Tuxedo Ridge Snow Report

812 FXUS61 KOKX 140841 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 441 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably warm and humid today, followed by a cold front this evening bringing lower humidity and more seasonable conditions to end the week. 2) A frontal system associated with low pressure tracking to the west and north brings showers Thursday night into Friday, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm or two Friday afternoon and early in the evening. No impacts are anticipated with regard to rainfall. 3) Strong winds are possible behind a cold front Friday night into Saturday morning, ushering in the coolest air mass of the season thus far this weekend. It remains too soon to determine impacts from strong winds during late Friday and the first half of Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Look for warm and humid conditions today, with a SW flow becoming W as a cold front approaches. Highs today will range primarily in the middle 70s right along the immediate coast, to upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere. The cold front swings through from W to E during the afternoon and early evening. A few light showers may develop, but most locations should manage to remain primarily dry despite the cold frontal passage. Behind the front will come noticeably less humid and cooler air. This will return temperatures closer to normal for this time of year into Thursday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The next frontal system will approach Thursday night into Friday morning. This will bring the next chance of any meaningful rain late Thursday night into the day Friday. The first batch of rain should be primarily light and will be associated with a warm front. The warm front is progged to lifting further north towards the afternoon, thus a break in the rain is expected for a few hours. A cold front then is expected to follow. The cold front is likely to swing through later in the day or by early evening. This may bring with it some heavier showers along with the slight chance of a few thunderstorms. The consensus on forecasted rainfall amounts looks to be on the order of a half inch. Locally higher amounts of up to one inch cannot be completely ruled out if any convective activity can outperform. The winds will increase right ahead and along the cold front late in the day out of the west, then quickly shift NW for the evening bringing any rain quickly to an end. .KEY MESSAGE 3... As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds immediately behind the front which may last right into Saturday morning. The longevity of any stronger gusts remains uncertain at this time, with gusts to around 40-45 mph or thereabouts a strong possibility. Subsequent updates may need to determine if any wind headlines will be necessary. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Some temperature moderation is likely towards later in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering close to 60 with lighter winds. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR as a cold front approaches and then moves through this evening. A general SW flow will become W today and increase to around or just over 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt from late morning into the afternoon. Winds shift NW-N tonight 10 kt or less after fropa. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected. A few sprinkles or light showers may occur late today and early this evening with fropa but should not impact flight category. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late tonight and Thursday: VFR. Thursday night: Showers move in late with MVFR or lower cond. Friday: Showers. IFR cond likely, improving to MVFR in the afternoon from the NYC metros north/west. SW winds G20-25kt. Friday night: Showers and possibly a tstm in the evening with mainly MVFR cond, then VFR. Cold fropa with W-NW winds G25-35kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-35 kt. Saturday night: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt early. Sunday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft advisories end from the central ocean to the eastern ocean through the mid morning to about noon. A period of marginal small craft conditions may develop across portions of the waters tonight behind a cold front on a northwest flow, at this time it is expected that most zones will remain below small craft thresholds. The pressure gradient relaxes some into Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon. The winds become SW just ahead of a cold front later in the day Friday with high end small craft conditions, then immediately behind the cold front the flow goes NW and should result in gales developing across all waters Friday night into the first half of Saturday. By Saturday afternoon and evening gales will have given way to small crafts in all likelihood. Sub advisory conditions should return by Sunday with winds decreasing below small craft thresholds. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 14: KEWR: 85/1975 KBDR: 80/1990 KNYC: 84/1920 KLGA: 82/1975 KJFK: 82/1990 KISP: 81/1990 && .EQUIPMENT... The NOAA Weather Radio WXM-80 Riverhead transmitter at a frequency of 162.475 MHZ remains down until further notice. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ353. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...JE