Wintergreen Ski Resort snow report

111 FXUS61 KRNK 210559 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 159 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation forecast has been updated. Increasing confidence for afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Heavy downpours likely and possibly strong gusty winds in the stronger storms. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms possible this afternoon, followed by cooler temperatures and continued shower chances into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms possible this afternoon, followed by cooler temperatures and continued shower chances into early next week. A slow-moving cold front will continue to push through the day. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will gradually moves south, just east of the Appalachians through tonight. This front, along with the approaching front from the west will be the main focus for storm development later this afternoon. Still a bit of uncertainty on how fast the backdoor front progresses south, but current observations indicate that progression south has been slow. This leads to slightly better confidence that enough warming will occur across the forecast area to support widely scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon. Although widespread severe storms are not expected, merging clusters of storms will be capable of localized strong wind gusts. Precipitable Water values will continue to rise as well, so storms will have efficient rainfall rates. As a result, localized flooding from runoff in urban and poor drainage areas are possible. Wedging should strengthen on Friday as surface high pressure moves northeast. Temperatures will likely remain on the cooler side of guidance due to widespread cloud cover. Repeated rounds of rain will occur throughout Friday and the upcoming weekend with continued southwest flow advecting moist air north over the shallow wedge. This rain should hopefully bring much needed relief for the ongoing drought conditions. The wedge of high pressure should eventually weaken by Memorial Day. While chances of showers and thunderstorms may continue into early next week, the overall coverage appears more scattered and should resemble a more typical diurnal pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Generally VFR conditions should continue through early this morning, but there may be some scattered showers continuing west of the Blue Ridge. Thunderstorms likely by early afternoon, drifting south through the evening giving way to lingering rain and drizzle tonight. Storms will be capable of very heavy rain, along with the potential for wet microburst in the stronger cells. Clouds will increase today, and ceiling heights should steadily drop through the day. Ceilings should fall toward IFR for most locations by this evening A northeast wind may gust up to 20 knots at DAN and LYH. Northeast flow continues to strengthen tonight resulting in low clouds and fog...expect widespread IFR/LIFR at all terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Chances of showers and clouds should persist through Friday and the upcoming weekend, which will keep ceilings at IFR and MVFR for most terminals. A northeast flow will bring moisture to keep skies generally cloudy and provide several opportunities for patchy fog. Some clearing may take place by Monday to bring ceilings back towards VFR, but there may be scattered afternoon convection. Note: The Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently down due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of this repair is currently unknown. Thus, AMD NOT SKED is being utilized for the BLF TAF. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG AVIATION...BMG/PW