Tuxedo Ridge Snow Report

813 FXUS61 KOKX 060452 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1152 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain are expected tonight through Friday. Heaviest rain will be during the day Friday. Locally heavy downpours could lead to nuisance type flooding, especially across Long Island and southern Connecticut. 2) Drier and cooler air returns this weekend and early next week, but clouds and chance for showers persist at times. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An unseasonably mild and humid air mass in place sets the stage for the return of rain to the region after a couple of weeks of dry conditions. A cold front from the west approaches into tonight, with a long, deep SW fetch ahead of it ushering in an anomalously moist air mass for this time of year. The front slows and stalls nearby or just to the east on Friday. As it does so, waves of low pressure ride along the boundary. The region appears to get into good upper level divergence with two favorable upper jet features and a tightening thermal gradient and strengthening LLJ expected early Friday morning. Putting this together, a broken band of rain should develop and drift east tonight across the forecast area, slowing and intensifying into Friday AM from the metro and east. Can`t rule some embedded thunderstorm activity as the wave passes on Friday either. The front slows Friday but eventually is able to shift east of the region by Friday night. This should allow the best forcing, lift, and highest rainfall to set up across the eastern third of the region. Amounts fall sharply going west of the primary rain band, with most areas outside of convective maxima remaining at or under an inch total, in some cases considerably less. Guidance is in good general agreement that 1 to 3 inches is likely to fall under where this band sets up, with opportunity for locally higher amounts toward 4 or 5 inches if some of the latest hi-res CAMs verify. Latest thinking continues to place this axis across central/eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut where WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall outlined. Despite these values, the relatively longer duration of the rain coupled with potential localized peak rainfall rates around an inch/hour does not signal an overly high flood threat. So while localized flash flooding can`t be ruled out, the overall risk is low. More likely is typical ponding and nuisance type flooding, especially in areas with clogged storm drains/poor drainage. Should higher amounts be realized, more flashy creeks and streams may briefly exceed their banks but the threat for more significant riverine flooding is also low. The steadiest of the rain gradually shifts east through the day Friday, with metro NYC likely dry by mid to late afternoon, and the entire area by late Friday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind the main fropa Friday night, a series or weak cold fronts and surface troughs pivot through this weekend as an upper level low spins over the Northeast. Cloud cover persists through Saturday and the closed low may also help to instigate scattered showers as it pivots through, especially across interior S CT and the LoHud Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Any additional QPF would be light. Despite the cooler air mass, temperatures still remain a few degrees above normal for early November, with afternoon highs this weekend in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak cold front approaches from the west overnight and will very slowly work across the area on Friday. The front likely moves offshore Friday night. Widespread IFR conditions will overspread the remainder of the area overnight along with multiple rounds of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop around or shortly after 12Z Friday. KSWF will be on the NW periphery of the rain on Friday, likely escaping the lower conditions. As the cold front passes through the area Friday afternoon/evening, conditions are forecast to gradually improve. It is looking more likely for a return to VFR for NYC terminals before 00z Saturday. Winds will generally be S-SSW at 10 kt or less overnight with gusts to around 20kt lingering at the eastern terminals, especially at KISP. Winds may even become light and variable N and W of NYC terminals. The cold frontal passage from west to east on Friday will be slow to occur and latest guidance has trended a bit slower. It now looks like the NYC terminals will not switch around to a westerly component until the early afternoon hours, and as late as around 03Z Saturday at KGON. Wind shifts are likely to vary by 1-2 hours. Even with the wind shift the flow will be weak and may even vary between SW to NW. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for changing flight categories overnight into Friday. Timing of wind shift on Friday may be off by 1-3 hours and even then it could be light and variable behind the front. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday Night: VFR at all terminals except for KGON, which could remain sub-VFR for most of the night. There is also concern that with light winds and residual low- level moisture, there could some patchy IFR/MVFR elsewhere. Saturday: Showers possible with MVFR, mainly in the afternoon and first half of Saturday night. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt Saturday night. Sunday-Monday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt. && .MARINE... A long S-SW fetch ahead of an approaching cold front remains in place into tonight. This will lead to small craft conditions with seas around 5 ft and gusts to 25 kt on the ocean waters through at least this evening and may linger into a portion of Friday east of Moriches Inlet. Conditions briefly relax Friday afternoon through much of Saturday, before winds and seas begin to increase late Saturday, with small craft conditions returning on the ocean by early Sunday morning. Marginal small craft conditions develop for the non ocean waters late Saturday night into Sunday. Seas near 5 ft may linger on the ocean into early next week with small craft gusts likely on most of the non-ocean waters as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: November 5: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 78/1961 KLGA: 75/2022 KJFK: 75/1975 KISP: 74/2022 Record High Minimum Temperatures: November 5: KEWR: 61/2022 KBDR: 59/1961 KNYC: 64/2022 KLGA: 63/2022 KJFK: 60/2022 KISP: 62/2022 November 6: KEWR: 66/2022 KBDR: 62/2024 KNYC: 66/2022 KLGA: 65/2024 KJFK: 64/2022 KISP: 65/2022 Record Precipitation: November 6: KEWR: 2.12/1911 KBDR: 0.54/2018 KNYC: 1.47/1911 KLGA: 0.96/1963 KJFK: 1.42/1963 KISP: 0.71/1963 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...DW MARINE...DR