Bear Mountain Resort Snow Report

818 FXUS65 KVEF 240701 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1158 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend continues through Saturday, with temperatures 3 to 6 degrees above normal. * Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and Thursday 19z-06z, particularly Mohave County and portions of San Bernardino County. * Increasing confidence in clouds, rainfall, and cooler temperatures Sunday-Tuesday as tropical moisture surges northward from systems in the Eastern Pacific && .DISCUSSION...Today through Mid Next Week. Subtle ridging aloft the next few days will support a warming trend through Saturday for the Lower Great Basin and Mojave Desert. Low level temperatures anomalies slowly increase each day supporting temperatures about 3-6 degrees above normal for this time of year. Expect highs in the 90s to low 100s and lows in the 70s to low 80s for desert valleys...cooler at higher elevations. A few day period of cooler temperatures possible Sunday through Tuesday as a trough approaches the region bringing an increase in clouds and possibly rain to the region. (More details below on the impacts from this trough). Highs may struggle to get out of the 80s Sunday through Tuesday, especially along and south of the I-15 corridor where better chances exist for rain and thicker cloud cover. Long range guidance shows ridging building back in for mid to late next week with higher confidence for near to above normal temperatures persisting into early October. Generally dry conditions for the majority of the Mojave Desert and lower Great Basin the rest of the week, with the exception of Mohave County and portions of southern San Bernardino County where isolated storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak troughing sits off the coast of Southern California while ridging builds over Texas and the southeast, placing Arizona and the Four Corners in a modest baroclinic zone with numerous waves riding northward through it. Short term guidance continues to depict a mid level wave tracking northward into Central Arizona, working to advect greater moisture northwestward into the area and providing lift for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. While moisture is only marginal with PW at or under 1.00 inch, enough lift from the aforementioned wave plus orographic lifting from local terrain should be enough to spark off convection. SBCAPE and MUCAPE are only marginal as well, mainly under 750 j/kg, but still enough to support convective development. DCAPE is more substantial around 1500 J/kg lending to a localized damaging wind threat under the strongest storms. At this time, expect isolated storms with brief periods of heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Any convection that develops will weaken quickly after sunset with the loss of heating and increasing subsidence in the wake of the departing/weakening wave. Friday and Saturday look to be the dry days region-wide, then focus shifts to a deepening trough taking shape over the West Coast Sunday through Tuesday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are coming into better agreement today that tropical moisture from both Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be drawn northward ahead of the trough as early as Sunday. Despite better agreement today, ECMWF EFI still shows ensemble agreement only around 50% for significant rainfall outside of climatology for this time of year for portions of the region. There are still discrepancies among guidance in the northward extent of the deeper moisture, exact track of the storms, and timing of features; which overall affects where potentially significant impacts will be. Confidence is slowly increasing that areas along and south of the I-15 corridor could be impacted by clouds, rain, and cooler temperatures... but lower confidence as to what extent. It is still too early to tell where the greatest threat for any prolonged heavy rain or flooding could be; however this is a set up to keep a close eye on. Despite the uncertainty, breezy to gusty southerly and southwesterly winds return over the weekend ahead of this feature due to a tightening pressure gradient, and as the trough translates inland, falling heights will result in a cooling trend starting Sunday that will carry through early next week. Details will be ironed out in coming days. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds continue to affect the terminal through the TAF period. Expect westerly winds to last through the late morning before becoming easterly. These winds will reduce slightly into the late evening and become more variable. Infrequent breezes from the southeast will be possible in the late afternoon and into the evening from distant storm activity. Winds continue to stay light into Thursday night but turn westerly. Mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Mostly light winds are expected across the region through the TAF period as peak prevailing winds stay under 10 kts. Wind directions look to be mostly influenced by local effects and not by larger scale weather patterns, meaning that there is the potential for a good amount of variability in directions particularly with areas seeing very light winds. KEED and KIFP will see some storm spotty storm activity into the late afternoon through the early night, leading to some potential for infrequent, erratic gusts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Moore AVIATION...Murdock For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter