Massanutten Resort Snow Report

450 FXUS61 KRNK 210640 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast, just removing thunder from Wed-Thu for most of the area with a strong wedge and changing from showers to rain. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a front meanders around the area. Turning cooler midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a front meanders around the area. Turning noticeably cooler by Wednesday. Looking at frontal boundary across our area today, with several vorts moving along it aloft and should see a decent shot of showers/storms by late this afternoon and especially tonight into Tuesday. The front drops south Tuesday into Wednesday while we get wedged in. Today will be the last warm day, and depending on how much sunshine we get, could see some stronger storms develop, but again looks isolated. As far as heavy rain/localized flooding, there will be a potential for that, with the 00z HREF probabilities for more than 3" rain in 12 hrs highlighting the Piedmont of NC tonight. Still models/ensembles are blotchy with this coverage and not seeing a need for any flood watches. As we head into Tuesday, will have to watch where the heavy rain occurs today-tonight, and whether we may need flood watches. The bigger story will be the significant cool down with potential to remain stuck in the 50s and 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Cold air advection is expected to persist for multiple days so it may take until the weekend to return to readings near normal. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Look for mainly VFR starting at 06z for most sites, except LWB with VLIFR fog. Will likely have dense fog at LWB til some showers/potential mixing arrive toward 12z. A bit of patchy fog and low clouds in the MVFR range possible elsewhere between 09-13z. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move into the area from the west, reaching KLWB and KBLF between 10Z and 12Z or so, then fading as it moves eastward. Then, models are showing storms redeveloping along the Blue Ridge Monday afternoon and tracking east with time. Expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain within the stronger storms. There is some uncertainty in the time of this round of convection, but mid afternoon looks to be the earliest timing, as of now. Sub-VFR likely in the storms, otherwise VFR. As we head into Monday evening models having cigs dropping fast with more widespread shower coverage into Monday night, so not a good night for flying coming up Monday night. Forecast confidence is moderate, but lower on thunderstorm timing Monday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain chances are high for Tuesday as well, with numerous to widespread coverage. During this time expect periods of sub-VFR conditions and potential heavy rain. Fog at night can also be expected, especially in the mountain valleys. For the latter half of the week, gusty north winds are expected per forecast of strong cyclone developing off the New England Coast. Depending on location of this system will determine if we clear out by Friday but looks like we will, with poor flying weather Wed-Thu. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/WP AVIATION...AS/PM/WP