Bryce Resort snow report

283 FXUS61 KRNK 130526 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 126 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The flood watch was expanded south to include Watauga/Wilkes/Yadkin counties. No other changes to the watch. 06z aviation update completed. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Showers/few thunderstorms to bring periods of moderate to heavy downpours especially along/south of NC/VA border today. Key Message 2: Much of the area will be dry with warm/hot conditions for mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Slow moving showers/storms to bring periods of moderate/heavy downpours especially along/south of the VA/NC border today. Front to our south combined with upper shortwave to our southwest will bring east flow at the surface and southwest flow aloft, leading to potential slow moving/stationary showers/storms today. Nudged the flood watch south as better support for heavier downpours will run further south. Could trim the northern portion of the flood watch along US 460 but will hang on as some high-res models depict potential for a band of heavier rain to extend from north of Danville toward Roanoke today. Does look like upper ridge pushing into the Midwest/Great Lakes will send the upper low over the deep south by Monday night, with shower decreasing from north to south into Tuesday. With most of the area in cloud cover this morning, not seeing any severe threat, just flooding. Thanks to plenty of cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures on Monday will likely be similar or slightly cooler than those experienced today. The clouds will keep highs in the 60s to lower 70s from the NC mountains/foothills into the New River Valley. Could see enough sunshine to have lower 80s across the central VA Piedmont west to Lexington, VA. Key Message 2: Much of the area will be dry with warm/hot conditions for mid-week. High pressure will keep much of the region dry during the middle part of the week. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern and western portions of the area. These regions will be farthest away from the center of the high, and by Thursday the next approaching weather system will be over parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Temperatures are expected to trend milder each day, so that by Thursday, values about five to ten degrees above normal will be common across the area. When considering humidity as well, and we will be looking at much of the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina experiencing late afternoon heat index values around or a little over 100 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Poor flying conditions across the area with showers/heavy at times possibly impacting LYH/ROA/BCB/BLF and DAN this morning, then should start to see activity shift south this afternoon but leaving VCSH in. Cigs/vsbys will likely be MVFR to LIFR at times through the morning with higher confidence on IFR or worse. Cigs finally return to VFR late Monday afternoon into Monday evening as high pressure slowly builds in from the north, ending the rain chances. Confidence in the above forecast is moderate. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Expect mainly VFR through the week outside any fog late at night. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ007-009>017-022- 032>034-043>046-058-059. NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ042. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS/JCB/WP AVIATION...DS/JCB/WP