Bestruns Snow Report

930 FXUS63 KMPX 010812 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Following yesterday`s warm temperatures, a cold front will bring more seasonable highs for the first day of October through this weekend. - Other than some isolated showers Saturday, much of the forecast period looks dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Current satellite imagery as of 2:00am shows large area of clouds associated with an upper level system over the Central Plains. The associated mid to upper level forcing remains well to our south, moving west to east across NE and IA, where showers and storms are ongoing. The northern extent of this shower/storm activity will move west to east across IA through the morning hours. Far southern MN, areas like Fairmont to Albert Lea could see light to moderate rain showers through the morning. Meanwhile, current surface analysis shows a frontal boundary extending SW to NE across eastern SD and into northern MN. Ahead of this boundary, areas of dense fog developed across western WI where a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 7:00am. This boundary will continue pushing SE through the day. A more seasonable and drier airmass will settle in across the forecast in it`s wake. Current NBM guidance paints the area with dew point temps dropping into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon and evening. This coupled with high temperatures in the low to middle 60s will make it feel like Fall. With skies slowly becoming clear during the evening and overnight timeframe, temperatures will respond with Friday morning lows dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s across the forecast area (low to middle 40s across the metro). Surface high pressure will be locked in over the region on Friday, Fall-like conditions will continue. High temperatures will be 3-7 degrees below the seasonal average for the beginning of October, topping out in the low 60s. By Saturday, the next shortwave trough will move west to east across southern Canada. A tongue of mid to upper level moisture will extend south along an associated surface boundary that will move west to east across the region. A low-end chance (10-30%) of showers will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Nonetheless, expect scattered to broken clouds on Saturday with high temperatures back to around or slightly above the seasonal average (mid to upper 60s). On Sunday, expect another noticeable drop in dew point temperatures, dropping back into the upper 30s with high temperatures in the low to middle 60s. .NEXT WEEK... On Monday, expect another cool, Fall-like morning as you head out the door. Morning low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s (low 40s for metro and western MN). Quiet and fair weather conditions will be the theme through the remainder of the forecast period. Strong upper level ridge will dominate the upper flow pattern over western CONUS. This will promote predominately zonal flow across the region. Temperatures starting on Tuesday will become slightly above the seasonal average with generally dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 The main impacts for the 06z period will be related to fog and mist primarily for STC/MSP/RNH/EAU. There will be intermittent impacts up to LIFR, with prevailing conditions expected to vary between IFR/MVFR. After 12z fog should be begin to clear, at which point we should return to VFR by 14-15z for all locations and remain VFR for the remainder of the period. Winds will increase to 10-12G20kts from 300-350after 12z, with gusts dropping off after 00z. KMSP...While we have yet to drop below 6sm, periods of BR are expected to bring us to MVFR at times through 12z, after which points we should be VFR for the rest of the period. The denser fog will remain north/east of the terminal. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts. SUN...VFR Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Chisago. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...LPR AVIATION...TDH