Alta Sierra At Shirley Meadows snow report

611 FXUS65 KVEF 050742 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1242 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions, breezy afternoons, and gradually warming temperatures continue through next week. * Monsoonal pattern to potentially set up late next week bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Next Weekend. The weak wave associated with the remnants of Douglas will continue to lift north through the region tonight and Sunday. So far, the only notable thing associated with this feature is increased moisture in parts of the Mojave Desert and mid-to-high level clouds areawide. Precipitation has been very limited and winds have been unresponsive. Despite some hi-res models showing isolated shower activity with this disturbance, will continue with the dry forecast. If anything were to develop and result in very light rain and gusty winds, it would be in Lincoln County and northern Inyo County as diurnal heating may be able to get something to happen. Otherwise, no changes to the previous forecast with dry conditions expected through the week. Ridging will reestablish itself over the region early in the week which will bring warming temperatures, peaking Thursday and/or Friday. By Wednesday, widespread Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) with isolated areas of Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) are expected. Major HeatRisk then spread into more valley locations for Thursday and Friday. Las Vegas, NV has a 70%-80% chance of officially hitting 110F for the first time this year Thursday. Very dry conditions will persist through the work week with breezy afternoons at times, which could increase fire danger at times. Longer range ensembles continue to advertise a pattern that would be supportive of a more active weather pattern next weekend into next week as high pressure settles in over the 4-corners region. This would be a typical set up for monsoonal moisture to advent north and result in increased shower and thunderstorm chances. Models have been rather consistent in showing this increase beginning as early as Saturday or Sunday with PWATs between 1.00" - 1.25" moving into southern regions of the forecast area that would continue to spread north into next week. The models are also showing some increased instability and we have gone ahead and introduced some slight precipitation chances for portions of Mohave County. While this remains far out in the forecast period and things could change, it is worth noting that this general pattern and timing has been consistent for numerous model runs, which gives at least some confidence that it`s not just ensembles leaning on climatology. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light southwest winds will persist overnight and well into Sunday morning, with speeds generally remaining less than 8 knots. A period of light southeast winds is expected early in the afternoon, but winds are expected to turn southerly earlier Sunday than today, likely between 21Z and 23Z. Light southwest winds return Sunday night. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with SCT to at times BKN high clouds with bases remaining AOA 20kft AGL. Temperatures exceeding 100F are expected between 20Z and 03Z, with a peak near 104F around 00Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will decrease overnight across the region before south to southeast winds develop by late morning on Sunday in most locations. Afternoon gusts of 12 to 25 knots are likely. High clouds will continue to increase from the south overnight, with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds possible over southern portions of the CWA. VFR conditions will prevail, but slantwise visibility reductions due to wildfire smoke are possible at times across the southern Great Basin and western Mojave Desert near KDAG. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter