Bobcat Ski Center Snow Report

451 FXUS61 KBGM 140533 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 133 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Much quieter weather is expected today and Saturday as high pressure settles in. Ahead of the stronger portion of the high pressure system, an upper level disturbance passing through may bring a few isolated showers this afternoon. 2) A low pressure system will bring rain showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. High pressure will follow, bringing quiet weather through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A very much welcomed period of high pressure and quiet weather is in store for the region over the next 2 days. An upper level ridge over the southern US will build to the north and allow a surface high to slide into the area from the WNW. Ahead of the arrival of the stronger portion of this high, an upper level disturbance will ripple through the area and allow for some isolated showers with a rumble of thunder possible across portions of the area along and east of I-81 this afternoon. The full force of high pressure will settle in during the evening and sit overhead through Saturday. NNW flow from this pattern will keep temperatures near normal with partly to mostly clear skies across the region. Temps Friday night will be the coolest we have seen in a while, with most seeing lows in the low to mid 50s. A few 40s will be possible across N Oneida county and in the Catskills. KEY MESSAGE 2... On Sunday, the ridge will break down as an upper level trough moves into the area from the Great Lakes. A surface low will develop and track over the area, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region Sunday morning into the overnight hours. The current forecasted track of the storm keeps much of the instability to our south while 0-6km bulk shear associated with the low pressure system is in the 35-45kt range. With the lack of instability, severe storms are not expected at this time. PWATs will increase to around 2in, pointing to a chance for heavy rain fall, especially where we might be able to get some convection going, that could lead to isolated flash flooding. This would be dependent on where the heaviest rain fell as portions of the area are more susceptible to flash flooding given the multiple rounds of rain we have seen over portions of the area during the past week. We will have to monitor the evolution of this system as a track of the low a little farther to the north will allow surface based CAPE in the 2000-3000 j/kg range to work its way in to the region. These numbers combined with the aforementioned shear values would allow for widespread severe weather chances across the region. A more northerly track would also bring better heavy rain chances and thus better chances for flash flooding. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is currently in place across the CWA for Sunday with a Slight risk just to our south. This slight could move north if the track of the low also moves north. Behind this strong low pressure system, another ridge with associated surface high will build into the area by Tuesday morning. This high pressure system should control the weather pattern through mid-week. Another trough moving in from the Great Lakes will be possible to close out the work week. Temperatures next week will be around normal to slightly below normal given the mostly consistent WNW flow pushing a Canadian airmass into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR through the TAF period. However, still a likelihood for a few hours of fog with restrictions at KELM and perhaps KITH. Elsewhere trends are indicating a lesser chance for fog. May need to introduce prob30 for KSYR and KRME for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Coverage of brief activity looks isolated at this time. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Areas of low clouds or fog and associated restrictions possible early morning. Sunday...Restrictions likely with showers. Some thunderstorms possible in the afternoon/evening hours. Monday...Chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms, restrictions possible. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog and/or low cloud restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...MWG