Mount Kato Ski Area Snow Report

009 FXUS63 KMPX 150746 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 246 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to widely numerous showers and embedded storms this afternoon and evening. Dangerous lightning and brief heavy rain are the main impacts. - Temperatures this weekend and into next will hover right around the seasonal average for the middle of August. - Next round of showers and storms will be on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast packages. A somewhat active weather pattern with chances of showers and storms across portions of the area today, with another shot of showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures this weekend will hover right around the seasonal average through the period. .TODAY AND SUNDAY... For today, stratus/low clouds will linger through the majority of the day, keeping temperatures relatively cool for mid August standards. Deep, rich moisture will continue to advect in across the forecast area under S/SWrly low level flow. Global ensembles and their corresponding AI ensemble suites show PWat anomaly values of 150-200 percent of normal with values about 2 inches. This anomalous amounts of moisture should allow the environment to be cap-free. Looking aloft in the mid levels, a shortwave disturbance will approach the region from the west, along with cold front at the surface. The question at hand, will we see the low level stratus dissipate to allow for sufficient warming during the afternoon hours? That said, even with broken to overcast skies through the day, scattered to potentially numerous showers will be likely, hence the increase in PoPs within our gridded forecast. Embedded heavier rain and storms will be possible given the moisture moisture profile and meager but sufficient forcing in place. With weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates in place, the probability of severe weather remains low. After FROPA Saturday evening, much drier air will infiltrate the area from the northwest with DP temps dropping back into the upper 50s Sunday afternoon. That said, Sunday looks to be quite pleasant with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with decreasing cloud coverage through the day. .NEXT WEEK... On Monday, pleasant weather conditions will continue through most of the day with high temperatures in the low 80s and DP temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. For Tuesday, deepening upper level low over Ontario and Hudson Bay will promote increased S/SWrly low level flow with DP temperatures increasing back into the 60s. This coupled with increasing energy aloft will lead to another round of showers and storms on Tuesday. Latest ensemble guidance and guidance from our colleagues at the Weather Prediction Center paint a corridor of 1-2" of rain across southern MN. Being a handful days out, some of the finer details will need to get ironed out. Temperatures through the remainder of the period will hang out in the upper 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions continue through the overnight with cigs around 1-3 kft, with areas below 1 kft. This thick layer of low stratus will continue through the morning, with improvement during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds generally out of the SE at 7-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots will persist through the period with wind direction becoming S to SW during the afternoon and evening. Another round of showers and isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening, confidence is low regarding storm potential so no mention of TS. PROB30 for -SHRA has been added during the late afternoon and evening timeframe. KMSP...MVFR to IFR cigs prevail through the mid morning hours with improvements by afternoon. Another round of showers will be possible late afternoon and evening timeframe. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10kts. MON...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LPR AVIATION...LPR