Wisp At Deep Creek Mountain Resort Snow Report

916 FXUS61 KPBZ 020637 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 237 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The severe set up for Wednesday afternoon and evening has a better environment according to the 00Z model update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Additional shower and thunderstorm chances at times through late week, with some possibility for severe storms. 2) Heat and humidity build through Thursday. Heat Advisory issued for Wednesday, September 2. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The 500MB ridge over the central CONUS will shift east as northwest flow sets up over the Great Lakes and into the Upper Ohio Valley. This will set up a series of shortwaves to travel southeast over the region the next few days. The timing of the shortwaves over the next few days will be the main issue as hi- res models and ensembles are not handling the setup very well in the timing and placement. There stands to be some convection in the morning just after dawn but the hi-res CAMs have been very inconsistent with the development. This same case goes for convection later in the day. Some runs of the HRRR have showed nothing all day and some show strong convection crossing the north. The consensus does throw severe convection over the northeastern Counties by the 21Z to 02Z timeframe depending on what run on what model shows it. Winds remains a threat but the hail risk increases as well as a small tornado chance. The next threat falls into Thursday as the front begins to sag south and bringing more the CWA into the storm track/main flow. Sufficient heating and some shear remaining will make for another day of severe convection. Timing a couple days out puts the threat during the evening timeframe. As the front continues to sag south, the very southern extent of the forecast area may see some weak convection on Friday as well. KEY MESSAGE 2... A 500mb ridge extending over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley will help bring in the warmer temperatures through Thursday. The heat should peak Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most areas. This combined with higher humidity is likely to result in heat index values in the upper 90s to 100 Wednesday. A Heat Advisory was issued for eastern Ohio, most of northern West Virginia, and southwestern PA for areas that are likely to reach heat indices of 100F. Heat is forecast to linger into Thursday as the 500mb ridge weakens and moves southeastward. Temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. A trough moving into the area behind the ridge will bring cloud cover and the chance for showers/storms which could inhibit daytime heating. Timing is uncertain in that regard so the Heat Advisory was extended into Thursday though, leaving out more northern counties. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect some patchy spot of fog overnight that may impact a terminal or two. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop by the evening. Thus, mainly a VFR forecast is expected through the morning and into the day. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by the evening and potentially overnight. Impacts to the terminals and flight conditions stands to be FKL, DUJ, and LBE. This will be where IFR conditions and below will be expected in the 00Z to 06Z timeframe. Some impacts to PIT and MGW are possible. Winds are expected to be from the southwest today will; winds up to 10 knots outside of thunderstorms. Outlook... Shortwave movement along the northern periphery of the ridge could create short periods through the week where showers/thunderstorms may occur. Due to difficulties modeling these features, timing/coverage of storm potential may be difficult until 6-12 hours before arrival and cause larger- than-normal fluctuations in TAF storm timing. Additionally, storm environments may be conducive to gusty, erratic winds plus heavy downpours that could contribute to restriction development. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075. OH...Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Heat Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-509. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger