Mt. Shasta Ski Park Snow Report

168 FXUS66 KMFR 100540 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 940 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...Aviation Discussion Updated... .KEY MESSAGES... * Aside from rain today, overall low impact forecast through at least Thursday night. * Weakening front today brings another round of light to moderate precipitation from Cascades/Shasta Valley westward (high snow levels) along with gusty south to southwest winds. * The southern end of a front brushes the coast north of Cape Blanco on Tuesday, otherwise dry weather with warmer afternoons (10-15 degrees above normal) Tuesday through Thursday. * A much stronger storm system, including rain, high mountain snow, gusty winds, and dangerously high surf, is likely around Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Radar imagery currently shows a wide swath of precipitation lying over almost the whole area along and west of the Cascades. The front is expected to wash out as it crosses the Cascades, so lesser chances and amounts are forecast there, but some rain may sneak over and wet the ground in places. As the front passes, showers are expected through the evening and into tonight, but most precipitation will come to an end by 3 or 4 AM. With showers dissipating overnight and mid to high level clouds clearing, the fresh rainfall and clearer skies could easily result in fog for many of the area valleys around sunrise and through much of the morning. This could impact the morning commute for most of the more heavily traveled areas. Be aware of the potential for low visibility conditions, give extra time for commuting, and remember to take it slow and easy with headlights on if encountering fog. Dry and warm conditions return for Tuesday through at least Thursday as high pressure amplifies over the Intermountain West and a trough deepens over the eastern Pacific. This is a pattern we`ve continued to see for the past few weeks, despite longer range guidance continuing to showing the potential for a more persistent active/cooler pattern. Lows will be seasonably cold, but high temperatures will hover around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, resulting in mid 60s for the East Side/upper 60s maybe low 70s for the West Side. Much like the last few weeks, another repeat of splitting flow is expected Thursday. As the offshore trough continues to deepen, the upper level energy splits. The southern branch moves inland into California and the northern branch gets directed at the Vancouver Island/Seattle region. This has left our area on the southern fringe of weakening fronts with either little to no precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures and Thursday is no exception. Guidance continues to show a pattern change for the weekend as the southern energy undercuts the ridge and potentially allows a much deeper low from the northwest to move into the region. Models have had quite the difficulty in timing with this pattern change, which gives lower confidence in the faster EC solutions and the overall timing. The ECMWF remains on the faster side of the cluster of solutions with moderate to heavy rain moving into the west side during Friday. Meanwhile, the GFS happens to be on the slow side with moderate to heavy rain holding off at the coast until Saturday and not making much inland progress until Saturday night. Precipitation associated with frontal passage may be limited to the coast, though around 10-15% of members extend it into inland portions of the West Side. Very few of the ensemble members are faster than the ECMWF or slower than the GFS. Snow levels are forecast to be around 7000 feet before falling to around 5000-5500 ft Saturday, then potentially down to 4000-5000 ft Sunday into Monday. We`ll also need to monitor the potential for strong winds in the Friday-Saturday time frame as the deterministic models are hinting at a deepening surface low just offshore. Stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION...09/06Z TAFs...Showers are tapering off tonight. IFR/MVFR will persist along the coast overnight into Tuesday. Inland, areas of MVFR in valleys west of the Cascades, will lower to LIFR/IFR late tonight in fog as skies partially clear. Of note, as light showers gradually diminish, fog and ceilings may fluctuate, before becoming more widespread beginning around 10-14z in west side valleys late tonight and early Tuesday morning. East of the Cascades, areas of IFR/LIFR in fog are expected to develop as well late tonight and Thursday morning. Improvement to VFR is expected for inland locations around 17-20Z. Meanwhile, along the coast, expect continued areas of IFR and MVFR conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening, with only partial or brief clearing. && .MARINE...Updated 300 PM PST Monday, November 9, 2026...Gusty south winds will impact the waters into this evening with gale gusts north of Cape Blanco resulting in steep to very steep seas. South winds briefly diminish later tonight, but steep seas and advisory strength south winds are likely through Thursday as additional systems pass through the region. An even stronger front will move in Thursday night into Friday bringing gale force (possibly storm) winds and steep to very steep seas. Yet another major long-period swell will move into the waters following this front late Friday. It is expected to peak Saturday with wave heights in the coastal waters forecast to reach 25 feet (maybe higher) with a period of 18 seconds. Mariners should keep a close eye on the forecasts as this especially impactful system heads our way. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1200 PM PST Monday, November 9, 2026... Wave model guidance is depicting a major, long period swell arriving with the expected storm system this weekend. Originating from a storm only now beginning to spin up along the western Aleutians, the swell is forecast to arrive along the Oregon coast late Friday and peak Saturday morning. Peak wave heights are forecast to be around 25 feet, perhaps higher, at 18 second period, which translates to breaking surf heights of 30 to 35 feet. This would result in exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this event approaches. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$