Bryce Resort Snow Report

275 FXUS61 KRNK 150709 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 309 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe weather and flash flooding concerns continue for much of the area through Monday, with dry weather returning areawide by Tuesday of this week behind the passage of a cold front. Heat concerns continue to remain on Monday across the Piedmonts of Virginia and North Carolina. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Daily chances for strong storms with possible flash flooding today through Monday. Hot temperatures are expected on Monday across the VA/NC Piedmonts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Daily chances for strong storms with possible flash flooding today through Monday. Hot temperatures are expected on Monday across the VA/NC Piedmonts. The large scale pattern continues to maintain an upper level ridge across the northern Gulf states, and an upper level trough over the northeast with convective perturbations moving from the Midwest east into the Ohio Valley, and into West Virginia/Virginia. At the surface, a stationary front continues to remain across portions of West Virginia and Virginia, and remains a focal point for afternoon and evening storm development. Current CAM guidance has scattered convection developing during the afternoon hours in an environment with roughly 20 knots of 0-6km deep layer shear, 2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE, and 500-700 J/Kg of DCAPE. This type of environment will be capable of producing strong damaging wind gusts; however, storm nature will predominantly remain multicellular clusters as they track through the area. along with the severe threat, PWATs continue to remain extremely high, with 1.5-2.0 inch PWATs forecast for this afternoon. Values this high will be conducive for flash flooding potential across the region with any strong storms that may remain over the same location or continuously track over the same locations. Some CAM guidance has a late evening MCS moving across central West Virginia and into central Virginia along the I-64 corridor late tonight into the overnight hours. While there is still a lot of uncertainty in this occurring, there have been a couple CAMs that have shown this solution. This would increase any flash flood and severe weather potential across this area if this does occur. No flood watches will be issued at this time given the uncertainty, but could very well be issued in subsequent updates if this CAM guidance continues this trend given the potential for training storms. Not much change in the forecast as scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible again on Sunday with ridge building a little more. The stationary front finally lifts north as a warm front on Sunday before a cold front pushes through the area Monday afternoon and evening. As the upper level ridge nudges east on Sunday and Monday, temperatures will continue to rise, with near Heat Advisory criteria levels possible across the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina on Sunday and Monday. By Monday evening the ridge gets flattened with more shortwaves moving across the area once again. The flow being more westerly may keep storm coverage for east of the mountains somewhat limited. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions are expected at all terminals once again through the TAF period. IFR restrictions have already developed at LWB tonight, and these reduced CIGs and VSBYs will likely continue until the 12-13 UTC timeframe. Expect to also see BLF, LYH, and ROA BCB go down tonight to MVFR/IFR levels, with similar restrictions lifting shortly after sunrise. Afternoon convection looks again possible this afternoon; however, coverage looks to remain scattered in nature. If a terminal is impacted, it can expect brief periods of reduced CIGs and VSBYs as well as erratic winds in and near thunderstorms. Overall, winds will remain light at around 5-10 knots out of the west/northwest for all mountain terminals, and out of the east/northeast for all Piedmont terminals through the TAF period. OUTLOOK... Pattern trend continues with daily chances for storms, though the best chance for organized storms will be today and Sunday. Otherwise more diurnal activity into next week. Mainly VFR outside of any storms and late night fog/stratus. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...EB