Bear Mountain Snow Report

343 FXUS65 KVEF 220750 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1250 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Additional rounds of rain and storms expected across most of the area today. * Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION...through Wednesday. Latest satellite and radar imagery shows two distinct precipitation regimes within the forecast area. The most robust convection exists in Lincoln County where meso-analysis shows MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 knots. This environment will keep a marginal threat of severe weather (mainly hail) and flash flooding present through most of the morning hours. The second regime is more associated with vorticity advection and cold air aloft with the low. This activity is much weaker, but persistent moderate rain with a few storms mixed in may cause minor flooding in the most susceptible areas of Death Valley this morning. As the low pushes inland today, showers and storms will spread east. The greatest coverage is expected along and north of I-15 and AZ Strip (PoPs 50-90%), with more isolated activity between I-15 and I-40 (PoPs 20-50%). The lower instability today should limit the severe potential, but cold air aloft and sufficient vertical shear will keep a marginal risk of severe hail in our northeastern areas. By midnight, precipitation is forecast to be largely out of our CWA, allowing dry conditions to prevail overnight. Isolated shower chances (10-25%) return Friday afternoon as the trough lingers overhead, but most locations remain dry. Ensemble guidance has the trough pinching off into a closed low over the weekend, which means it will be slow to exit the region. On Saturday, models are in good agreement that the low will be centered over northwestern or north-central AZ. This keeps low shower chances (10-25%) over eastern Mohave County, while dry conditions and gusty north winds occur to the west. Dry and calm weather finally returns to the entire forecast area on Sunday and sticks around through Wednesday. During this time, temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly below normal for late October. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds are expected overnight. Increasing south to southwest winds are expected Thursday late morning through the afternoon. Gusts over 20KT are possible, especially after 20Z. Winds will diminish after sunset with gusts ending but elevated south winds around 10KT are expected through Thursday night. Scattered showers are possible Thursday afternoon, with the highest chance for rain at the terminals from 20Z-00Z. Isolated thunderstorms are not out of the question. If showers were to impact the terminals, they could produce brief moderate to heavy rain and CIGs to 5000ft. Anything that is able to develop will diminish after sunset. Expect VFR conditions otherwise with CIGs down to 8000ft at times. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Showers with isolated thunderstorms will persist through the night, with the highest chances in Inyo County into the Southern Great Basin. These showers and storms will shift into southern Nevada Thursday, with additional showers developing further south in California in the afternoon. Any showers could bring moderate to heavy rain, CIGs to 5000ft, and any thunderstorms would possibly produce lightning and sudden gusty winds. Precipitation will diminish and move east into Utah after sunset Thursday. After lighter winds tonight following typical wind trends, breezy south to southwest winds will set up on Thursday. Widespread gusts 15-25KT are expected in the afternoon. Winds will diminish around 03Z. but continued winds around 10-15KT are expected through at least the first part of the night. VFR conditions with BKN CIGs 6000-8000ft at times are expected, CIGs will improve as rain ends. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter