Bryce Resort snow report

547 FXUS61 KRNK 180634 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 234 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Chance of rain likely later in the week with cold front passage. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. The warming trend will continue until a cold front arrives Wednesday to briefly bring cooler temperatures and the start of a wet trend for the region. The center of a surface high pressure system over Bermuda will nudge a little eastward and permit an approaching cold front to reach our area. The cold front`s arrival will likely be as early as Wednesday. The front will struggle to pass southward but will be forced back northward as a warm front due to the presence of a developing low in south- central CONUS. The meandering behavior of the front suggests a multi-day precipitation trend where pretty much the entire region will get daily chances of rain. This is excellent news in relation to the drought conditions we have been going through this Spring. Flood concerns are on the lower end as it would take several inches in an hour to lead to any flash flooding. In addition, the rainfall estimates for Wednesday and Thursday combined range between 0.5-1.0 inches at best. PWATs are projected to average around 1-1.5" from Wednesday onward so some storms that develop may have relatively heavy rainfall rates. The severe weather threat looks to be low for Wednesday and Thursday. CAPE, no doubt, will be plentiful with the warm and moist conditions but the wind shear will be better to the north with bulk shear of only about 25 knots over southwest VA. Lapse rates are also underwhelming given the presence of warmer air aloft due to a 850mb surface high off the Atlantic. Still, the shear may be enough to support some organized multicells and modeled skew-Ts suggest inverted V soundings so the threat of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. As a side note, the cold front will have a large surface high pressure system behind it, centered over the Great Lakes as it passes to our north. It will briefly wedge into our mountains and provide a break in the warm temperatures with highs in the 60s and lower 70s by Friday. The wedge and temperature drop does not last since the warm front then moves north to return high temperatures back to the 70s to lower 80s. Dew points and PWATs take a short dip as well but recover by the weekend. The warm front will be back to our north by the weekend and with reinforced warm and moist temperatures, the chances of daily rainfall may continue into early next week. Model guidance also hints at another surface low moving northeast across the Midwest and sending another front through by this weekend. Confidence is highest for rain on Wednesday and Thursday and any rain chances following will be monitored in future forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Aside from possible reduced VSBY/cig at KLWB from any fog that forms, expect VFR conditions through the period. Some daytime cu near 5-6 kft could form at the mountain sites otherwise some cirrus is possible. Daytime winds mainly south to SW at 10kts or less then decreasing back by this evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the beginning of the week outside of any river valley fog that may develop. This river valley fog may lead to some brief periods of restrictions due to lowering VSBYs at LWB. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. This may lead to sub-VFR conditions through the end of the work week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Monday, May 18, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 94 in 1962 69 in 1996 92 Lynchburg 93 in 1911 68 in 1894 92 Danville 93 in 1974 69 in 2015 94 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 2015 86 Blacksburg 88 in 1911 61 in 2018 89 Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 93 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 94 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...AB CLIMATE...RCS