Bear Mountain Snow Report

251 FXUS65 KVEF 110701 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1155 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Well above normal temperatures continue Friday, then temperatures drop 5-10 degrees this weekend. * Isolated convection possible in Northern Mojave and Lincoln Counties Friday. * Breezy south-southwesterly wind gusts expected across the region Friday through the weekend. With reduced humidities leading to fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION...Through Early Next Week While Thursday will likely have been the hottest day of the week, well above normal temperatures continue Friday before temperatures cool down this weekend by 5-10 degrees. A hot airmass is currently in place across the region with 850mb temperature anomalies well above normal for this time of year, supporting highs at or above 100 in desert valleys and in the CRV. The strong ridge which built in overhead earlier in the week is showing signs of breaking down as a trough pushes into the PNW. By Friday, the 500mb high shifts southeast into AZ, then continues eastward through the weekend becoming centered over Southern New Mexico while the PNW trough pushes inland. Influence from the incoming trough, lowering upper heights, and strong subsidence shifting out of the region should all result in cooling surface temperatures across the Mojave Desert and Great Basin. Low and mid level temperature anomalies still remain above normal for this time of year, so still expect daily highs and lows above normal as well...but not at the levels seen this past week. Lingering monsoonal moisture will also help keep nighttime lows elevated the next few days with lows in the 80s likely in desert valleys, preventing much relief from the heat. By next week, a persistent troughing pattern looks to set up over the west coast, keeping southwesterly flow aloft locally and preventing strong ridging from developing overhead. Medium to long range guidance keeps low and mid level temperature anomalies and upper level height anomalies near to slightly above normal for this time of year into next week. This raises confidence that temperatures will continue to run above normal by a few degrees for both highs and lows into the extended period; however with Heat Risk remaining low to moderate, not expecting dangerous heat conditions to return in this pattern. Highs generally in the 90s with lows in the 70s can be expected in desert valleys, the CRV, and death valley in the extended while cooler temperatures are likely at higher elevations. As mentioned above, lingering monsoonal moisture still remains in place for portions of the region just ahead of the trough. Hi-res guidance shows the potential for scattered convection in portions of Lincoln and Mohave counties Friday as a weak disturbance passes through. Added chance wording in the forecast to account for this threat, but not expecting much impacts from anything that does develop. Brief periods of heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds possible with any storm that does develop. The aforementioned trough pushing into the western US will also increase southwest winds across the region. Guidance continues to show a 40 kt mid level jet streak developing overhead Saturday into Sunday. Mixing into this area of stronger winds will result in widespread gusts mixing down to the surface 30-35 mph. There could also be some gusty southerly winds impacting Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu this weekend, which could impact boaters with winds and waves. Since the low to mid level jet ramps up during the overnight hours Friday and Saturday night, the strongest winds in the region may occur in wind prone areas of San Bernardino county with the nightly westerly push and also at higher elevations across the region. Looking at today`s Ensembles and NBM probs, all guidance has kept the threat relatively low for gusts over 40mph. While it does still look breezy with frequent gusts over 30mph, latest trends lower confidence in frequent gusts over 40 mph and the possibility of needing a wind advisory. Still will monitor forecast trends through the week and will update the forecast accordingly. This coupled with very dry conditions has increase fire weather concerns, with a Fire Weather Watch in effect for Nye, Esmeralda, and portions of Lincoln and Clark counties for Saturday. Winds look to reduce for Sunday but remain breezy. Longer term models are starting to favor breezy winds peaking around 25 mph each afternoon into the first half of next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will follow typical directional patterns overnight, and after a period of variability through the morning, winds will shift to the south and southwest by early afternoon. Wind speeds will increase to 10-15KT with gusts to 20-25KT thereafter through the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions will prevail with passing bands of mid-level and high clouds with bases at or above 15kft. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 19Z-02Z, reaching a high of 106 degrees Friday afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds through Friday morning will remain around 5-10KT and follow typical directional patterns. Thereafter through the afternoon and evening, winds shift to the south and southwest, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts to around 25KT. Exceptions to this include KBIH in the northern Owens Valley, where down-valley winds will persist through mid- to late afternoon before shifting to the west with gusts to 20-25KT through sunset, and KDAG/the western Mojave Desert where winds remain westerly through the forecast period with gusts to 20-25KT through late afternoon, increasing to 30-35KT thereafter through the evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with passing bands of clouds with bases at or above 12kft. Isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon over portions of Mohave and Lincoln Counties, though direct impacts at area terminals are not anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER...A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 11AM Saturday through midnight that night for Nye, Esmeralda, and portions of Lincoln and Clark counties. Concerns include RH ranging from 5 to 15% while winds begin to build above 25 mph and gusts approaching 40 mph. Winds will last deeper into that night, but humidities will begin to have some recovery by the late that night. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Moore FIRE WEATHER...Murdock AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter