Mt. Shasta Ski Park snow report

543 FXUS66 KMFR 170441 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 941 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... While low clouds exist along the coast impacting KOTH (IFR), conditions should improve tonight with VFR anticipated. In fact, the vast majority of this cycle will likely be VFR for all terminals. Still a very small concern (10%) KRBG could see low/mid clouds later this morning, but confidence was higher to not include this mention at this time. Otherwise, expecting a breezy afternoon on Wednesday with speeds diminishing around sunset. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 430 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026/ ..New Aviation Section... AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... Along/near the coast we have a layer of low clouds impacting KOTH with IFR conditions possible through this evening, but expecting some clearing overnight with VFR conditions thereafter. Farther inland, we have VFR conditions which will likely prevail throughout the valid TAF period. There is some concern for low/mid level clouds around KRBG, but confidence was too low (10% chance) to include at this time. Breezy afternoon wind speeds expected again tomorrow afternoon with speeds diminishing around sunset similar to today. -Guerrero PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1254 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026/ DISCUSSION...It is once again a bright, sunny, and hot day across southern Oregon and far northern California, aside from some marine layer stratus beginning to push its way onshore along and north of Cape Blanco. The heat wave will begin to ebb ever so slightly for areas west of the Cascades today, most notable along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Basin. The upper level pattern responsible for this heat features a strong high pressure just offshore over the eastern Pacific, that will weaken and expand eastward today, eventually settling into the Great Basin region by Thursday. Meanwhile, weak energy will linger off the coast of California and meander westward around this high pressure while it expands/shifts eastward. This energy comes into play for the latter half of the week. In the meantime, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening due to a moderate risk of heat related illnesses. Be sure to take precautions to protect yourself from the heat. If you plan to seek relief in area waterways, please remember that the water is still quite cold, and cold water shock is a real thing. Temperatures do trend cooler for the latter half of the week, but will remain above normal (mid-upper 90s West/upper 80s-low 90s East) until the weekend. So instead of being 15-25 degrees above normal like yesterday, it`ll "cool" to only 10-15 degrees above normal. The upper level pattern shifts on Thursday. That meandering weak energy combines with a few other weak shortwaves passing through in the westerlies and carves out a weak open trough over the eastern Pacific by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures tick upward a few degrees on Thursday under southerly flow, and it`s possible we see another triple degree day here in Medford on Thursday. The larger concern however, is the thunderstorm potential that comes with this pattern transition. It`s almost a guarantee that heat waves conclude with a thunder threat, and it seems this event is no different. Moisture and instability increase on Thursday, and there are some weak shortwaves passing through, but moisture is pretty marginal on Thursday, and focused mainly to our south. It`s more likely that there will be some cumulus buildups with a stray shower across northern California. By Friday, however, the trough nudges closer and moisture looks more favorable for thunderstorms. Currently, it looks like the focus would be across northern California and east of the Cascades, but model guidance shows some potential convection over the Siskiyous, which could bring some storms into southeastern Jackson County. We`ll keep an eye on model trends to see if thunderstorm chances expand westward with time. The trough axis moves through the region Friday night, taking the moisture and instability east of our region for Saturday. It`s possible some isolated activity lingers across far eastern Lake/Modoc counties early Saturday afternoon. The coolest temperatures of the forecast period are expected over the weekend as this trough passes through. Afternoon highs will still be above normal, but only on the level of 5-10 degrees. AVIATION...16/18Z TAFs...Gusty north winds (20-30 kt) are returning to the coast today while other areas will see typical diurnal breezes. VFR will continue in most areas through the TAF period inland. Patches of IFR stratus are possible at the coast north of Cape Blanco through 21z, with potentially more coverage tonight. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026...A thermal trough pattern will strengthen today and persist through Thursday. Conditions will worsen this afternoon with northerly gales south of Cape Blanco and very steep seas spreading north to Cape Arago by tonight. Conditions could improve late Thursday into Friday as the thermal trough pattern weakens, but steep seas and moderate north winds are likely to persist through the weekend. FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026...The heatwave will begin to ebb today for areas west of the Cascades, most notable along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Basin. Meanwhile, temperatures remain hot east of the Cascades and across northern California. With the moderating temperatures west of the Cascades, conditions will be less critical today, but it will still be dry and breezy this afternoon. A weak marine push will bring improving recoveries tonight compared to recent days, but this improvement will be shortlived. The thermal trough will remain along the coast through Wednesday, then push inland on Thursday. This will maintain broad north through east flow across the midslopes/ridges, and poor recoveries are expected again Wednesday night. As the thermal trough shifts inland Thursday, expect another uptick in temperatures across the region. Additionally, this pattern will bring dry and unstable conditions across northern California and east of the Cascades. Meanwhile, an open trough develops offshore over the eastern Pacific on Thursday, moving inland late Friday and east of the region on Saturday. This pattern sets up the potential for thunderstorms during this time frame, focused across northern California and east of the Cascades. Chances for thunderstorms are highest on Friday, but could begin as early as Thursday for southern Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Moisture remains fairly marginal for Thursday, but instability is present. Could just be some cumulus buildups with a stray shower or even an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. As the upper level low moves closer to the coast on Friday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases. Current guidance maintains the best chances across northern California and east of the Cascades, but there is the potential for as far west as Josephine County. By Saturday, the best moisture/instability shifts east, leaving some lingering chances along/east of the Warners/Winter Ridge. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370. && $$