Skyline Ski Area snow report

959 FXUS61 KRNK 140559 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 159 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence for significant heat Wednesday through the weekend. Increasing confidence in daily showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday. Aviation updated. && 1) Significant heat returns Wednesday through the weekend, however we look to stay below heat advisory or warning criteria. 2) Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return for Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant heat returns Wednesday through the weekend, however we look to stay below heat advisory or warning criteria. Currently a high pressure ridge covered almost the entire CONUS, and was centered over the Midwest and northern Plains. This feature gradually builds east this week, with some of the highest associated heights settling over the forecast area Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, digging short wave energy over eastern Canada and New England will begin to carve out troughing as far south as the Carolinas. As mid level ridging remains centered overhead, heat and humidity will become a concern once again. During this time NAEFS indicates temperature anomalies between 2 and 3 standard deviations above normal. Most of the heat will be concentrated between 700mb to the surface. Surface temperatures look to be highest in urban areas as well as locations east of the Blue Ridge. Expect highs there in the 90s each day, with heat indices thankfully staying around 99 to 101F degrees at the worst. For the mountains, upper 80s to mid 90s are more likely. It is possible developing cloud cover from afternoon showers and storms could keep temperatures a bit lower than forecast beginning Friday. Even so, remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return for Friday into early next week. As mentioned above, mid level troughing begins to creep back into our region towards the end of the work week. Friday into the weekend, a cold front will sink south into the area, and will help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. We will likely see instability each day, leading to concerns for damaging winds and flash flooding. NCEP`s medium range AI models indicate Friday and Saturday in particular may have stronger storms. The cold front looks to push through the forecast area sometime Monday, so that day could have periods of rain too. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The northern half of the forecast area is almost completely cloud free, and dense fog has already started to form in river channels and other valleys. LWB has the highest chance for LIFR/IFR conditions, while BLF, ROA, BCB, and DAN are more likely to see MVFR fog. The southern half of the forecast area is covered in broken to overcast ceilings ranging from 2 to 9 kft. Currently the only TAF site impacted by the cloud cover is DAN, and these clouds should gradually shift south through the overnight hours, allowing for possible MVFR fog at DAN towards morning. Fog and cloud cover clear out by 13-15z, with clear to mostly clear skies at all terminals and VFR flight conditions through the end of the TAF period. Light and variable to calm winds this morning will transition to easterly at all TAF sites, with speeds less than 5 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Friday through Monday, bringing some gusty winds and heavy rainfall as well as periods of MVFR or lower conditions. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will also be possible each morning. Winds will be variable in direction Wednesday through Friday. A west wind with speeds between 6 and 12 kts develops Saturday and Sunday, with gusts to 20 kts or so. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH