this morning are not going to offer much relief, especially across eastern WI where lows will only fall into the low to middle 70s. This could lead to compounding heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations that may have limited access to air conditioning. While Wednesday won`t be quite as hot as today areas south of HWY 29 will still have a 70-90% chance for heat indices over 90 degrees and high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. As the upper ridge breaks down and slides east temperatures do gradually start to moderate Thursday through this weekend. Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9PM tonight. Will need to consider extending the Heat Advisory into Wednesday for counties along and south of HWY 29 as heat indices are forecast in the upper 90s, where dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s. Precipitation Chances...Today is expected to be largely dry across the region, however, CAMs do hint at a weak boundary/area of middle level confluence sinking across Upper Michigan and into northern WI this afternoon and evening. This feature does provided the focus for a low chance (~10%) of an isolated storm or two north of HWY 8. Should a storm develop strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) and marginal 25-30kt deep layer shear could support an isolated strong storm. Again there is only a low end threat for a storm to even develop given the weak forcing and expected capping. Additional isolated showers and storms are possible (10-15%) Wednesday afternoon/evening due to diurnal instability and upper-level divergence in the right entrance region of a 500mb jet. Beginning Thursday and continuing through this weekend upper-level flow is expected to becoming primarily northwesterly. This will allow for subtle short-waves to track across the region and spur on periods of showers and storms. If any of these short-waves track across the region during peak heating a round of strong to possibly severe storms is possible given summer instability levels. However, guidance does not point any specific day or time period as having a greater risk for severe storms. This is in part due to a lack of stronger shear over the region. Smoke Impacts...As winds become more northerly Wednesday smoke from wildfires across northern Minnesota and southwest Ontario will begin to filter over the region. Per the Wisconsin DNR AQI values are forecast to reach the moderate range Wednesday and possibly Thursday. In addition to the impacts on air quality smoke may also reduce visibility at times, especially across north-central WI. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 VFR through the TAF period. Just a few high clouds at times. Weak boundary into far northern WI could spark an isolated shower or storm on Tuesday evening even north of RHI. Very low confidence at this point as most guidance keeps it dry. W-SW winds 5 kt or less rest of tonight, increasing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts 15+ kt at times late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Overall looking very similar to Monday afternoon. Looking ahead, could be dealing with wildfire smoke (both aloft and near surface) Wednesday and Thursday as winds shifting more northerly bring smoke from fires over northern MN and northwest Ontario into our area. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ005-010>013- 018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......JLA