Mt. Shasta Ski Park Snow Report

730 FXUS66 KMFR 190552 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1052 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2026 ...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs... .KEY MESSAGES... * Low impact weather expected this weekend and through much of next week. * Cooler than normal temperatures continue today, returning to seasonable values this weekend and through next week. High temperatures peak around 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday. * Dry conditions expected through at least Thursday next week. Next chance for precipitation possible next weekend (9/25-9/27). && .DISCUSSION... An upper level low remains situated over south eastern Oregon near the Idaho border this afternoon with some cumulus build ups over Lake and Klamath County. Eventually, we should see that low shifting towards the east through the evening. The coast will remain socked in with low clouds and some fog, although areas to the east will remain clear overnight. With high pressure starting to build tonight, we`ll begin a gradual warming trend this weekend with highs peaking in the lower 90`s here in Medford on Sunday. This will be just a few degrees warmer than normal for this time of year in the middle of September. The upper level pattern appears progressive with a closed low moving into California by Sunday night with west to east 500 mb heights and zonal flow in Oregon. Quiet weather will likely persist into early next week under this pattern before we see troughing in the Gulf of Alaska around the Thursday timeframe. ECMWF ensemble members are starting to show a cold front and narrow band of precipitation off our coast around Thursday before this front could move inland. The NBM has a 10% chance of precipitation Friday as the trough in the gulf moves inland. This won`t be a very wet event even if it does rain as members are only bringing about 0.5 inches of rain into areas of western Oregon. Overall, pretty quiet weather continues through the next 7 days as the extreme forecast index(EFI) doesn`t show anything noteworthy over southern Oregon or northern California. -Smith && .AVIATION...19/06Z TAFs...MVFR to IFR levels persist along the Oregon coast under marine stratus. Periods of LIFR levels are possible along the coast and MVFR ceilings may build in the Umpqua Valley early Saturday morning. Confidence in these developments are moderate, but have been included in the TAFs to reflect the possible timing. The Umpqua Valley would clear out through Saturday morning. Marine stratus looks to remain over North Bend through the TAF period, with some clearing possible along the coast south of Cape Blanco. Other inland areas will remain at VFR levels under clear skies and with normal diurnal breezes. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, September 18, 2026...Light northerly winds and low seas will persist through Saturday morning. Gusty north winds return Saturday afternoon with steep seas likely developing south of Cape Blanco by late Saturday evening, possibly reaching as far north as Coos Bay or Reedsport by Sunday afternoon. North winds and wind driven seas are likely to build to a peak Monday, and remain near that level on Tuesday, with isolated gales possible south of Cape Blanco. Conditions look to improve on Thursday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$