Brodie snow report

155 FXUS61 KALY 050639 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 239 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flash Flood Watch issued for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties for late tonight through Tuesday morning. The Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been expanded across more of the area for Monday into Monday Night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A widespread rainfall is expected late today through early Tuesday with the heaviest amounts likely across the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT. Isolated to scattered flash flooding will be possible, especially within urban and poor drainage areas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A stationary boundary will be stalled just south of the region over the northern mid Atlantic States and waves of low pressure will slowly move along this front between late today and Tuesday. With this stagnant pattern in places, periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop and slowly drift across our area from late today through early Tuesday morning. Some areas will see repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms, which will allow for a threat for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. PWAT values are expected to exceed 2 inches in the mid Hudson Valley, with lowering values further to the north. The values across southern areas are about 150%-180% of normal, which is about 2 STD above normal. Model soundings are showing plenty of signs for excessive rainfall, including a moist profile throughout the column, skinny CAPE profile, high PWATs and surface dewpoints and a high freezing level, indicating the potential for warm-rain processes and efficient rainfall production. Rainfall rates may easily exceed 1 inch per hour within showers and thunderstorms with this setup. The 00z SPC HREF PMM 3hr totals shows pockets of 1-2 inches of rainfall within the high terrain of our southern areas, which are impressive amounts for an ensemble. Even the NBM has up to 30% across southern areas for 6-hr rainfall totals exceeding an inch, which is also noteworthy for blended guidance. CAMs suggest periods of repeated showers and thunderstorms will occur across far southern areas, although the exact northern extent does vary within the different guidance and it`s unclear just how far north the steadier and heavier showers will get. There are also differences showing where the heaviest rainfall totals will be. While many models show bullseyes of several inches of rainfall, they vary whether these will be within or just south of our area. Still, there is enough confidence for the potential for heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding to go with a Flash Flood Watch for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. WPC has also increased their Day 2 (Mon into Mon Night) outlook to include a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) over much of southeastern NY and western New England. Isolated to scattered incidents of flash flooding is expected to occur, especially within urban and poor drainage areas. It won`t be surprising for somewhere within the Northeast to see a localized rainfall total in excess of 5 inches with this system, but it`s exact location is still very unknown at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR for most sites, although KPOU is seeing a little bit of MVFR mist due to the rainfall this past evening. With plenty of clouds around and expected light breeze to stay in place through the rest of the overnight hours, won`t expect widespread thick fog to develop there. While some MVFR mist can`t be ruled out over the next few hours, it should mainly be VFR. Elsewhere, passing mid and high level clouds will allow for generally VFR conditions. Local terrain effects within periods of thin clouds could briefly allow for some mist/fog to try to develop at KGFL, but this is uncertain. Will allow a TEMPO there for some brief fog around daybreak, but it`s rather low confidence at this point. Any fog/mist there will dissipate shortly after daybreak. Winds early this morning will be light from a west to northwest direction, but will start to become south to southeast towards daybreak. During the day today, flying conditions will be VFR through most of the day. BKN-OVC mid and high level clouds will continue with some lower clouds around 5-7 becoming thicker by the afternoon and evening hours. A few showers may spread towards KPOU towards sunset, with a better chance for a period of steadier rainfall there during Sunday night. Within any rainfall, visibility may lower to MVFR range. Elsewhere, it should stay dry with continued VFR conditions into Sunday night, although ceilings will become bkn- ovc around 3500-5000 ft for the other sites. Light east to southeast winds are expected during the day today into tonight. Outlook... Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for CTZ001-013. NY...Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for NYZ063>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...27