Bestruns Snow Report

736 FXUS63 KMPX 200757 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening along a passing cold front. A few severe thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty winds. - Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather through the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast packages. Next chance for showers and storms will be this afternoon and evening, with pleasant conditions returning for the weekend. Temperatures will hover right around the seasonal average through the weekend, becoming slightly above average early next week. .THURSDAY... The next upper level piece of energy embedded within the northwest flow aloft will drop southeast out of the Canadian Prairies this morning, before moving across ND/MN/WI. In response to this increase in upper level energy, corresponding surface low will develop. Winds will turn back to the SW this morning, increasing low level moisture advection. With sufficient moisture and forcing in place, isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop across northern and central MN. Not all locations will see rain, the focus for this morning`s activity will be across northern portions of the CWA from Alexandria to Mille Lacs. This morning`s scattered to broken clouds will gradually clear out through the day, allowing for instability to build. By this afternoon and evening, the focus will be the associated cold front as it drops southeast across MN. Scattered showers and storms will develop along this boundary, within a modestly but sufficient environment. With 1000-1500 J/kg, 6.5C/km mid-level lapse rates, and 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, an isolated strong to severe storm or two will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening, with strong winds and hail being the primary hazards. .THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... Thereafter, surface high pressure will settle in out of Canada under northwesterly flow aloft. This has quiet and pleasant weather conditions written all over it. That`s what we can expect heading into the Friday and Saturday timeframe. Afternoon dew points in the middle to upper 50s and high temperatures around 80 degrees will lead to a great start to the weekend. On Sunday, another piece of energy will eject out of the Northern Rockies towards the Midwest. Model guidance continues to show this system and the associated moisture moving east-southeast across SD, IA, and southern MN on Sunday. That said, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across southwestern and southern MN Sunday afternoon and evening. By early next week, global deterministic models and their associated ensemble suites show a stronger and deeper upper level system diving southeast out of Canada and towards the Great Lakes Region. With there still being a degree of uncertainty within run-to-run model guidance, the finer details will need to be ironed out in the coming days. That said, low-end chances of showers and storms return to the forecast during the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the overnight and morning hours. The next upper level piece of energy will dive southeast out of NE ND and into NW MN through the overnight and early morning hours. This feature will promote ISO to SCT -SHRA across northern MN. We will continue with PROB30 at KAXN for -SHRA by 11z and 13z for KSTC. By Thursday afternoon, a cold front will drop south-southeast across MN. ISO TSRA will be possible along the advancing front during the late afternoon and evening hours. There still remains a degree of uncertainty within CAMs regarding timing and placement. That said, kept precip and TS mention out of TAFs. By 12z and 18z TAF issuance, we should have a better grasp and better confidence regarding TS chances for terminals. KMSP...There still remains a degree of uncertainty with high res guidance regarding tomorrow afternoons TS potential. At this moment, probabilities and confidence remain low, so no mention in this TAF issuance. That said, FROPA will still happen between 23z to 3z, which is when convection could occur. Given this uncertainty, continued to maintain a dry TAF for MSP. By 12z and 18z TAF issuance, we should have a better grasp and better confidence regarding TS chances, timing, and placement. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LPR AVIATION...LPR