Bryce Resort Snow Report

514 FXUS61 KRNK 210719 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 319 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted temps down slightly due to cloud cover expected across the region through most of the day today. Aviation update below. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong storms expected today and Wednesday. 2) Temperatures should turn more seasonable by the middle of the week after a frontal passage. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong storms expected today and Wednesday. An upper level shortwave trough looks to push through the Great Lakes region, and an associated cold front will push into the Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon and evening. Both of these mechanisms will provide ample forcing for ascent across the region for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. With the nose of a strong 250mb jet streak pushing into the region from the northwest today, deep layer shear looks to be in the 40-60 knot range through the afternoon and evening areas, especially for areas along and north of I-64 where better shear will be present. Forecast CAM soundings indicate that some low level clockwise turning hodographs look develop; however, with southwesterly flow at the surface today, the amount of clockwise turning looks to remain modest at best. The best shear and hodograph profiles look to arrive with the actual cold front that may not arrive into the forecast area until after 00 UTC. As the cold front arrives, winds look to back out of the southeast, which provides a much more impressive clockwise turning hodograph. The largest tornado threat will likely be accompanied by the approach and passage of the front; however, with timing uncertainty, and possible lack of daytime heating, the threat for any tornado will be dependent on all of these ingredients coming together at once. CAM guidance does have a messy convective evolution this afternoon and evening; however, multicellular clusters, with a supercell or two can`t be ruled out. Some multicellular clusters may have bowing line segments associated with them given the amount of deep layer shear present today. Overall the confidence in tornadoes and hail are low given the uncertainties mentioned above. The most impactful threat expected for today is damaging wind gusts, which will lead to the potential for numerous downed trees and power poles across the area. This will likely inadvertently lead to the possibility for more widespread power outages across the area given the more widespread nature of storms expected today. In terms of evolution, it looks like there could be two rounds of storms today, with early afternoon convection developing across the mountains and pushing east, and then an additional round in the late evening as the cold front pushes into the region. This second round looks to arrive at sunset or later for mountain locations. On Wednesday, the aforementioned front looks to get hung up in a east/west orientation along the VA/NC border providing a focal point for shower/thunderstorm activity primarily south of 460. So far it appears that damaging winds and a tornado or two can`t be ruled out on the eastern side of this frontal boundary in the Piedmonts of VA/NC on Wednesday afternoon. Eventually, this front looks to push south late Wednesday night, and by Thursday, enough dry air advecting into the area looks to end any rain chances for at least one day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures should turn more seasonable by the middle of the week after a frontal passage. Strong summertime front passing through the region tonight will bring a large pattern change to the area starting late Wednesday into Thursday. Behind the passage of the front, upper level troughing looks to settle across the eastern CONUS through much of the work week. This will keep 500mb heights much lower across the region leading to overall cooler temperatures. Surface high pressure coming out of Canada will also lower dewpoints into the 50s and 60s which will make it feel much more comfortable outside during the peak heat of the day. Highs look to only climb into the upper 70s to low 80s across the mountains, and mid to upper 80s across the Piedmont starting Wednesday, and continuing through Saturday before temperatures look to increase again on Sunday of next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances beyond the frontal passage Tuesday night will primarily be relegated to mountain locations, and look to remain isolated, where orographical lift can enhance development during peak heating. While chances look to be minimal on Thursday, they slowly start to increase on Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some MVFR to LIFR CIGs are being observed across the region tonight at BCB and ROA. These restrictions look to linger and expand to other terminals periodically throughout the overnight hours. There are also some lingering showers that have been pushing through the vicinity of BLF, LYH, and LWB tonight; however, they look to miss these terminals. Much of the restrictions that are impacting the area during the overnight hours, looks to lift by the 12-13 UTC timeframe. Predominantly VFR conditions look to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. With a frontal boundary pushing towards the area today, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region, which will lead to brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions if they move in the vicinity of any terminals. These thunderstorms look to continue through the end of the TAF period as the frontal boundary arrives later in the evening between 00-06 UTC. This will provide rain showers and thunderstorms during this period for most terminals. These showers and thunderstorms will have the potential for producing strong and erratic winds, as well as some hail and an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. Winds throughout today look to remain out of the southwest at around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20-25 knots through the afternoon and evening timeframe. Confidence in the above forecast is moderate. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Shower and storm chances persist on Wednesday, keeping likely sub-VFR conditions in place area- wide when impacting a terminal. LWB may be just far enough north to avoid rain, but even so, would likely fog in Tuesday night. Drier conditions move in for Thursday and Friday, with no rain chances outside of DAN, though only isolated in coverage. Better rain chances return for Saturday. Overnight fog will remain possible each night, particularly at LWB. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...EB/JCB